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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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03-06-2018, 09:57 PM | #1 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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BL/BL Values
I got this private message after today's Parx race
Quote:
Hello Its no problem. I am glad you asked. it is easier for me to explain here than on a message. Here is my RX screen for the race. If you will notice, The winner horse #3 only has a rating of 4 on BL/BL . Back when we only had BL/BL and VDC , betting a horse ranked with only a single digit and no supporting good readouts was not a high percentage winning bet. Here is the BLBL screen from race 8. Horse 3 not only is last in BLBL of my contenders It would be last even with the non contenders I try to bet contending horses with BLBL values over 10 on the RX screen. I spread out with 4 of the horses for my double but the 3 won this time. So now how often do horses with less than a value of 10 win ? I have two spreadsheets going. Spreadsheet 1 is my best of last 3 spreadsheet. 98% of which was created from the RDSS auto pace line selection option best of last 3 while I was sick. There are 1700 races in that speadsheet. I have filtered out all races except for races at Parx and there are no maiden races . This knocked the number of winners down to 170 In 170 race horses with a value less than 10 won 56 times The winner had a value on BLBL over 10 114 times. On my second spreadsheet , I am using FTL's guidelines . I have no maiden races . I only record races I bet, So this spreadsheet has far fewer races , only 67 In 67 races the winner had a value under 10 only 9 times - including today's 8th race In 67 races the winner had a BLBL over 10, 58 times I missed one today when the 3 horse won but the percentages are small when this happens. Here is a chart from my FTL spreadsheet about which values of BLBL are winning the most. |
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03-07-2018, 12:28 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Bill,
Are you still using Val4 mode or Default? |
03-07-2018, 01:59 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Default
Hi Tim Here is what I use |
03-07-2018, 02:03 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Got it. I know you stuck with the old Val4 calculations forever and ever. Have you noticed any discernible difference in how it rates the horses as the different modes do calculate the beaten length values differently?
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03-08-2018, 09:53 AM | #5 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
No, I have not noticed, But I don't really compare things. I just use what ever setting and just stick with it. It's true I stuck with the Val 4 mode for many years. When I came home from the hospital and for about a month before that, I was reduced to simply recordings races and entering the data into my spreadsheet, I was sending reports to Ted but not betting, Since Ted uses the same settings as I was, Our records matched. and Ted did not have to invest the time in gathering the data . Once I began to bet again I never though to change the settings. Like I said If there is any difference, I never noticed it. When using FTL's guidelines and being way more selective in my races. I really don't think the difference is important. Because of the low percentages of winners overall, I ignore for win, horses changing distance structure , That is sprint to route and route too sprint And surface switches turf to dirt and dirt to turf. Now I am looking at comparable plus or plus within a zero pace lines only So beaten length calculations are less important. I use the tote readouts -All RDSS users will have this ability again soon. to help me evaluate secondary contenders for my exacta bets Thanks Bill |
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