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Old 04-16-2017, 02:17 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Possible Derby horses and their races so far

Horses that have run in graded stakes that might be Derby bound.

This was done for the Hat's Marathon handicapping procedure. The first worksheet shows races and top finishers, the second shows each horse with last race first; the 3rd ranks the horses by best mile time of each horse, the last is ranked by best race mile time.


Derby Contenders Early Speed 2017.xlsx
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Old 04-16-2017, 02:55 PM   #2
lone speed
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Where have you been??

Bill Lyster,

Thanks for your hard work...You have been very busy..quietly but very busy

That's a lot of data input in your Excel worksheet

Thanks for sharing
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Old 04-16-2017, 04:48 PM   #3
mowens33
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Bill, thanks!

This is Great!!

Mike
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Old 04-16-2017, 05:12 PM   #4
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Thanks guys, amazing what you can do when you retire.
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Old 04-16-2017, 05:27 PM   #5
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Disclaimers

Info taken from official charts. For 8.5 races the charts show the mile time, but I used the stretch call time and lengths back. Its not exactly right but close enough. Hopefully, horses progress to 9 f races where the data at stretch call = mile distance. If in doubt use the 9f race data.

I use the 2 YO info for reference only. If a horse raced quickly at 2 and at 3 has not approached the earlier performance, do not use 2 YO info -- been mislead too many times by this data. Besides the horses are supposed to be improving this time of year and an early time of year regression is not what we should be looking for.

You can monitor improvement from earlier to later races either by improved time or improved position in the races, or both. You can delete horses as they drop out of the Derby picture, but I suggest renaming the file before deleting such horses. You never know if they will show up for the Preakness or Belmont (both Marathons in my opinion).

The 3/4 - 9F column is adjust by lengths back so you can get an idea of who might close the fastest. Be sure to correlate with positions gained that match up with this late effort.

That ought to cover it for now. good luck using this stuff. oh yeah, if I missed any Grade 1 or 2 races or horses from those races, let me know and I will add them in if it looks like they might be competitive, or just as easily, do it yourself.

Bill
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Old 04-23-2017, 09:27 AM   #6
RichieP
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Hi guys
I have not had time to look at 3 yr olds but does anyone know the status of Hence? Is he Derby bound, has he run recently?

Thanx in advance and good work Bill!!!
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Old 04-23-2017, 09:50 AM   #7
lone speed
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Steve Haskin's comments about Hence

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP View Post
Hi guys
I have not had time to look at 3 yr olds but does anyone know the status of Hence? Is he Derby bound, has he run recently?

Thanx in advance and good work Bill!!!
Her you go Richie...
Great to see you posting again..I have enjoyed immensely your prior work on the top two Derby horses and their energy distributions on Sartin's programs and of course, your teachings from Jim"the Hat" Bradshaw.

Excerpt from Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen:

"Hence Steve Asmussen
Street Boss—Floating Island, by A.P. Indy
It looks like his bandwagon is filling up fast, and I can see him moving up the list as we get closer to the Derby. With Irap’s victory in the Blue Grass Stakes and Conquest Mo Money’s gutsy second in the Arkansas Derby, the Sunland Derby is looking better and better, and he totally dominated that race with a powerful 5-furlong sustained run, sweeping past horses on the far outside and getting floated wide by Conquest Mo Money turning for home. Not only did he crush his field by nearly 4 lengths in 1:48 flat, with another gap of 4 lengths back to the third horse, his 103 Brisnet speed figure is the fastest last-out number of any of the Derby horses. In addition, he is one of the early arrivals at Churchill Downs and is working brilliantly, breezing a half in :47 4/5 and then working 5 furlongs in 1:00 2/5 in company with Local Hero, coming home his final eighth in :11 4/5 and galloping out 6 furlongs in 1:13 2/5 and 7 panels in 1:27 in a terrific lung opener that should have him fit and tight for the Derby. This was the kind of work you wanted to see from a horse who is going to have 6 weeks between races. And as I have mentioned on numerous occasions, his remarkable maiden victory at Oaklawn was one of the great recoveries from near disaster you’ll ever see. I still don’t know how he managed to win that race. What happened to him in the Southwest Stakes is one of the many mysteries that likely will go unsolved, along with Irish War Cry’s debacle in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Gormley’s uninspiring effort in the San Felipe Stakes. Now with Classic Empire, this no doubt is the year of the rebound performance. We’ll have to see if the colt will have a change of riders in the Derby, as Asmussen’s phone I’m sure has been ringing constantly."

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Old 04-23-2017, 10:44 AM   #8
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Hence's pp

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Old 04-23-2017, 11:21 AM   #9
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A little closer to race day, I will update the spreadsheet. Take note of those who won or placed in grade 1 or grade 2 races, raced well this year, and those who press well.

Here is an excerpt from a Jon White recent article. It supports The Hat's basis for the Marathon Method.

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Approximately the same stats hold for the SA Handicap and any race of 10 furlongs and longer.

Good handicapping.
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Old 05-02-2017, 07:29 PM   #10
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A little premature look at the best Derby horses

The top 4 are my possible pace setters with perhaps Irish War Cry running 47+-112, with the other three helping push that pace or faster. IWC ran against the fastest mile time and of these 4 closes the best in 37.05 for the last three furlongs.

The race with the fastest mile time is Always Dreaming's race on 4/1 at Gulfstream. State of Honor and Gunnevera ran in that race but lost by 5 or more.

Gormley ran in a fast race and while his running style might be more suited to sitting off the pace instead of pressing, his final 3 furlong time of near 40 in each race demands great improvement in order to win this race.

Girvin ran two similarly great races running 5-4-1 and 4-4-1, being on the lead at the mile or stretch call in each one. His 36.4 close at FG in Feb is second or third best overall, he looks like he runs far enough off the pace not to be caught up in any pace duel.

Classic Empire, Untrapped, Sonneteer Patch, and Lookin at Lee will all run late. Classic Empire improved in his last and I cannot leave him out of my ticket. Even though a maiden, Sonneteer has passed horses and did it quickly late (36.22)

Always Dreaming, Girvin and Classic Empire, in that order, are my top three

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