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Hat Check - How Can We Help You? Jim 'The Hat' Bradshaw - Learn The Matchup

 
 
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Old 10-02-2006, 11:34 AM   #1
RichieP
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La Mafia che paragona i cavalli da corsa

Bill Varone
Charlie Rescigno
Giuseppe Ledda (Pino)
Richie Pizzicara

The "Italian Mafia" is really working hard on the matchup. Jim's 5 step approach is the foundation we are all using.

I have asked the " Mob" if they would come and post individually:

1) something that is HELPING them matchup wise
2) something that is HURTING them matchup wise

I ran this by Jim and he thinks it's cool.

For ME:

Positives:
1) Really focusing on the FIRST call helps me a lot. From here everything else flows: Projected pace - Running styles - Positioning - Eliminating slow horses in bunches

2) Tandems help: when they are fast I can often throw the whole rest of the field out. When they are very slow those guys get tossed quickly.

Negatives:
1) I have to pay more attention to the running style of the horse when it WINS or runs extremely well. I am losing races betting horses based on running styles that are DIFFERENT from their WINNING style. Big difference between a style that wins and a style that runs third by 6 lenghts for example.

2) I am losing races because I still go against my first instinct about a race and horse. HAVE to get better here if I am gonna get my win % up. HAVE TO. Jim calls these losses " screw ups" cause there is no damn way I shoulda lost them. But I did.

I am really looking forward to getting my hands on the new book too! Should be a blast.

Richie
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Old 10-02-2006, 02:01 PM   #2
admin
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pro/con

Hello fellow Match Up students

Fro me the biggest hurdle is the tandem step
Most of the tandems I can deal with I'm finding that
many times I see a race were in a 8 horse files there is a race were two of the horse in the race finished close like 2nd and 3rd of something similar These races many times make the match up easy many times these two horses are the win bets for the race

My problem is like what happen in race two from the Meadowlands Friday night
opening night 9/29
the 1 horse 4 horse 8 horse and 9 horse all came from the same race last time
also the 2 horse ran against these guys a few races back
This type of race is very troubling for me
epically since the order of finish in the tandem race was

the 8 horse won the 1 horse placed the 4 horse ran third
the 9 with Joe bravo riding this horse this time ran the
speed ratings were
74
73
71
68
The trouble was no one of the none tandem horses
looked better I knew it was the 1 4 or 8
since I could not break the Match Up I bet the 8
to Win/Place kind of figuring Joe bravo was the favorite on the 9
he probably would win if not my eight
The 4 won I lost

A big positive is the ability to narrow a race down to the best Early the best
E/P the best Presser and the best Sustained horse
based on picking lines from the projected pace of the race then entering them into Energy
only entering four horses is a breeze and Energy is a great program

Thanks Bill
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Old 10-02-2006, 06:45 PM   #3
gl45
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Positive

I'm able to read PP's with a clear understanding of what I'm looking for.
I can define contenders and select paceline with more confidence.
Devoid of mainstrean race analysis. Just Times and Positions.

Negative
Beaten Lentghs in a paceline. That does mess me up. Contender or Not?
Interpretation of Units of Energy by positions and BLs.
Not able to pass a race when there are too many contenders. Obstinately I have to find the winner, and I lose all the time.

I have some more but I'm running out of time. Mountneer is call me, good card tonight.

Pino
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Old 10-03-2006, 12:10 AM   #4
cprescigno
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Posts: 258
I don't mind saying that the message header I interpreted it as Cavatelli Parmagiana and figured with some Broccoli Rape and Sausage I could make myself hungry. Let me not forget a loaf of Italian Bread........

I've been working on the Match Up for about five months now. I don't always get as much time as I would like working the races but I am progressing definitely. When I started I used to write every paceline down. When I got better at it I just wrote my contenders down. Now I'm at the point where I don't have to write anything down and work from my projected paceline matching the contenders in my head. The tandems help tremendously in limiting the contenders.
At this point the only time I write anything down is when a race is loaded early. I have trouble juggling five or six horses with close first and second calls in my head. I'll probably get better at it but not there yet.
When I started I was only able to do three or sometimes four races before getting tired and having to stop. Even that took well over half an hour per race. Now I can do an entire card and I am a lot quicker at it without getting fatigued.
I usually hit about 50% of the races I play. I play a one win bet always looking for doubles and pick 3's. I went 3 for 4 tonight at MNR with one exacta. Real strong lead horse so I was just looking for place.

