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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 11-13-2017, 08:06 PM   #71
For The Lead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kpmats10 View Post
Re: Layoff horses

Since Oct 1st, there have been 36,843 starters in the US.

There have been 3,783 starters who have not raced for 91+ days. 353 have won for a winning percentage of 9.3%

For the third quarter this year (July 1 - Sep 30), there were 94,393 starters in the US.

10,075 horses raced coming off a layoff of 91+ days, 1,066 won, for a win percentage of 10.58%. The only lower winning percentage was 10.06% for horses coming off an 81-86 day layoff.
Your stats look about right to me.

In any given year, roughly 10% of all starters have not had a race in the last 90 days.
Then,roughly 10% from that group win.
I think anyone reading this will understand that 10% from a group of 10% leaves a very small group. 10% times 10% equals 1%.

So, rather than try to figure out what percentage of horses off more than 90 days win, which is what you did, let’s find what percentage of all entries the winners off more than 90 days represent. This is especially important since we have to deal with all the entries when handicapping races.

In your larger sample there were 94393 starters and potential winners. From that group 1,066 horses off more than 90 days won.
Doing the math, 1066 winners that were off more than 90 days, divided by 94393 total entries and potential winners, equals .0113 or just a shade over 1% of horses off more than 90 days won when compared to all entries for that time period.

The same is true for your short sample as well.
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Old 11-13-2017, 11:36 PM   #72
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Beware of stats because their basically an average. The worse dominate because there are more of them. Stats also tend to be general assertions and when broken down or further classified don't hold up.

There are more incompetent trainers than proficient ones. The higher the proficiency the less qualified there are. How many can become a successful pitcher in major league baseball or be a dominate Gr 1 winner. An average depth of a river may be 4 foot but if you can't swim are you going to trust that stat when the middle of the river can be 10 foot deep.

When it comes to horses, particularity layoff horses, stats are not equal to all trainers or horses. Use the information available to gather more information about that situation. Specific stats are much more important than general assumptions.

Within that assumed 1% are many nuggets of gold that defies general overall stats.
Lt1 and I have been handling layoff horses for years without a problem. Their only a problem if you perceive them to be a problem. This applies to any handicapping dilemma. Otherwise you might as well just bet every favorite and be done with it.

If stats were that good favorites would not lose 2/3rd of all races. Besides trainer stats don't trump the horse, the horse itself is the dominate factor.


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Last edited by Mitch44; 11-13-2017 at 11:41 PM.
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Old 11-14-2017, 12:59 AM   #73
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Very Good Thread

I just caught this thread:

Very valuable insights from many contributors. Several school of thought on pace line selections with both getting the winner from different chosen pace lines and two different programs.

Great stat from Kpmats10 and Mitch- you made a great analogy!!

Thanks to all who chimed in this thread.....
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Old 11-14-2017, 09:43 AM   #74
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While much of this thread discussed the proper picking of pace lines one caveat we can't overlook is to not use a line where the horse was beaten by more than 7.5 beaten lengths.



At some point horses that are all out aren't punished when they have given their all and a point where reliability of the line as a true representative line becomes questionable.

For many years the "Doc" used 9 lengths and later settled on 7.5 which was his last know recommendation. That can be found on page # 38 of Follow Up # 84.
Have you been using that limit?


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Old 11-14-2017, 10:13 AM   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
While much of this thread discussed the proper picking of pace lines one caveat we can't overlook is to not use a line where the horse was beaten by more than 7.5 beaten lengths.



At some point horses that are all out aren't punished when they have given their all and a point where reliability of the line as a true representative line becomes questionable.

For many years the "Doc" used 9 lengths and later settled on 7.5 which was his last know recommendation. That can be found on page # 38 of Follow Up # 84.
Have you been using that limit?


Mitch44

I do not hesitate to use a pace line where the horse faded against a fast 3rd fraction. I have even entered pace lines where the horse was with the early pace runners and proceeded to lose by 11 lengths to the eventual winner. The pace line was put on top on Energy program due to the faster than normal 3rd fraction.
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Old 11-14-2017, 10:34 AM   #76
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Early speed to the stretch has always been an indicator of a horse coming to form. POR is also a proven concept.

