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06-06-2018, 02:17 PM | #1 | ||||||||||||
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Woodbine picks for 6 Jun.18
WO 6 Jun. 18 Before scratches and changes. 2nd 4-7-8-1 # 4 towers over this field, # 7 last prep,returns to better dis. & surface of best SR, # 8 unknown only 1 turf, could be anything, #1 returns to turf route and only two tries, since those has improved with blinkers back on, last two probably preps waiting for turf course to open for meet after winter closing. # 4 will probably be bet down to favorite, race could be a big price winner. 3rd Maiden with several unknown factors. Only a small fun bet here. I see this track has .20 D D & P 3 so at those prices why not a fun bet 6-1-7 # 6 FTS OK, if these aren’t liked throw a dart at anything as it would be as good as my WAG (wild ass guess) looking for something that will pay at least $14.00 4th 8-3-1-2 Maiden Clm. Not a race to bet big on as it has two unknown factors in it, # 5 Unknown factor gets B on today and trainer is 27% first time B on, # 7 Unknown factor has a trainer change who has good stats also is owner so probably purchased it privately. This is a pretty straight forward race but these two unknown factors destroy it in a very cheap race. Tread lightly in this one. There is risk reward here for the 5 & 7 as their both 20-1. 5th 4-3-6-5 the conditions of this race favor the 4-3-5 as the others are all older with 30 starts or so and never won 3 races lifetime. # 4 declining SR in last two but that was before layoff and first after layoff so needed last. # 3 has changed running style in last 4 and improved, #6 has won last two and steps up today going from restricted races to open company and an old form cycle. Won last two from dropping in class and actual class level is still unknown at this point, can he win 3 in a row? Not likening the 7-2 odds for the risk and he figures to be bet down. The 6 kind of ruins a decent race with too many contenders. Maybe a scratch will help. Trending lightly in this one also. 6th 6-4-8-9 # 6last is a toss, looks like they tried to rate for distance and it spit the bit,also looks like this horse is taking a suspicious drop however if you consider the claiming price(8,000) & the purse its more than 16,000 if he was claimed from a higher race, plus this trainer is 38% down two classes and apositive ROI. OK, he’ll be bet down and not a win bet but can’t be ignored foran EX. or DD he's OK. # 4 improved from claim and won 3 of last 4 fresh and new cycle, # 8 new cycle, sharp & consistent, # 9 6 F better distance, sharp & new cycle, competitive this level. 7th MC 32,000 3-4-5-10 this race has four FTS and two first time Lasix, Risky, risky, risky PASS # 7 best horse but coming off a 6 mo. Layoff and trainer is only 7% off layoffs, also taking a huge drop for a 3 yr. old ??, workouts seem ok but low odds of 3-1 don’t justify the risk on this one. With this many UNKNOWN factors the only way to approach this is to seek a price. I wouldn’t take less than 9-1 if trying to hook up a DD. Possible prices for small DD hook up with 3-4-5-10. This is one challenging card. Trainers at this track all seem to run their horses on both Turf and SYN and also run them in both sprints and routes. This makes for some problems, especially for picking pace lines and contenders. Normally I consider Syn and turf interchangeable lines and the same but I did find several horses that excelled or preferred one over the other and chose some lines based on that. Same with looking at distance for lines to stay within ½ F preferably and no more than 1 F. Horses at this track perform well over both sprints and routes. Something you don’t find on dirt. I believe it’s because there is no kickback so they perform well on both. Even with that most of these horses perform better at either sprints or routes and determining that can make a big difference for contenders and selections. This is my 3rd time playing WO, played it last Sunday and made a profit. Trying to help a friend is the reason for playing it.Not sure how much help I can be as this track requires a lot more local knowledge than other tracks. Prescott Idle is a piece of cake compared to thistrack. The races I won on Sunday were races with less variables. To win here I would say it’s no problem but be very selective in your races played and especially if making your normal larger bets. Today is just an ugly card where the races don’t set up to make some serious money. So being ahead $130 from Sunday
Post your opinions on this track and selections and lets have some fun. Mitch Last edited by Mitch44; 06-06-2018 at 02:29 PM. |
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06-06-2018, 05:11 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Updates
Scratches: 1st scr. # 6 2nd scr.# 9 6th scr. # 9 7th scr. # 2,4,& 6 Mitch 44 |
06-06-2018, 09:57 PM | #3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Results:
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06-06-2018, 10:09 PM | #4 | |||
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Results
Lost two EX, one by a head bob for place and nosed in another for place, made the difference of winning & losing.Not bad overall for lots of action and an ugly card that presented few real opportunities.
Mitch44 Ended up: Bet Return Lost
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06-06-2018, 10:15 PM | #5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Sorry thought these were posted.
Mitch |
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06-06-2018, 11:58 PM | #6 |
Happy Punting
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 480
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Thanks for the Woodbine Info
Mitch44,
Thanks for posting! Happy Punting! Jon |
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