I haven't used a computer program in five months. It's all working from the PP's manually matching the horses. It's like an exercise for the mind, the more you do it, the better and faster you get at it. I work off the computer screen using the Post Time Dialy files. I find that I can see those better than the printed PP's.

Shortcomings
I still am not getting the focus and concentration level that I think will come as I keep working the Match Up.
I still have some trouble with races loaded early.
I definitely have trouble when there isn't a clear pace horse.
I am not nearly as accurate as I want to be. Would like to get to 3/5 or even 4/5 on a regular basis.
I still get rocked when I completely miss. Last Friday I missed all three races in a pick 3 bet. It definitely rocked me. Had no confidence at all the next day.
I have very little experience with the different tracks. I sometimes don't know when a paceline from a shipper is valid or not for the track I am working.

The biggest positive of the Match Up for me is having the ability to evaluate and successfully pick a winner manually using proper evaluation of the pacelines. It's much more satisfying than pumping the numbers into a computer program. Much more satisfying!

My biggest problem with the slew of programs out there is that they apply a fixed set of rules to come to valid contenders. You still have to evaluate those contenders to pick a winner. That being the case I prefer evaluating the pacelines and working the race manually allowing my intuition and experience to select my contenders. After going through this process it's usually clear which horse is going to win.

Charlie
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Old 10-03-2006, 09:24 AM   #5
gl45
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I agree with Charlie, the more you work on the Matchup, the more you develop an intuition about the race. Call it Vodoo or whathever, it works.
With Richie guidance, I'm now able to pass races that don't make any sense, races where there are at least 5 contenders, or races where I can't define the pace, or horses racing style.
Last night at Mount was a good night. Me and Richie had great time.
Thanks Richie
Pino
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Old 10-14-2006, 11:58 PM   #6
Turbulator
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This Might Help

Quote:
Originally Posted by admin View Post
Hello fellow Match Up students

Fro me the biggest hurdle is the tandem step

Most of the tandems I can deal with I'm finding that
many times I see a race were in a 8 horse files there is a race were two of the horse in the race finished close like 2nd and 3rd of something similar These races many times make the match up easy many times these two horses are the win bets for the race

My problem is like what happen in race two from the Meadowlands Friday night
opening night 9/29
the 1 horse 4 horse 8 horse and 9 horse all came from the same race last time
also the 2 horse ran against these guys a few races back
This type of race is very troubling for me
epically since the order of finish in the tandem race was

the 8 horse won the 1 horse placed the 4 horse ran third
the 9 with Joe bravo riding this horse this time ran the
speed ratings were
74
73
71
68
First of all, if I might interject here: what does the jockey and the speed ratings have to do with the matchup? Just a question, not a criticism.

Quote:
The trouble was no one of the none tandem horses
looked better I knew it was the 1 4 or 8
since I could not break the Match Up I bet the 8
to Win/Place kind of figuring Joe bravo was the favorite on the 9
he probably would win if not my eight
The 4 won I lost
Again with the jockey. ;--)


From Pace Makes the Race
Advanced Concepts
Howard Sartin

The amazing effectiveness of the tandem procedure comes from two sources. First, our research reveals that winners repeat a win their next race (within 30 days) an overall average of 18% of the time. The figure ranges from 15% in lower class horses at secondary tracks, to 27% for handicap and stakes horses, or those posting wins by four or more lengths…at tracks like Santa Anita, Del Mar, etc., winners repeat on an average of 24% of the time.

We also found that horses who come in second last race, win next out 10% more often than winners. In fact, over 50% of all races are won by horses who finished in the money, last effort. About 60% are won by horses finishing no worse than fourth in their last race.

[Now here is the interesting part]

But in a tandem race, these figures are skewed. Winners repeat a maximum of only twelve percent of the time. Horses that placed in a tandem win 30% more than normal: horses that showed, came in fourth or within 3.75 lengths, win 40% of the time. (All of these statements are contingent on having two or more of today’s qualifiers from the tandem race, and the best tandem horse scoring in the top three (and ties) TPRs (total pace ratings) in today’s race.)

Steve
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Old 10-21-2006, 08:00 PM   #7
RichieP
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Posts: 7,014
Update - 3 weeks later

Positive:

1) HIDING the ml odds when working a race.

