Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Selections
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Selections Post Your Picks - 1 race or a card

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-23-2019, 12:56 PM   #1
rdiam
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
AQU r9 Gr 3 Red Smith 11/23/19

AQU r9: the Gr 3 Red Smith on 11/23/19, post time 3:47 pm ET:

A marathon on the turf, but the 8/5 fav looks vulnerable:

In reverse order:

10 -- Postulation: 4th after layoff, jockey switch back to Vargas, but the 9/28 race at Laurel seemed to take a lot out of him and appears to be going out of form => TOSS

9 -- Have It All: first after 64 day layoff, jockey switch to Franco, probably too slow to win this but will be closing => USE UNDERNEATH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS

3 -- Nakamura: 4th after layoff, jockey switch to Jose Ortiz, but 9/29 race at Laurel may have taken its toll on form => USE UNDERNEATH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS

2 -- Petit Fils: been racing in Europe, first race after 76 day layoff, jockey switch to Rosario, first time Lasix, 8/1 ml => TOSS

8 -- Red Knight: appears too slow to be competitive with these => TOSS

1 -- Tiz A Slam: dropping from G1, first after 70 day layoff, needs the lead but probably won't get it => TOSS

11 -- Glorious Empire: dropping from G2, 3rd race after layoff, needs the lead and may get it, but early pace effort may take a toll => USE UNDERNEARTH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS

5 -- Red Right Hand: Coming from allowance race, has never run in graded stakes, first race after 48 day layoff, jockey switch to Velasquez, will be competitive early and pressing => WIN CONTENDER at 8-1 or better, USE UNDERNEATCH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS

7 -- Sadler's Joy: dropping from G1, jockey switch to Castellano, first race after 49 day layoff, will likely be the chalk => WIN CONTENDER at 6-1 or better (unlikely), USE UNDERNEATH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS

4 -- Marzo: 3rd race after claim, jockey switch to Irad Ortiz, competitive at G3 level based on last race => WIN CONTENDER at 4-1 or better, USE UNDERNEATH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS

6 -- Dot Matrix: jockey switch to Lezcano, can win this if runs back to 9/22 race and Lezcano controls the pace => WIN CONTENDER at 5/2 or better, USE UNDERNEATH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS

Good luck.

Richard
rdiam is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2019, 01:30 PM   #2
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
Aqu

Race 6. 9-7-1-4
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2019, 01:58 PM   #3
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Race 9

11 7 4

Name:  11 7 4.PNG
Views: 192
Size:  53.3 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2019, 02:35 PM   #4
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
Aqu

Race 7. 7-3-2 LS 4
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2019, 02:39 PM   #5
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
OMAR'S Book?

Quote:
Originally Posted by raceman5 View Post
Race 6. 9-7-1-4

Beautiful Bob

Win Ex and Tri and possible the Super too with the LS 4


Name:  Race 6.PNG
Views: 405
Size:  23.0 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2019, 02:49 PM   #6
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Beautiful Bob

Win Ex and Tri and possible the Super too with the LS 4


Attachment 48617
Thanks, Bill. Hit the early double for 210.00 my 5 horse in the 2nd paid 53.50 I posted it under my selections.
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2019, 03:03 PM   #7
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
Aqu

Race 8 10-6-7
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2019, 03:32 PM   #8
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
9th Aqu.
Many unk. factors in this race.
#7 may not be ready after layoff
#4 Improved from B on, switch to Turf and got dis. in last with win but in slow time, a real unknown. At shorter dis.'s very little deceleration so added dis. makes sense but also steps up in class for this one.
#2 foreign horse with limited data, dis & class OK , gets Lasix and a very decent jock, trainer good after layoff and with new horses.


Not a prime betting race, I'll go 2-7-4- best WAQ. small wager


Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2019, 03:37 PM   #9
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
Aqu

Race 9. 7-3-1
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2019, 04:07 PM   #10
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
Aqu

Race 10 10-9-7 LS 1
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Other than Early - Voodoo pattern #1 RichieP Hat Check - How Can We Help You? 14 08-29-2008 10:08 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:40 PM.