4 horseman

[Bill V.]

Follow the leader

Speaking to Ted about the 0.0 / VDC horse test methods I have
been working on. I mention to Ted how often the winnier is in the 4 remaining horses after my hiding method. - Almost always-
Ted throws out "BET ALL 4"
anybody else ever try a 4 horse win betting procedure ?

Race 10 at Sunland park ( 5.5 furlongs)
The second race I try betting all 4 to win
gets a $30 horse
my 4 horses are the 3 1 6 8
look at that 3- 6 exacta !

GS
Bill




"

[Bill V.]

If this keeps up I will fly you out to Pace and Cap Day #3 Del Mar 2010

[Bill V.]

Here is race 4 about 5 mins to post

Screen 1 is contenders before hide
Screen two is to the top 5 hides
Screen 3 is top 5
screen 4 in top 4 and TS bet record Hope it works again

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Here is race 4 about 5 mins to post

Screen 1 is contenders before hide
Screen two is to the top 5 hides
Screen 3 is top 5
screen 4 in top 4 and TS bet record Hope it works again

And we win .60 cents hey we still have a long way to go till
Del Mar

1st 10 MIDNIGHT BREAK $8.60 $5.00 $3.60
2nd 3 FOOLS SPEED $5.80 $4.20
3rd 5 POWER T $3.40
4th 7 PRINCIPLE PASSAGE

Other Payouts

$2 EX (10/3) paid $50.40
$2 TRI (10/3/5) paid $187.40
$2 SPR (10/3/5/7) paid $997.00
$2 P03 (3/6/10) match 3 paid $2,670.00

RACE #4 Purse: $14000

5 1/2F Main

[Bill V.]

Its been a hard days night

[RichieP]

nice nights pay Bill!

[RichieP]

Hi Bill
Is there any way you can keep track of the odds on the 4 horses at say 1 or 2 minutes to post going forward if you are playing "live".

If you are not then maybe recording the ml odds.

I'm asking for 2 specific reasons:

1) Doc wrote a couple of times about being very uncomfortable betting 3 horses at times feeling it would become a crutch for players. Now this was 10-15 years ago.

Bill the facts in today's racing compared to back then are the favs are definitely winning more (currently just shy of 37% everywhere(overall) compared to 33-34 % back then.) Couple this with the ridiculously low payers that are coming with them being pounded down mercilessly and your road becomes that much more difficult to overcome long term.

Also I personally have never seen so many races where there are now 2 "hides" signaling at least to me that the 2nd choices are also being way overbet. If statistically the top 2 favs win more than half the races the odds are tilting against you in a big way.

2) Regarding tracking odds (especially the ml which still gives you the freedom to do your thing away from racing and not being tied to a screen) I'd be curious how a "JMS62" method of seeing how your 2 BIGGEST ml odds horses (betting these 2 horses ONLY to win)in YOUR final 4 contenders perform over say 100 races.

Personally I think this merits much closer examination



Merry Christmas from the frozen tundra called New Rochelle

Here is a tune made famous by Sinatra way back when. But this singer/performance is a bit easier on the eyes!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QljDNDxQLXc

[JimG]

Bill,

My experience has been when there are several overlays that are in my contenders, one horse is being bet very hard...generally less than even money.

In the long haul, I feel it is best to steer clear of those races because the favorite tends to win around 50% of the time when bet down to say 4/5 or less.

One thing you may want to consider is limiting such a play (3 or 4 horses to win) to only certain tracks where historical data tells you the favorite is winning at 28% or less for a meet. I would say break it down further (surface, class) but without significant data it is too suceptible to abberation.

Jim

[SilentRun]

Bill,

For win betting only you really need hundreds of races to guage your ROI.
If you have your past races you can go back and track how 4 horse win
betting would have done without risking any $.

I am looking at something similiar with either 3 or 4 horse $1.00 exacta play
using my picks in conjunction with the top 4 horses from Tote X-ray.
I can either use an exacta box or use Dick Mitchell's exacta fair pay method.
I still have a lot of data to evaluate.

If you would have used a 1.00 exacta box on your 4 races you would have
lost 3/4 but R10 at SUN would have paid $204.60 less 48.00 for a net of
156.60.

Ernie

[Bill V.]

Good morning and Merry Christmas

Thank you Rich and Jim

Rich I can do the odds at 2 minutes to post
cause that is when I put the bests in most of the time

I see what your saying about two hides races
they seem to happen more often . and for me
In races with two hides one of them wins most of the time.

The reason for this 4H version of the test was ....
Early testing showed me that the 0.0/VDC hiding method
was
1. Getting the winner very often
2. I was seeing very good win and place prices
after hides horses
3. I wanted to see which two of the 4 horses
won and why
4. I wanted to see what patterns on some readouts
could eliminate 2 of the 4 horses
Since I was going to do so many races, and since I hate to
paper bet. I thought just bet all 4 You have proven to your self that
the 0.0/VDC method gets many long shots all you need to do is catch
a few of the and many 7/2 or over horses and even if the favorite wins
your almost positive to have it in your mix so it only becomes a
3 horse bet at worst

After only 6 races here is what I have recorded
I can add other factors I might notice after more testing