The difference between working a race matching just HORSES rather than matching then seeing an EXPECTATION of payoffs is unreal. I dont know how the hell Jim saw this in my play but he did.

ANYONE seriously matching Jim's way who comes from a "value oriented" backround like me HAS to make every attempt to lose the EXPECTATION of payoff when working and matching a race. The difference is startling.

SERIOUSLY

nuff said

Rich
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Old 10-22-2006, 06:16 AM   #8
admin
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Quote:
Bill Varone
Charlie Rescigno
Giuseppe Ledda (Pino)
Richie Pizzicara

The "Italian Mafia" is really working hard on the matchup. Jim's 5 step approach is the foundation we are all using.

I have asked the " Mob" if they would come and post individually:

1) something that is HELPING them matchup wise
2) something that is HURTING them matchup wise

I ran this by Jim and he thinks it's cool.
Hi Steve
Thank you for your help

I posted my true feelings. from a race that I bet and lost

you are correct about jockeys trainers and speed ratings
having nothing to do with the Match Up

My feelings about Joe Bravo and his horse being the favorite
and the speed ratings of his horse compared to the three horses
in the 1 - 4 - 8 tandem
had more to do with my betting decision
I felt at the time of the original post that rather than bet two
horses I would bet only one of these three Win and Place
to take my shot against the Fav with no readout support

Ok so here was my thinking
taking into account that this was one of the very first races
I ever did with out software ,with out Mr Bradshaw or Rich
around and Live at the track with its built in distractions
I found myself very troubled by the tandem
I posted my true feelings That with out software I questioned my
self why I left the favorite out and went to the 8 win/place
instead .

The post was made about 1 month ago
I feel that with Mr Bradshaw and Rich's help
I have improved my tandem race skills
I still am freaked out by tandems but I want to win and feel that
honest posting about actual races were I bet my money
helps me the most
Thank you again for your help
I truely appreciate it.
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Old 11-04-2006, 08:11 AM   #9
RichieP
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Posts: 7,014
5 weeks later - update

about 2 weeks ago I started getting some " feedback" from that little voice in my head before a few races.

I would be all ready to "mark" a horse ( "Marking" is my trigger to BET a horse if 3/2 or higher AND to realize this is no doubt the horse and NO returning to the race to review if a loss occurs) and this doubt would come into my mind
questioning if this really was the horse. It would come out of nowhere BUT it was clear and loud in my mind.

Over the first 5 days this happened 4 or 5 times. I bet the horse each time. Every time the horse lost.

I mentioned this to Jim and told him from that day forward I would not bet the horse when this happened. He suggested I track the results of this. He said it was part of my intuition coming out after 6 months of HARD focused work on the Matchup.

Since that day 8 horses have given me this negative mental feedback. I stopped betting on them. NONE have won.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horses making BIG moves POSITIONALLY going from 1c-2c or 2c-sc need serious focused attention. Gaining positions is gaining UNITS OF ENERGY according to Jim. This being true these FAST MOVERS early in the race can be given units of Energy to work with against the other contenders. They make their move a bit premature in the paceline usually.

After giving them the proper units in today's matchup( and that line makes him a FAST horse in today's matchup) look to see if they might be a bit closer to the leader in OTHER races showing on the pp's. You don't have to worry bout pace of race in those other lines. Focus on POSITION.

If they do you might have uncovered a BOMB waiting to blow up the other competitors in todays race. The 2 biggest priced horses I have seen "Matching" (over $ 60.00) have this in common. The public can NOT see this.

I am using a 1/1 ratio ( 1 unit available for every 1 position gained) and it is working pretty darn good. Spectacular results in a couple of races.

Definitely something to watch for and consider when matching in my opinion.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

I just want to thank Jim here.

He has taught and is still teaching me things regarding both horse racing AND life that will serve me for the rest of my days. He is a mentor and a friend who gives of his time and energy when there are other things in his life he could be doing.

I can never express in words how cool this past 6 months have been. Truly a humbling experience.

Thanx "Hat"

Richie



.
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Old 11-04-2006, 08:42 AM   #10
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Priceless

Gli amici che aiutano gli amici vincono l'amico di A che li aiuta con più di voi potrebbero immaginare mai e quell'amico è un amico allineare per vita priceless..

Bill
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