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Old 09-23-2011, 05:45 PM   #1
RichieP
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Sunday 9/24 - Woodbine Race 10 - TM 105 Race Class

Here is Sundays 10th from Woodbine going 8.5f on the grass
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Old 09-23-2011, 05:46 PM   #2
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Old 09-23-2011, 05:48 PM   #3
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/./

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iCHN...eature=related
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Old 09-23-2011, 07:08 PM   #4
Bill Lyster
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Pretty much a paceless race with no one having taken the early lead in a turf race, so I suspect that the 12, a firster on turf, gets the lead for the early part of the race. He can't finish, so he's out.

The 1-2-11 have been either 1st or 2nd at their 2nd calls when winning at NW1x level. the 1 was tandem with the 9 last out and got beat badly; the 2 is slow to the 6 furlong mark, so is out; the 11 closed 8th-6th-2nd two back and did not give up ground or position in its last at 7f on turf.

The 9 is the FPLR and held position while gaining lengths against a 109.5 2nd call pace last out.

the 11 is the favorite, a 2nd choice if I have to use two horses, otherwise my place horse.

9 to win.


good luck


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Old 09-25-2011, 12:41 PM   #5
RichieP
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The race is off the grass and running on the Polytrack. SCRATCH the #'s 1,5,9,10,12


Here are my contender/ Power Lines

Best of luck to any jumping in
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Old 09-25-2011, 01:44 PM   #6
Bill Lyster
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big changes with scratches and surface change

Looking at position moves to stretch
2-4-4-1
3-5-4-3
4-4-3-2
6-7-6-2
7-1-1-2
8-4-4-5, out
11-3-3-1

Looking at poly lines where they exist, looks like the 7 gets the lead off line 4, so pace is 25-49.6-113.5; cant win with this pace, especially with the 4 willing to go by the mile in 138.2

From Richie's power list you might add line 2 for the 3 and then compare all the sprinters. the 3 7 and 8 would then be eliminated.

So I am left with the 4, 6 and 11. 6 is hard to gage off the turf lines. I am not in love with this horse, but as one of three contenders lets look. In the last she was 1 off a 138.5 at the stretch call which is about today's pace and in line 3 finished 1.5 off a 140.3 for 8.5 furlongs. I think Mth probably was a hard surface, so you might discount that race. The CD race is slower than todays pace and the finish time is slower than the best we can see.

At todays pace the 4 can run 144.3. This leaves the 11. I got suckered yesterday by a fast 7f horse trying to go a route and from experience I recall that the Hats suggested 6.4 second adjustment per half furlong is a bit fast for stretching Woodbine sprints to routes. I am going to take line 3 for the 11, but the final time there translates to 146.4

Primary pick is the 4, both ways in exacta with the 11 and 6. Note the 6 has not won in last 10 races. The 4 is least experienced but won at NW1X level at first asking. the 11 has had several tries at that level and the 6 the same. Both the 11 and 6 have recently placed at OC 62.5,NW2X lately.

If I had to make a straight pick it would be 4-11-6

Good luck to you all,
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Old 09-25-2011, 06:16 PM   #7
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