Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion > Speculator
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Speculator Speculator - FAQs, Technical Support, Examples, etc

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-28-2006, 09:16 AM   #11
Dap Daddi
Dap Daddi
 
Dap Daddi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 138
Send a message via MSN to Dap Daddi
The #9 Run Goldie Run won the race and paid $14.40
Dap Daddi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2006, 12:57 PM   #12
Turbulator
Grade 1
 
Turbulator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
Another Quandry

Here's the 1st race at Holly on 4/27/06. It presents another problem situation. I came up with the winner as an overlay using the morning line odds, but I'm not sure how. Reworking the race he ranks poorly--so I must have made a mistake, however, if you use line three he moves up to third and becomes an overlay and a bet. This horse won the race and paid 8.40.

The question becomes: this is a 7 furlong race. Do you take the last race at 8 furlongs or go three back and take a 6 furlong race which also has the best speed rating? The problem with the second and third back is that the beaten lengths are 12 and 14 respectively.
Attached Images
 
Turbulator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2006, 12:59 PM   #13
Turbulator
Grade 1
 
Turbulator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
Here is the BL/BL screen.
Attached Images
 
Turbulator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2006, 04:12 PM   #14
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulator
Here's the 1st race at Holly on 4/27/06. It presents another problem situation. I came up with the winner as an overlay using the morning line odds, but I'm not sure how. Reworking the race he ranks poorly--so I must have made a mistake, however, if you use line three he moves up to third and becomes an overlay and a bet. This horse won the race and paid 8.40.

The question becomes: this is a 7 furlong race. Do you take the last race at 8 furlongs or go three back and take a 6 furlong race which also has the best speed rating? The problem with the second and third back is that the beaten lengths are 12 and 14 respectively.
Steve,
that last 8f race showing is a turf race. See the "t" after the distance? Thats turf - "D" is for dirt

also see the "x" aftert the 8f distance? - that means the readout showing is created by extracting the part of that race up to the 6f call. The program cuts the ACTUAL beaten lenghts in half.

hope this helps
Rich
RichieP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2006, 07:03 PM   #15
Turbulator
Grade 1
 
Turbulator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulator
I just got the Speculator150 evaluation version, and I’ve downloaded three cards so far with this program. I’m posting my first betting decisions (paper only at this point) here ahead of time.

It’s 2:30 pm PST, and the three cards are GG 4/27 Hol 4/27 and CRC 4/28. I know some races have already gone off, (I think) but I haven’t looked at any results yet (what good would that do me?)

You’ll notice in some races I say either Pass or 1&2. I just couldn't decide. By doing it this way I can't say, I would have had the 2, or I would have passed, because I don't know if I would have bet or passed. I'll see what kind of results I get and go from there.

In two races I bet three horses to win.

Hopefully as time goes by I'll make the proper adjustments and refine things down. I think that by posting here ahead of time I won't be able to kid myself. That's a big problem in this game.

Anyway here goes. All races are either a pass or I’m betting a hypothetical $2 to win on each number. I’m using morning line odds to base my decisions. I'll post the last three CRC races when I finish them.

GG
1. Pass or 3&4
2. 1&4
3. 2&1
4. Pass
5. Pass or 4&6
6. Pass
7. Pass or 5&1
8. Pass or 1&6

Hol
1. 3&5
2. 4&1
3. Pass
4. 8&7&2
5. pass
6. 1&6
7. 2&3&10
8. pass

CRC
1. 3&1a
2. 4&2
3. 2&1
4. pass
5. pass
6. 2&7
7. Not finished

CRC
1. 3&1a
2. 4&2 +(19.40)
3. 2&1
4. pass
5. pass
6. 2&7
7. 3&10&13
8. 2&5
9. 3&9

Here are my CRC results for 4/28/06

I won the second race for 19.40 and that's it. Bet 30 cahsed for 19.4, lost 11.6.

The three card total is: Bet 78 Cashed for 52.6. Lost 25.4. ROI -32.5%

Some thoughts:

First of all this is the FIRST time I've ever used any kind of software (other than a half a dozen races using Energy) to handicapp. The DOS based interface is difficult to get used to and admittiedly I overlooked some things. I guess my results aren't that bad considering.

Yes, Richie I read what you said about doing one track and taking records. Points taken. But I got a new toy and had to play with it. For not knowing anything at all I'm surprised I hit the races I did. I also think it was good to post my results here, so that I couldn't explain away close calls--it kept me honest.

That being said, I'm not going to be doing any more cards until I go over all of these races. I've already done the post-mortem on the GG & Hol cards. I found some mistakes and learned some things, but it was still discouraging. The CRC card is even more discouraging. Of course I knew it wouldn't be easy--nothing ever is.

The thing is that one or two more wins on each card turns a minus day into a plus. I remember Doc saying on one of the follow-ups that losing four races in a row almost never happened. I know better.

Another thing I realized is that some of these races will never get hit using a computer. There is just no possible way. Take the winner of the 8th at GG on 4/27--Golden Wager (appropriate name). If you go four back and use a 4.5 race from over a year ago that horse becomes a bet. That just isn't going to happen. I don't think anybody would ever use that race. However, just using some common sense analysis I can make a stong case to bet this horse (especially in a short field). This is his second race back after a 315 day layoff and Russel Baze takes the call. That in itself isn't enough to make it a wager, but it should alert you. The fact that he goes off at 4.6 to one can make it a play just on that fact alone. Second race back after a long layoff-Russel on board--overlay odds for a top Jock. The price is good enough to take a shot that he might be ready. He was ready and won by 5. Yea I know that's old style handicapping, but there are still times when it's appropriate. It's called "reading between the lines" and you have to do it from time to time. It's just that it's a lot harder to see and do using a DOS based data program rather than a racing form. Why? Because you're so geared towards "number crunching--but it's still there if you know what to look for.

Steve
Attached Images
 
Turbulator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2006, 07:05 PM   #16
Turbulator
Grade 1
 
Turbulator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
BL/BL using second and fourth race back for Golden Wager.
Attached Images
 
Turbulator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2006, 07:10 PM   #17
Turbulator
Grade 1
 
Turbulator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
BL/BL after hiding the 8/5 favorite and Golden Wager's second line.
Attached Images
 
Turbulator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2006, 07:13 PM   #18
Turbulator
Grade 1
 
Turbulator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
Here is the result chart for GG 4/27/06
Attached Images
 
Turbulator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2006, 06:41 AM   #19
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
Followup at Tup

The winner ( $ 29.80) of last nights 8th race at Hollywood projects off a Tup line( last line btw) That is 2nd BIG priced winner in 3 days coming from that track. The game is a changin.

You bet your bippy that my notes reflect this.

Recordkeeping - How to become an expert at a new venue in relatively short time.

ok
Richie

Last edited by RichieP; 04-29-2006 at 07:00 AM.
RichieP is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Speculator Modeling Workbook Ted Craven Speculator 14 08-07-2006 09:27 PM
How to Obtain Speculator Ted Craven Speculator 0 04-20-2006 07:43 AM
Speculator Question cprescigno General Discussion 2 01-20-2006 09:08 AM
Speculator Section Exactas General Discussion 8 01-19-2006 06:09 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:38 PM.