Interesting Wagering Newsletter From Allways - Pace and Cap

lsosa54 · 02-07-2012, 10:34 PM

A part of the game most of us don't spend enough time on

Dorianmode · 02-08-2012, 08:59 AM

This topic is referenced in the "Never bet on or against a favorite" thread. We have the tools to make these computations easily.

lsosa54 · 02-08-2012, 03:37 PM

DM: The tougher question is: do we have the discipline to wait for situations where your top 2 betting choices are 3-1 and 4-1 or even both 4-1 and are we confident enough we can we hit 50% of those?

Dorianmode · 02-08-2012, 04:08 PM

I don't, (like to "wait"), especially if doing the analysis is time consuming, but since my win % is higher than 50%, and I know what MY general break even #'s are, (minimum pay offs) and, since I play lots of races, I don't really "wait" that much.

lsosa54 · 02-08-2012, 04:53 PM

I definitely prefer your approach but only if it can be profitable long term - over a series of 20 race cycles. It definitely is no fun to do all the work and have to sit on one's hands but sometimes it's a must.

02-08-2012, 08:59 AM	#2
Dorianmode always learning Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe Posts: 277	2/7 This topic is referenced in the "Never bet on or against a favorite" thread. We have the tools to make these computations easily.

02-08-2012, 04:08 PM	#4
Dorianmode always learning Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe Posts: 277	2/8 I don't, (like to "wait"), especially if doing the analysis is time consuming, but since my win % is higher than 50%, and I know what MY general break even #'s are, (minimum pay offs) and, since I play lots of races, I don't really "wait" that much.

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02-08-2012, 03:37 PM	#3
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	DM: The tougher question is: do we have the discipline to wait for situations where your top 2 betting choices are 3-1 and 4-1 or even both 4-1 and are we confident enough we can we hit 50% of those?

02-08-2012, 04:53 PM	#5
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	I definitely prefer your approach but only if it can be profitable long term - over a series of 20 race cycles. It definitely is no fun to do all the work and have to sit on one's hands but sometimes it's a must.