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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

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Old 08-25-2014, 01:24 PM   #11
Bill Lyster
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I am guessing that you are referring to the quote from post 5 of this thread. That quote comes from a post made by Richie P explaining The Hat's marathon method. If you go back thru the thread, searching for Marathon Method or similar you can see the PPs posted from which that result came.

Either that or post a screen shot of the PPs for the horse in question and I will give it another look.

Regards,
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Old 08-25-2014, 02:36 PM   #12
raceman5
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Horse

The name of the horse is archstone that paid 17.00 no way he is this the best at 1 mile using the last race.

Bob
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Old 08-25-2014, 04:22 PM   #13
Bill Lyster
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Well, I respectfully disagree with your statement. It is really a two part process that works together. You should use the entire PPs for each horse noting not only the adjusted final time BUT ALSO THE POSITIONING, as highlighted in the quote below.

[QUOTE=Bill Lyster;97853]This info is in the Hat Check Forum.

"Marathon Distance Races at 10f and Longer
2nd of several posts about this play.

"Marathon Race Spot Play

For this Spot Play we have FOUR keys to work with.

1) We are going to work TODAY’S race as if the distance is 8f. We are going to adjust the pp lines for the horses to make them all 8f to match today’s virtual distance.

Do NOT adjust the pace calls of the races. Only the final times please.

2) We are going to use 6.2 seconds (in fifths) to adjust each 1/2 furlong on pacelines to get them to the 8f distance.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 8.5f and the final time 1:42 subtract 6.2 seconds to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.3 for the 8f.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 9f and the final time is 1:48 subtract 6.2 seconds TWICE or 12.4 to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.1.

3) We are going to use the stretch call of the marathon distance races in the pp’s which is 8f. We will stop those marathon races THERE.

4) Once we do the above we are then going to use POSITIONING and pace of race and match up the horses to find the horse that will be leading at 8f.

THAT is the horse we will bet.

**Important**

I would strongly suggest going back and reading and re-reading the POSITIONING post in the 8 month update thread. THIS is vital to work these races and a clear understanding of POSITIONING is needed.
This Note was made by Richie P in his original instruction.

Lets go thru the field. The 1 can barely break 140 and the 9 can't break 141, so both are out.

the 2's best TIME & POSITIONING is 134.3, running 12-10-5 (1st call/2nd call/stretch call - ONLY)

The 3 ran 135.7, running from 4-4-3 AND 135.4 running from 3-3-1

The 4 ran 136.3 from 9-9-10

the 5 ran 135.6 in its Maiden win from 7-6-4. Note the mile times in mile races (not preferred) after the maiden win do not get better, even if you excuse its last for steadied start.

the 6 ran 136.3 from 2-3-1 and 136.5 from 4-3-3

the 7 ran 134.4 from 5-7-5

the 8 ran 135.9, from 7-9-4 and 134.1 from 6-5-6

So who is the fastest. Well it looks like the 7 or the 2 or the 8, but look where they are positioned, the 7 losing positions from 1c to 2c and the 2 running v. sustained 12-10-5 and the 8 runs 6-5-6 (giving up stretch position)

Who is both close to the lead and relatively fast. The 3. He ran 4-3-3 and 3-3-1 with almost a full second advantage, timewise on the 6 who ran 2-3-1 and 4-3-3.

the two horses that ran closest to the lead ran 1st, 2nd and surprisingly the 9 who ran 4-2-3 and 1-1-1 in very slow times, finished 3rd. The 3 and 6 were closest to the lead at all three calls of the races considered.

None of the sustained horses could get close to the lead.

Just for clarification I would probably look at the 2 and see that its first two lines showed no positioning improvement, in fact declining positioning from its fastest and not even consider him a fast horse. the 8 is somewhat in the same situation having run 6-5-6 and 134.1 in line 5 and then in line 2 7-9-4. You would hope that the slower time would result in more horses passed, which happened, but still, the horse could only be 4th by almost 5 lengths!

So, time is one thing, but equally important is positioning. In this case even though the 3 and 6, in the lines used, were 2nd, 3rd or 4th in THOSE fields, you have to envision them being 1st or 2nd in THIS field. Horses coming from the back end of the field in these marathon races, really need a significant time cushion to be considered over horses on or near the lead.

The actual finish of this race was 3-6-9-7
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Old 08-27-2014, 09:25 AM   #14
raceman5
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Thanks

That ans my question excellent. Actually I was reading thru the hat section yesterday because I like to brush up on my match up techniques at least every 90 days. He has a great spot play for sprints to routes that has paid dividends once this week already. I had totally forgot about that method, that's why I do a brush up every 90 days. Does anyone know if Jim had anymore spot plays with the match up? Just wondering if I missed something in my readings.

Bob
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