I may have used that line also lone speed depending what was there to choose from however I pretty much stick to the Doc's guidelines. There are exceptions to everything .

I pretty much stick to things that have proven their worth consistently over a broad range rather than exceptions.


Good skill,
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 11-14-2017 at 10:38 AM.
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Old 11-14-2017, 10:41 AM   #77
Bill V.
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actually handicapped

Hello

FTL wrote

Quote:
So, rather than try to figure out what percentage of horses off more than 90 days win, which is what you did, let’s find what percentage of all entries the winners off more than 90 days represent. This is especially important since we have to deal with all the entries when handicapping races.
I agree 100% FTL

Large stats from every track are saying 10 % That is nice , I would rather focus on the races I actually handicapped .

In an earlier thread I listed and attached a spread sheet of my recent races

Today I have updated my stats
Since Saturday 11/11/17 I have handicapped 78 races
The tracks were AQU., CD, DMR, GG, LRL, MNR, MVR, PEN, PARX, WO


In those 78 races there were 625 total horses .
of those 625 horses 5 were First Time Starters*

So lets say 620 horses
Of those 620 horses only 32 ran after a 90 day or longer layoff.
Of those 32 horses only 4 won
They paid $7.50, $3.80, $9.60, and $100.40
1 horse only placed and paid $4.60
2 horse only showed and paid $10.20 and $4.40

The $100.40 winner came in yesterdays (11/13/17) race 3 from LRL.

Here are her pace lines I did not consider this horse but RDSS auto selected line 1

Here are some other rankings produced by RDSS2.1
These rankings all have high win and ITM percentages based on my exported lines into RDSS's Modeling feature.

In a field of 8
APV 7th
CR 7Th
CSR 5th
CR+ 7th
VDC 6th
BLBL 6th
BLBL score 9.5
RX 1 7th
RX 2 7th
RX 3 7th
RX3 score 0 (15.5) is average
ML 20/1
Preceptor 6th
ERP 2nd
LPR 7th
CPR 7th

So it appears this is the type of horse Mitch refers to - Maybe the trainer
shows good stats with long layoff horses but Nobody was betting on here
Her ML was 20/1 and she went off at 49/1

This study and my earlier study of recent races shows horses off
over 90 days do win but at a very small percentage

Would we as Sartin and Match up bettors bet a horse like horse 7?
I would not,
Do people who add (throw in ) this type into horizontal and vertical bets
at a grand total of .50 cents or $1.00 more hit ?
Well they do I suppose

Thanks and Good Skill
Bill

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Old 11-14-2017, 10:53 AM   #78
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Low LPR

Hi Mitch

For years I never used a paceline were a horse ran with over 7.5 beaten lengths
This was from Doc's very few rules.

When I started using TPR I may have selected a line with over
7.5 beaten lengths, but once I got to the readouts, usually these type horses have too low or high EPR's
and low LPS. or they just plotted around the track so their TPR
will be too low .

Oh belated Happy Veterans May Mitch
Thank You so much for your service Sir.

Bill
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Old 11-14-2017, 12:19 PM   #79
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Thanks Bill for your kind words.


I believe most of the time if picking a line over 7,5 B L the Preceptor would rate it low and like you said it'll greatly effect its Tot. Energy or TPR which would come up low. I can see where one may be forced to if that's all that's there but a valid procedure using 7.5.


As a general rule I find the more successful lay off horses are of better class than the norm. Their generally not the type that will come up in the top 5 but they do come up. When they do I downgrade them at least one position of their capability because it really takes racing to get the overwhelming majority into top form. Few get into my top two but I do work them into my gimmicks as their not necessarily complete throw outs.



Handicapping always confronts us with the same problems such as form, layoffs, suspicious dropdowns, NTL, stretch outs and horses shorting up. They all require a consistent approach as to how we deal with them to beat the game.


Good to see you capping and posting Bill.


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Old 11-14-2017, 12:27 PM   #80
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Class

Long layoff horses always pay big prices, Really ?
Greater than 90 days layoff horses sin my handicapped races


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