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Old 06-09-2018, 12:54 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Parx followup

If any of you read the FTL compilation one of the most interesting stats he presented related to favorites.

Roughly stated and backed by years of research FTL told us that 52% of odds on favorites won while only 18% of non odds-on favorites won.

I reviewed the Jan. thru April charts at ParX with these results:

Sprints:

74/266 sprints won by the favorite; 27.8%
Odds-on favorites 29/56, 51.8%
Other than odds-on 21.4%

Routes:
44/154 routes won by the favorite: 28.6%
Odds-on favorites 9/26, 34.6%
Other than odds-on, 35/128, 27.3%


In this period 63% of all races were sprints. It pays to be aware of odds-on vs. other than odds-on favorites,especially in sprints.

I considered odds on being anything below 6/5, since a horse at 1.1/1 would show on the tote as even money.

hope it helps.
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Old 06-09-2018, 01:48 PM   #2
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This was pretty much a known fact even before FTLs' hard work, You are right it pays to remember that all stats have to be viewed with a critical eye. Thanks for the reminder.
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Old 06-09-2018, 02:41 PM   #3
Mitch44
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This has been well published before, that the lower the odds on favorites the better its chance of winning. And published by Quirin in 1979 page 6,and is old stuff. Also not a money maker for win bets.


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Old 06-09-2018, 02:42 PM   #4
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That information can be very valuable - tells you where you should focus to beat the favorite.

Thanks for the heads up!
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Old 06-09-2018, 08:34 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom View Post
That information can be very valuable - tells you where you should focus to beat the favorite.

Thanks for the heads up!
Thanks, that was the point i was trying to make
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Old 06-09-2018, 10:40 PM   #6
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Bill

Thanks for going to the trouble of posting that and helping
others out.

Jeff
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Old 06-10-2018, 12:49 AM   #7
Bill V.
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Thanks

Hello Bill

Thanks for compiling the data. We can always count on you for these reports, offered to help us . That is very good info about the difference in sprints and routes

Good skill neighbor
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Old 06-10-2018, 09:39 AM   #8
Mitch44
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Actually guys its just the opposite as their the worse favorites to beat. They win far more than their share and their impact value is over 4. Your chance of beating those type favorites is very slim indeed.


"Tells you where to focus to beat the favorite." Where's that? I'm missing something here. I'm always looking to improve my game ,please share. With them winning 55% or so I don't see where that is at.


One thing about Sartin was he always gave credit as to where he obtained stuff. Qurin deserves that credit as it was his research that brought about that information to the racing world. Old farts like Lt1 and me have been around to know that high weights and odds on favorites have been around for more than 35 years or more.
I understand your high respect for FTL and his handicapping prowess but I'm sure he probably just an old fart like Lt1 and I.


Here's the point,give credit where credit is due. Get a copy of Quirin book for yourself. You would be amazed how it can improve your game even through its 38 or so years old. He was the founding Father when it comes to statistical studies and doesn't get the credit due him just as Sartin doesn't when it comes to pace handicapping.


Being well aware of Qurin's stuff I've been employing parts of it for many many years. Money can't be made on those low paying odds on favorites and winning 3 times their share of races, how can we take advantage of that? Well here is an idea reduce the extension of your bet by not trying to beat it. What it does give you is an extremely high % of a key horse. You pretty much have half of the EX. by doing northing or DD or 1 leg in a P3. An even with those low paying winners profit can still be made. And the perfect example occurred with Justify yesterday. A $89 EX and $458 Tri. AS Brohamer said if its the best horse why you trying to beat it?


While FTL may keep many of records I'm sure he'll admit it came from Quirin. Quirin can improve your game in many ways. Just a shame he doesn't get the credit deserved nor Sartin in the racing world. Their ideas don't get lost but they do get unintentionally attributed to others by the young or new to the game.
Where would any of us be without those masters?


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Old 06-10-2018, 01:20 PM   #9
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Other than odds-on 21.4%

That is a nitch where favorites are under-performing, so I would look at those races to be betting into if I have a horse that I think is a contender.
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Old 06-10-2018, 01:53 PM   #10
Mitch44
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That's not really so as favorites are still winning their fair share of races, just not at the high rate that 55% odds on win.


Any favorite regardless of odds needs to be put into context as to whether its legit or not regardless of the odds. Even odds on favorites can be classified as not being legit if its entered today at the wrong distance or surface etc.

Its also a fallacy that favorites win at a 33% rate. When all races are considered perhaps but not even then. When broken down by class as an example the picture is entirely different.


All races have contenders but like favorites some are better than others when placed into context. Hope you have success Tom.
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