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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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11-13-2017, 08:06 PM | #71 | |
Grade 1
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Quote:
In any given year, roughly 10% of all starters have not had a race in the last 90 days. Then,roughly 10% from that group win. I think anyone reading this will understand that 10% from a group of 10% leaves a very small group. 10% times 10% equals 1%. So, rather than try to figure out what percentage of horses off more than 90 days win, which is what you did, let’s find what percentage of all entries the winners off more than 90 days represent. This is especially important since we have to deal with all the entries when handicapping races. In your larger sample there were 94393 starters and potential winners. From that group 1,066 horses off more than 90 days won. Doing the math, 1066 winners that were off more than 90 days, divided by 94393 total entries and potential winners, equals .0113 or just a shade over 1% of horses off more than 90 days won when compared to all entries for that time period. The same is true for your short sample as well.
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11-13-2017, 11:36 PM | #72 |
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Beware of stats because their basically an average. The worse dominate because there are more of them. Stats also tend to be general assertions and when broken down or further classified don't hold up.
There are more incompetent trainers than proficient ones. The higher the proficiency the less qualified there are. How many can become a successful pitcher in major league baseball or be a dominate Gr 1 winner. An average depth of a river may be 4 foot but if you can't swim are you going to trust that stat when the middle of the river can be 10 foot deep. When it comes to horses, particularity layoff horses, stats are not equal to all trainers or horses. Use the information available to gather more information about that situation. Specific stats are much more important than general assumptions. Within that assumed 1% are many nuggets of gold that defies general overall stats. Lt1 and I have been handling layoff horses for years without a problem. Their only a problem if you perceive them to be a problem. This applies to any handicapping dilemma. Otherwise you might as well just bet every favorite and be done with it. If stats were that good favorites would not lose 2/3rd of all races. Besides trainer stats don't trump the horse, the horse itself is the dominate factor. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 11-13-2017 at 11:41 PM. |
11-14-2017, 12:59 AM | #73 |
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Very Good Thread
I just caught this thread:
Very valuable insights from many contributors. Several school of thought on pace line selections with both getting the winner from different chosen pace lines and two different programs. Great stat from Kpmats10 and Mitch- you made a great analogy!! Thanks to all who chimed in this thread..... |
11-14-2017, 09:43 AM | #74 |
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Location: The Villages, Fl.
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While much of this thread discussed the proper picking of pace lines one caveat we can't overlook is to not use a line where the horse was beaten by more than 7.5 beaten lengths.
At some point horses that are all out aren't punished when they have given their all and a point where reliability of the line as a true representative line becomes questionable. For many years the "Doc" used 9 lengths and later settled on 7.5 which was his last know recommendation. That can be found on page # 38 of Follow Up # 84. Have you been using that limit? Mitch44 |
11-14-2017, 10:13 AM | #75 | |
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Quote:
I do not hesitate to use a pace line where the horse faded against a fast 3rd fraction. I have even entered pace lines where the horse was with the early pace runners and proceeded to lose by 11 lengths to the eventual winner. The pace line was put on top on Energy program due to the faster than normal 3rd fraction. |
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11-14-2017, 10:34 AM | #76 |
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Early speed to the stretch has always been an indicator of a horse coming to form. POR is also a proven concept.
I may have used that line also lone speed depending what was there to choose from however I pretty much stick to the Doc's guidelines. There are exceptions to everything . I pretty much stick to things that have proven their worth consistently over a broad range rather than exceptions. Good skill, Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 11-14-2017 at 10:38 AM. |
11-14-2017, 10:41 AM | #77 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
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actually handicapped
Hello
FTL wrote Quote:
Large stats from every track are saying 10 % That is nice , I would rather focus on the races I actually handicapped . In an earlier thread I listed and attached a spread sheet of my recent races Today I have updated my stats Since Saturday 11/11/17 I have handicapped 78 races The tracks were AQU., CD, DMR, GG, LRL, MNR, MVR, PEN, PARX, WO In those 78 races there were 625 total horses . of those 625 horses 5 were First Time Starters* So lets say 620 horses Of those 620 horses only 32 ran after a 90 day or longer layoff. Of those 32 horses only 4 won They paid $7.50, $3.80, $9.60, and $100.40 1 horse only placed and paid $4.60 2 horse only showed and paid $10.20 and $4.40 The $100.40 winner came in yesterdays (11/13/17) race 3 from LRL. Here are her pace lines I did not consider this horse but RDSS auto selected line 1 Here are some other rankings produced by RDSS2.1 These rankings all have high win and ITM percentages based on my exported lines into RDSS's Modeling feature. In a field of 8 APV 7th CR 7Th CSR 5th CR+ 7th VDC 6th BLBL 6th BLBL score 9.5 RX 1 7th RX 2 7th RX 3 7th RX3 score 0 (15.5) is average ML 20/1 Preceptor 6th ERP 2nd LPR 7th CPR 7th So it appears this is the type of horse Mitch refers to - Maybe the trainer shows good stats with long layoff horses but Nobody was betting on here Her ML was 20/1 and she went off at 49/1 This study and my earlier study of recent races shows horses off over 90 days do win but at a very small percentage Would we as Sartin and Match up bettors bet a horse like horse 7? I would not, Do people who add (throw in ) this type into horizontal and vertical bets at a grand total of .50 cents or $1.00 more hit ? Well they do I suppose Thanks and Good Skill Bill |
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11-14-2017, 10:53 AM | #78 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
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Low LPR
Hi Mitch
For years I never used a paceline were a horse ran with over 7.5 beaten lengths This was from Doc's very few rules. When I started using TPR I may have selected a line with over 7.5 beaten lengths, but once I got to the readouts, usually these type horses have too low or high EPR's and low LPS. or they just plotted around the track so their TPR will be too low . Oh belated Happy Veterans May Mitch Thank You so much for your service Sir. Bill |
11-14-2017, 12:19 PM | #79 |
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Thanks Bill for your kind words.
I believe most of the time if picking a line over 7,5 B L the Preceptor would rate it low and like you said it'll greatly effect its Tot. Energy or TPR which would come up low. I can see where one may be forced to if that's all that's there but a valid procedure using 7.5. As a general rule I find the more successful lay off horses are of better class than the norm. Their generally not the type that will come up in the top 5 but they do come up. When they do I downgrade them at least one position of their capability because it really takes racing to get the overwhelming majority into top form. Few get into my top two but I do work them into my gimmicks as their not necessarily complete throw outs. Handicapping always confronts us with the same problems such as form, layoffs, suspicious dropdowns, NTL, stretch outs and horses shorting up. They all require a consistent approach as to how we deal with them to beat the game. Good to see you capping and posting Bill. Mitch44 |
11-14-2017, 12:27 PM | #80 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Class
Long layoff horses always pay big prices, Really ?
Greater than 90 days layoff horses sin my handicapped races |
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