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RDSS 2.2 (and previous versions) Racing Decision Support System - The NEW Version 2.2

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Old 01-24-2017, 03:07 PM   #1
Lt1
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A FWIW Survey

As I have stated in several post I generally restrict my play to races for 3 & up on the dirt. With this in mind I did another 100 race survey confined to these parameters. The tracks were Parx,Tampa Bay. MVR, and Aqu. The avg field size was 8.4 and the avg win price was $8.90. As you will see both BL/BL and the 3 RX factors showed improvement over the first 2 surveys with BL/BL showing the biggest increase. Here are the numbers.

BL/BL
RACES #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6+
100 29 23 18 13 10 7

RX3 PROFIT LIN2
RACES #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6+
100 30 21 22 9 9 9

RX2 CLASS
RACES #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6+
100 27 21 16 15 12 9

RX1 ML
RACES #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6+
100 29 20 20 16 5 10

BL/BL had 70 winners top 3 and 83 top 4 in this survey compared to 57/12 and 59/15 in the prior 2. RX 3 Profit Line had 73 top 3 and 82 top 4 compared to 63/75 & 70/77 in prior 2. RX2 Class had 64 top 3 & 79 top 4 compared to 60/73 & 64/77 in prior 2. RX3 ML had 69 top 3 & 85 top4 compared to 64/78 & 68/79 prior 2. The numbers coincide with those that both Mitch 44 and I had arrived at a few years ago which caused us to alter the types of races we played. I fully understand that there are those here that are more proficient at both Turf and mdn races then I and hope some of them will share their findings with us.
Tim G
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Old 01-24-2017, 10:51 PM   #2
Ted Craven
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Thanks Tim. I guess one thing I am interested in, and which Bill Lyster has given me some feedback on from his data gathering, is -- whether the Rx factors (and particularly Rx3) result in any better average Mutuel or ROI for this race collection, by rank or rank group, compared to BLBL.

For example, in this set particular set of 100 races:

1. what was the average Mutuel of Rank #1 BLBL, compared to the average Mutuel of Rank #1 Rx3
2. what was the average Mutuel of Rank #2 BLBL, compared to Rank #2 Rx3
3. What was the average Mutuel of those 2 ranks combined, for BLBL compared to those ranks combined for Rx3

And similarly, what was the ROI for the above categories.

This goes towards my assumption, which needs further proving, that while Rx3 (and maybe Rx1 and Rx2) produces close to the same hit rate by rank and by rank groups as BLBL (perhaps depending on race-type filters), it does so at a BETTER ROI and average mutuel than does BLBL. If that is so, then Rx is an improvement on BLBL.

That would be interesting info!

Thanks in advance.

Ted
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Old 01-25-2017, 08:15 AM   #3
Bill V.
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good success

Hi Tim

I use RX 3 as a final decision tool, I tracked RX3 for the Del Mar
summer meet . My top 5 won just about the same % as Bill Lyster
but I'm sure we used different pace lines, I think Bill just used the auto selected BL3 comparable, I used phase 1

I am doing extremely well using the RX3 as final eliminator .
I hace to work every type of race because I handicap multiple race type bet
Doubles Pick 3 and Pick 4 only .

Once I have my phase 1 readouts from my lines
I keep any horse that is top 3 EPR, LPR and top 5 TPR,
Most times I left with 5 horses,
If I have more than 5 horses I then eliminate to 5 using the RX3 readout

I also use the RX3 as a match up tool
If I have a horse with a bigger than normal early red stick on the E/L
If that horse rates low on RX 3 I eliminate it
to a secondary

Bill
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Old 01-25-2017, 09:08 AM   #4
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I will go back and check it out.
Tim
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Old 01-25-2017, 10:47 AM   #5
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10

I give the RX 3 rating of 9.5

i really don't use it looking at the ranking I use it as a final decision tool

Lets say I have my top 3 EPR and LPR and Top 5 TPR horses but
I,m still left with more than 5 horses. I use the RX 3 and eliminate the worse ranked horse from the RX 3 group till im left with 5 horses
Then I do the match up of my Phase 1 survivors

Thumbs up for RX
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Old 01-25-2017, 08:22 PM   #6
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After your post I was also curious to see how RX stacked up against BL. I only have the RX1 factor to work with here derived from (winners only) at the tracks shown since September 1. About 4000 races. Keep in mind that these aren't races considered for betting in any way. They are just used for models and profiles.

Out of 10 different ROI's, RX1 outperformed BL in only 4.
TOP 1 DIRT
TOP 2 TURF
TOP 1 TURF SPRINTS
TOP 2 TURF SPRINTS.
Besides turf sprints there could be other groups where RX1 has an advantage if one did further investigating.

From what I see here BL is holding its own.

RX3 might be different but I can't identify it in the latest export files.
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Old 01-26-2017, 08:05 PM   #7
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Hi Bill and Pook. Great posts by both of you. I went over the last dirt only survey and looked at the top 2 of BL/BL,RX3,R2 &R1. Like Pook I will also state that races listed are for general info only and that not all of them would have been bet.
BL/BL
RACES 100[DIRT]
RANK 1 WINS 29 AVG WP $9.05 BET $200 RET $262.50 ROI +.3125
RANK 2 WINS 23 AVG WP $7.35 BET $200 RET $169.00 ROI - .115
TOP 2 WINS 52 AVG WP $8.29 BET $400 RET $431.50 ROI + .0787


RX3
RACES 100 [DIRT]
RANK1 WINS 30 AVG WP $6.42 BET $200 RET $192.60 ROI - .037
RANK2 WINS 21 AVG WP $8.03 BET $200 RET $168.60 ROI - .0157
TOP2 WINS 51 AVG WP $7.08 BET $400 RET $361.20 ROI - .097

RX2
RACES 100 [DIRT]
RANK1 WINS 27 AVG WP $6.78 BET $200 RET$180.30 ROI - .0985
RANK2 WINS 21 AVG WP $10.10 BET $200 RET $222.10 ROI + .1105
TOP2 WINS 48 AVG WP $ 8,38 BET $400 RET $402.40 ROI + .0061

RX1
RACES 100 [DIRT]
RANK1 WINS 29 AVG WP $6.10 BET $200 RET $176.90 ROI - .0115
RANK2 WINS 20 AVG WP $9.06 BET $200 RET $181.10 ROI - .0945
TOP2 WINS 49 AVG WP $7.30 BET $400 RET $ 358.00 ROI - .105

Although BL/BL enjoyed an roi edge for these 100 races based on 300 races. I lean to the RX factors with RX3 being my preference.
Tim G
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Old 01-29-2017, 09:57 AM   #8
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Thanks guys for posting this. I wasn't paying much attention to
the RX3 but now with the limited races I do I see where it does
seem to get the winner in the top 3.
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