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Old 04-27-2006, 05:28 PM   #1
Turbulator
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My First Three Cards Using Speculator

I just got the Speculator150 evaluation version, and I’ve downloaded three cards so far with this program. I’m posting my first betting decisions (paper only at this point) here ahead of time.

It’s 2:30 pm PST, and the three cards are GG 4/27 Hol 4/27 and CRC 4/28. I know some races have already gone off, (I think) but I haven’t looked at any results yet (what good would that do me?)

You’ll notice in some races I say either Pass or 1&2. I just couldn't decide. By doing it this way I can't say, I would have had the 2, or I would have passed, because I don't know if I would have bet or passed. I'll see what kind of results I get and go from there.

In two races I bet three horses to win.

Hopefully as time goes by I'll make the proper adjustments and refine things down. I think that by posting here ahead of time I won't be able to kid myself. That's a big problem in this game.

Anyway here goes. All races are either a pass or I’m betting a hypothetical $2 to win on each number. I’m using morning line odds to base my decisions. I'll post the last three CRC races when I finish them.

GG
1. Pass or 3&4
2. 1&4
3. 2&1
4. Pass
5. Pass or 4&6
6. Pass
7. Pass or 5&1
8. Pass or 1&6

Hol
1. 3&5
2. 4&1
3. Pass
4. 8&7&2
5. pass
6. 1&6
7. 2&3&10
8. pass

CRC
1. 3&1a
2. 4&2
3. 2&1
4. pass
5. pass
6. 2&7
7. Not finished
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Old 04-27-2006, 07:53 PM   #2
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Crc

Here are races 7,8 and 9 for CRC. 4/28

7. 3&10&13
8. 2&5
9. 3&9
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Old 04-27-2006, 08:13 PM   #3
Turbulator
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Results are in for two tracks.

GG
1. Pass or 3&4
2. 1&4 (+9.20)
3. 2&1
4. Pass
5. Pass or 4&6
6. Pass
7. Pass or 5&1 (+10.60)
8. Pass or 1&6

Assuming I bet the races I say pass or play:

Won
+9.20
+10.60
Bet 24.00
Total
-4.20

Assuming I pass the same races:

Won
+9.20
Bet
8.00
Total
+1.20

Hol
1. 3&5 (+8.40)
2. 4&1 (+5.00)
3. Pass
4. 8&7&2
5. pass
6. 1&6
7. 2&3&10
8. pass

Won
+8.40
+5.00
Bet 24.00
Total
-10.60

Running total

1. -14.8
or
2. -9.4

Total bet 48
ROI -19.5%


Not too encouraging, but to be expected I suppose for my first two tracks--and the fact I don't know what I'm doing.

I've got a lot of post-mortem to do.
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Old 04-27-2006, 11:15 PM   #4
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This is from race# 4 at Hollywood. If I change the pace line on this horse he comes out right on top and pays 17.60. I must have used the last race because it was at SA, rather than two back because it was at TUP. Is that a hang-up I have to overcome?
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Old 04-27-2006, 11:17 PM   #5
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Here is the F3 screen.
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Old 04-27-2006, 11:20 PM   #6
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And here is the F4 screen. [By the way attachments work now, and I have no idea why. I shut down and reloaded my browser, so that might have been it.]
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Old 04-27-2006, 11:51 PM   #7
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Post Mortem

Steve,
I have a couple of suggestions for you to CONSIDER:

1) FORGET downloading 3 tracks a day. Pick ONE track, download it EVERY day it runs - work the card in a QUIET place in the house ALONE with yourself. Do this procedure for the first 30 days. Otherwise you are just spinning round and round. Quality of work over quantity.

2) keep RECORDS from day one. Most important ones:

A) E/L Graph ( screen 2). If you are picking pacelines using a line where the horse has REPEATED its running style recording the winners" look" from this one readout will pay you bigger dividends than any other readout.

B) Perceptor-1 and Perceptor-2 ( screen 6) winners rankings.

These are most important in my opinion. There are others as shown on the workbook I have made for Spec users. Feel free to download it and make use of it. If you are going to work maiden races u need to keep a seperate sheet for them.

If you do NOT keep records you ARE going to LOSE. Of this there is absolute CERTAINTY. If you do NOT keep records you ARE going to LOSE.

here is a record u can keep which nobody records and especially for someone starting out with new software can give you unreal feedback QUICKLY

enter YOUR paceline selections - then after the race runs compare how your choice of lines did against using best of last 3 races at comparable distance structure ( EXACTLY like your "post mortem" look at that Hol race) - the fact that u took the time to look BACK on the race is very very good. Now really carry it thru to its fullest. after 20 races compare YOUR lines against best of last 3 comparable ok? INSTANT REAL FEEDBACK


3) Work the card AWAY from this board Steve. Keep things away from the lights. Work ALONE and work QUIET. Record what you are seeing and reflect on it. QUIETLY and ALONE.

hope this helps

Richie

If you do not keep records you can NOT win.

Last edited by RichieP; 04-27-2006 at 11:54 PM.
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Old 04-28-2006, 01:33 AM   #8
Lefty
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turbo, I never use a 5.5 line for a longer race, if i can help it. The Tup line was a 6f line and a much better line to use, in my opinion.
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Old 04-28-2006, 05:02 AM   #9
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Turbulator
Glad to see you got the attactments working
Now that I can see all the screens I would use line 2
line 3 is at 5.5 furlongs and a poor effort in a Maiden Claimer were the horse was bet
Line 2 is its best of the last 3, = A win line and at the same 6.0 distance
The last line race was a try at $20,000 at SA now this race is a step down to $16000 looks like the line to use for me
GS
Bill
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Old 04-28-2006, 08:18 AM   #10
Ted Craven
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The TUP line 2 does get the winner, however, was this merely lucky?

A problem I regularly encounter is (and not just with TUP to SoCal) would you expect to use a TUP line (and for a horse who never succeeded anywhere better than TUP or EMD) unadjusted to represent how it was going to run at SA or HOL? By some measurements, TUP 6f runs generally about a second faster than either SA or HOL, yet no one believes TUP or EMD horses are on the same calibre planet as SoCal.

So my problem is if you accept this TUP line unadorned and take the win, and do the same in 9 other future races, you may overrate TUP horses 8 of 10 races taking low class but fast TUP lines in SoCal at face value. If you slow this horse up by anything over 1 second (manual adjust) she doesn't look so good.

In summary, I wonder whether Steve's inclination to use the last SA line rather than the 2nd TUP or 3rd EMD line was not the better choice - to lose this race but get a better handle on TUP to SoCal in general?

Any SoCal experts deal with this regularly?

Thanks,

Ted
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