Preakness

[Charlie D]

Looks between Derby Winner and Oaks winner to me.

Big Drama or Friesan Fire to fill 3rd, maybe even 2nd and 3rd if this comes a bit quick for Mine That Bird .

[Tim Y]

There is an "unwritten" rule in the Sartin methodology and that is NOT to use the Derby pace performance line in evaluating the Preakness.

The BIRD's race was so ATYPICAL and the trip was so lucky, that using that would really be SAMPLE ERROR on Depo-Medrol ( a steroid).

Whenever I see a horse with multiple lines of a certain energy type and THEN BOOM a LATE LATE one shows up? They RARELY, if EVER repeat that one. RARELY.

[Vinnie]

Hello Tim:

I hope that you are doing well? Tim, in your opinion do you believe that MTB will fire with the same late kick to get up and get a piece or possibly win in the Preakness, or do you believe as you had mentioned in your last post that his late Derby kick may have been an aberration of sorts?

I think that it is going to be very interesting to see if Mike Smith can get him to lay off the pace as before in the Derby, can he get up with that late type of explosive burst as he showed us in his last effort. I personally don't see it happening, but, if he can, "maybe he is all of that and a bunch of crab cakes"!

Vinnie

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

Hello Tim:

I hope that you are doing well? Tim, in your opinion do you believe that MTB will fire with the same late kick to get up and get a piece or possibly win in the Preakness, or do you believe as you had mentioned in your last post that his late Derby kick may have been an aberration of sorts?

aberration of a typical sort: a late lucky move

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

aberration of a typical sort: a late lucky move

you don't win the Preakness with decelerations over 100

[Vinnie]

Very interesting statistic Tim. Thanks for sharing.

Have a Good day and Good skill always.

Vinnie

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

Very interesting statistic Tim. Thanks for sharing.

Have a Good day and Good skill always.

Vinnie

here to show you what I mean

[Vinnie]

Thanks again Tim! Friesan Fire really worries me as to not include him as an underneath horse in a couple of my wagers in this race. However, you have to take a stance either one way or the other at some point. I really don't believe that he will win, and after his effort in the Derby, I don't look for him to return with a monster effort on Saturday. Of course, I could be wrong and he could crush the field.... For some reason that I can't readily quantify I feel that if he gets out quickly and is forwardly placed with the likes of Big Drama and Rachel, etc.. the pressure will get to him and he will falter before the race gets into the final couple of furlongs. I may have to include him underneath on a trifecta ticket however, because he might just come up big enough to bite me if I don't.

I just hope that he is sound right now and that he runs safely tomorrow.

Vinnie

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

I just hope that he is sound right now and that he runs safely tomorrow.

Vinnie

This week I have spoken with our track vet and several horsemen about grabbing a quarter. EACH and everyone of them said six weeks off MINIMUM or you are risking the horse's health

[Vinnie]

Thanks once again Tim. From everything I have ever heard of Larry Jones, he is a total class guy, but, I just hope that he and his connections aren't seeing FF as one last chance to shoot for a nice pay day by entering him here when where the horse is concerned it may not be the best of moves.