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Old 09-03-2018, 07:32 PM   #1
babuboy
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Race 1 -- Happy Valley 5th September 2018

Attached is the Pace Array for Race 1 -- Happy Valley 5th September 2018.

Inviting experienced forum members to help with the analysis. I have included the Track Profile and the Decision Model also.
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File Type: pdf Race 1 -- 20180905Pace.pdf (50.3 KB, 659 views)
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Old 09-04-2018, 06:48 PM   #2
Dorianmode
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Is this Happy Valley in Hong Kong ?
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Old 09-04-2018, 07:06 PM   #3
babuboy
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Yes.
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Old 09-05-2018, 11:25 AM   #4
rmath
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PPs

Is there a site where we can access the PPs?
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Old 09-05-2018, 12:39 PM   #5
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Rich I believe Twin Spires may have them. I the track listed in the Handicapping section.
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Old 09-05-2018, 01:54 PM   #6
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Re: Decision Model - Is the model based on races where you included the entire field? Or is it based on what you felt were the "true" contenders only? I ask because you can muddy the waters by including the non-contenders as part of your mix, which will throw your model numbers askew. By narrowing down to anywhere from 3-5 "true" contenders (may vary race by race), you remove a lot of the "noise" from your readouts.
Another question - Have you considered "tiering" your contenders based on the line score of the factors you choose to rate (I see you're using Phase III methodology, aka the compounded ratings which inspired Tom Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping), and doing a "wagercapping" type strategy of letting the odds determining your wagers in a given race? There is a ton of literature about wagercapping (Ted posted several excerpts from the old Follow-Up journals featuring a Sartin client known as "The Capper") that may enlighten you.

Best of luck in your wagering endeavors.
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Old 09-05-2018, 04:26 PM   #7
babuboy
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Hi Jeebs,

I appreciate your answer and your guidance truly.

You are correct -- I am using Tom Brohamer's book (Modern Pace Handicapping) as a basis for my work on pace.

The 2018-19 Hong Kong season started this past weekend and I just started actively handicapping this season (using a combination of Speed Ratings and Trackwork). As far as pace goes, I am accurately calculating the pace array -- but this array has almost no value pending an accurate Decision Model.

I have started with just a placeholder Decision Model. Right now, it is far from accurate. I created the Decision Model from the 2017-18 season which concluded in July, 2018. I had not handicapped that season, so I created the Decision Model by using averages for all races for that course and distance. This also suffered from using all the runners in the race (average 13) and not just the true contenders. As you point out, this has muddied the waters and thrown my numbers on the higher side. Also, since I did not handicap the real contenders, I had my program simply pick the last race as the paceline.

I will look at the material you suggested related to "tiering" contenders based on the line score of the factors I choose.

I similarly based my Track Profile on the 2017-18 season. I believe that the Position and Lengths for the First Call and Second Call should be usable. The Percent Early Average and Upper and Lower Range also suffer from the default selection of the last race for the paceline.

Again, I truly appreciate your insights and any other advice that the more eperienced forum members could provide me.

--Sohil Patel
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Old 09-05-2018, 04:51 PM   #8
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My two cents in BOLD

Quote:
Originally Posted by babuboy View Post
Hi Jeebs,

I appreciate your answer and your guidance truly.

You are correct -- I am using Tom Brohamer's book (Modern Pace Handicapping) as a basis for my work on pace.

The 2018-19 Hong Kong season started this past weekend and I just started actively handicapping this season (using a combination of Speed Ratings and Trackwork). As far as pace goes, I am accurately calculating the pace array -- but this array has almost no value pending an accurate Decision Model.

I have started with just a placeholder Decision Model. Right now, it is far from accurate. I created the Decision Model from the 2017-18 season which concluded in July, 2018. I had not handicapped that season, so I created the Decision Model by using averages for all races for that course and distance. This also suffered from using all the runners in the race (average 13) and not just the true contenders. As you point out, this has muddied the waters and thrown my numbers on the higher side. Also, since I did not handicap the real contenders, I had my program simply pick the last race as the paceline.

I wouldn't even worry about a placeholder decision model. Last year was last year. Plus, if you weren't narrowing races down to the likeliest contenders, the previous model will have too much noise to even be useful. While a decision model will help you identify key corollaries for finding possible wagers in your bottom ranks (tiers), I would not marry yourself so much to it for your top tier horses and would use the tote odds to best determine your course of action with your top 3 line scores.

I will look at the material you suggested related to "tiering" contenders based on the line score of the factors I choose.

Bottom Line-Betting Line was not part of Phase III. However, the premise is that ranks 1-2-3 in each factor are weighted closer than ranks 4 and 5, therefore, the 3 best ranked horses (in theory) are equal, while ranks 4 and 5 should be considered as "Price Only" for Win and perhaps Place and Show, so long as you have supporting corollaries to warrant a bet.

I similarly based my Track Profile on the 2017-18 season. I believe that the Position and Lengths for the First Call and Second Call should be usable. The Percent Early Average and Upper and Lower Range also suffer from the default selection of the last race for the paceline.

Again, I would not worry about profiling so much. Doc argues in many later Follow-Up journals that creating a result chart profile (which is what Brohamer teaches in the book) is based on different match-ups and is not so much a profitable venture anymore. Every race is dependent on today's match-up, so if a particular horse went wire-to-wire in a rated race, and your profile shows that the track favors horses going wire-to-wire, it could be that the race where said horse went wire-to-wire had a favorable match-up that day, and may not get the same setup today. It doesn't mean that it can't win, but nothing is absolute in this game.

Again, I truly appreciate your insights and any other advice that the more eperienced forum members could provide me.

--Sohil Patel
You seem to be on the right track. There are others here with more experience who you can also listen to, especially seasoned vets like Bill V, Lt1, etc. The advice might be different, but the intent is there - helping people find a way to best make money, which equates to winning.
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Old 09-05-2018, 05:52 PM   #9
Ted Craven
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Sohil,

I worked Hong Kong Happy Valley this morning, all 8 races. For Race 1 I came up with 1-9-4-2 at 0 MTP when the red light started flashing (about 1 minute to go). Again, my analysis is based on tote price movement and pool relationships.

Part of my problem is waiting too late to get all bets down. I got a Quinella down but got shut out placing my dutched Win bet on 9-1-4

The result was 9-2-1-8 (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/info/m.../20180905/HV/1), good enough for a Quinella (and Tri) - but only if you actually place the bets

As I mentioned elsewhere, right now I am working HK 2 days a week because I think I have a reasonable enough tote-only method and don't have the time right now to work with a whole other set of differently formatted PP data than what we use in North America. But I heartily encourage you and anyone else to try your hand at it with Sartin Methods!

FWIW, HK$ 88,580,604 was bet on this one race, or US$ 11,515,478. My modest bets do not affect the odds (nor do US$100,000 bets ...)

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