THUS AP 5/28 Race 6 - Pace and Cap

mikesal57 · 05-28-2009, 09:39 AM

Hi....match-up

#9....2nd race on poly
improved speed held well vs 45.3 half
2 sharp works since last
20% win jock up

Not much speed in this race...can sit 2nd or 3rd or even fire to lead

2 tandem horses, that be him, afraid of the 5

p.s- dont even say it!!! #10

mike

raceman5 · 05-28-2009, 11:23 AM

for the pp's of the race Mike. Think i will take a .50 super box of the 2-3-5-7-10. My knocks on the 5 are that this is for NW2L and he has had 11 starts. In these races i tend to lean towards lightly raced horses and the 5 has never put back to back good races together.

Bob

mikesal57 · 05-28-2009, 11:26 AM

good...anytime we have an excuse not to bet a fav ...I'll bite

dont like my 9

mikesal57 · 05-28-2009, 11:30 AM

prime spots for these..
2 horses that might be coming into form

# 6...power move 2 back...speed in last

#10..winning pattern from his PP in past...layoff,,sprint to route

bot horses won here at AP...and rest of bunch has problems at AP

gl mike

Bill Lyster · 05-28-2009, 01:58 PM

I agree that speed is pretty weak here. If 11 sets the pace off its last, the EPR = 90, LPR = 78.5. Looking at the 9 in its early runs anywhere near 90 shows that the high seventies are about as good as it can do. 9 was 3rd tandem horse, so I tossed as well.

this race looks to set up for pressers IMHO and recall Richie's post about off pace horses here at Arlington which helps this analysis.

I was tempted to consider the 8 -La Mandy of its second line, but this horse is very strange looking. Again look at the E/L readout. No matter what the early pace this horse can't exceed the mid 81's except for one slop race. So max speed for this one is 81.5, the horse normally runs 2-5 lengths off the lead and there are better closers in the field.

The 5 and 7 out of the tandem and the 6 - Niki's. The 8 furlong first after layoff has a total energy the same as sprints from lines 3 and 7 and = to the TE of the 5 and 7. The mile E/L pretty much matches the best sprint. Might not win but should contend pretty well.

The tandem might repeat but historically the five has run closer to the lead than it did in the tandem while the seven appears to have a better late kick.

I can't separate these three, so I'm boxing 5-6-7

Bill Lyster · 05-28-2009, 02:11 PM

AP 10

Agree on the 6. Reverting to best running style could reverse the tandem, but give the 2 and 11 out of the tandem some chance here as well. the 11 should get first run of these three and pace is almost nil; 6 is next closest as long as it doesn't go early like last time. I like 6 and 11 over the 2 here

Bill Lyster · 05-28-2009, 02:16 PM

AP 9 6 furlongs:

I couldn't find any horses to pressure the 2nd line back from the 6 [m/l 8/1] on the lead: 22.0-45.1-57.8-111.4, but the 3 and 4 can close to about the projected final time, but each closes from stretch times slower than 57.8, with both looking to be on the order of 5 lengths back at that point.

mikesal57 · 05-29-2009, 03:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

AP 9 6 furlongs:

I couldn't find any horses to pressure the 2nd line back from the 6 [m/l 8/1] on the lead: 22.0-45.1-57.8-111.4, but the 3 and 4 can close to about the projected final time, but each closes from stretch times slower than 57.8, with both looking to be on the order of 5 lengths back at that point.

whew...bad start...dont u hate that when it happens

6th race...the 9 didnt even fire

10th race...my 14-1 #10 got beat by a 25-1 horse

Bill Lyster · 05-29-2009, 01:49 PM

I can't even follow my own admonitions. Haven't been too many wire jobs at Arlington and I used a maiden winner's line without giving the favorite (off its maiden line big pressing win! Sheesh.)

As far as the last, the winner was third in the tandem. I didn't watch the odds after betting early - ouch here too!

Hopefully, I'll be smarter today and tomorrow.

05-28-2009, 11:23 AM	#2
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,295	Thanks for the pp's of the race Mike. Think i will take a .50 super box of the 2-3-5-7-10. My knocks on the 5 are that this is for NW2L and he has had 11 starts. In these races i tend to lean towards lightly raced horses and the 5 has never put back to back good races together. Bob

05-28-2009, 11:26 AM	#3
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	good...anytime we have an excuse not to bet a fav ...I'll bite dont like my 9 __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

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05-28-2009, 01:58 PM	#5
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	I agree that speed is pretty weak here. If 11 sets the pace off its last, the EPR = 90, LPR = 78.5. Looking at the 9 in its early runs anywhere near 90 shows that the high seventies are about as good as it can do. 9 was 3rd tandem horse, so I tossed as well. this race looks to set up for pressers IMHO and recall Richie's post about off pace horses here at Arlington which helps this analysis. I was tempted to consider the 8 -La Mandy of its second line, but this horse is very strange looking. Again look at the E/L readout. No matter what the early pace this horse can't exceed the mid 81's except for one slop race. So max speed for this one is 81.5, the horse normally runs 2-5 lengths off the lead and there are better closers in the field. The 5 and 7 out of the tandem and the 6 - Niki's. The 8 furlong first after layoff has a total energy the same as sprints from lines 3 and 7 and = to the TE of the 5 and 7. The mile E/L pretty much matches the best sprint. Might not win but should contend pretty well. The tandem might repeat but historically the five has run closer to the lead than it did in the tandem while the seven appears to have a better late kick. I can't separate these three, so I'm boxing 5-6-7

05-28-2009, 02:11 PM	#6
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	AP 10 Agree on the 6. Reverting to best running style could reverse the tandem, but give the 2 and 11 out of the tandem some chance here as well. the 11 should get first run of these three and pace is almost nil; 6 is next closest as long as it doesn't go early like last time. I like 6 and 11 over the 2 here

05-28-2009, 02:16 PM	#7
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	AP 9 6 furlongs: I couldn't find any horses to pressure the 2nd line back from the 6 [m/l 8/1] on the lead: 22.0-45.1-57.8-111.4, but the 3 and 4 can close to about the projected final time, but each closes from stretch times slower than 57.8, with both looking to be on the order of 5 lengths back at that point.

05-29-2009, 01:49 PM	#9
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	yeah well.... I can't even follow my own admonitions. Haven't been too many wire jobs at Arlington and I used a maiden winner's line without giving the favorite (off its maiden line big pressing win! Sheesh.) As far as the last, the winner was third in the tandem. I didn't watch the odds after betting early - ouch here too! Hopefully, I'll be smarter today and tomorrow.