Assorted Tracks (Value Possibilities) 01-12-12 - Pace and Cap

partsnut · 01-12-2012, 09:54 AM

Assorted Tracks (Value Possibilities) 01-12-12

Today I am showing 15 possible plays but I will disregard any horse that is bet down to less then 8-1 odds.
My selections are before scratches
Patience, discipline, win betting and value is how you can beat this game.
You have to anticipate and deal with protracted run outs and play the game for the long haul and hopefully you will show a profit. Horse racing is a numbers game.
Unfortunately, not very many can deal with this.

Fortunately, There are a few that can.

LRL

R4 – (#3)

GP

R6 – (#6)
R9 – (#2)

TP

R4 – (#7 & #6)
R8 – (#1 & #2)

FG

R1 – (#3)
R6 – (#8 & #5)
R10 – (#4)

SA

R1 – (#4)
R4 – (#4)

GG

R5 – (#2)
R7 – (#6)

Bill V. · 01-12-2012, 10:09 AM

Hi Bill

I only looked at 1 of your races yesterday . By the time i saw your thread
most of the races had already run
The race that was going off next was TUP 7
Can you give a short recap why you liked the 3 and 7 ?

Although I don't want to tell anybody what to bet or how much or get into
areas that are very individualized regarding decision making which is each of our own business I understand that no
two people can or should bet exactly the same.
That said You show a .20 loss. It must have took you many hours of either watching passing or betting lost races
before you hit the winner in TUP Plus the time it took you to handicap
23 races

My question.. What about the time devoted to handicapping 23 races
and the strain of a lot of misses
Does this equate a value to you ?
or Is what your doing purely numbers game of "This horse could win and IF it does I will have it " with a mind set of "if not who cares" ?
or are you actually handicapping fully all these races
totally confident and sitting and watching the tote board or are you making conditional bets . are you involved ready to bet the horses that conform to your requirement or is it "Lets see what happens " and your moving on with your normal daily activities.
Either way 23 races does involve added time and attention
That I feel you should be compensated for. .
Therefore In my opinion based on watching your work for many years
I feel your missing the forest which is your natural ability. Your looking for a rare tree or to find something in a tree
Regardless this is just my opinion and it probably is not worth anything to you
If you could give me a brief recap on TUP race 7

Good Skill today
hope you hit many of your value plays
with you goals
Bill

partsnut · 01-12-2012, 10:46 AM

Hi Bill,

I am in the process of testing a fairly automated process which I am studying. It takes very little time to assess the value horses in a specific race. It involves pattern recognition. I qualify each race and try to be as selective as possible.. Yesterday was day 1 and today I have refined my selections. I enjoy watching each race and am very hopeful that I will soon do this as a full time occupation and generate some good income from my studies and efforts.

Regarding yesterdays Race-8 where I selected 3 & 7.
The (3) was the early and mid pace horse in a race that could have gone either early or late. According to my figures, the (3) was the total pace horse.
The (7) was a mistake and I shouldn't have used it.

Although I only had 1 winner, I was happy with yesterdays results.
I realize that another winner would have given me a decent profit as opposed to a break even.

When you play for profit you do not play the same way you play in a contest.
Picking winners is great for contest players. Making value bets for profit requires a much smaller percentage of winners.

partsnut · 01-12-2012, 04:34 PM

I almost had a big payer here but got beat at the wire.

My pick paid $24.00 for place.

FG

R1 – (#3)
R6 – (#8 & #5) #8 paid $24.00 for place.
R10 – (#4)

partsnut · 01-12-2012, 04:59 PM

Another close one. I got beat in the stretch.

GP

R6 – (#6)
R9 – (#2) Paid $ 8.20 for place

atlasaxis · 01-12-2012, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by partsnut

I almost had a big payer here but got beat at the wire.

My pick paid $24.00 for place.

FG

R1 – (#3)
R6 – (#8 & #5) #8 paid $24.00 for place.
R10 – (#4)

Bill,

Excellent call on the 8 @ FG R6. My little pace calc had him and my heart skipped a few beats when he came 4 wide at the top of the stretch to pull past the 9, only to realize that stretch @ FG is a BEAST, and the 9 came back on him. UGH. I'm not a big w-p-s wagerer! Glad I was today!

Keep 'em rolling Bill!

Tom

partsnut · 01-12-2012, 08:57 PM

Recap 01-12-12

No winners today.
10 playable races lost

There were 3 bet downs and 2 scratches.

Losing streaks are expected when betting value.

I will look at 4 more races from CT that I posted on Buds thread.

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01-12-2012, 09:54 AM	#1
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	Assorted Tracks (Value Possibilities) 01-12-12 Assorted Tracks (Value Possibilities) 01-12-12 Today I am showing 15 possible plays but I will disregard any horse that is bet down to less then 8-1 odds. My selections are before scratches Patience, discipline, win betting and value is how you can beat this game. You have to anticipate and deal with protracted run outs and play the game for the long haul and hopefully you will show a profit. Horse racing is a numbers game. Unfortunately, not very many can deal with this. Fortunately, There are a few that can. LRL R4 – (#3) GP R6 – (#6) R9 – (#2) TP R4 – (#7 & #6) R8 – (#1 & #2) FG R1 – (#3) R6 – (#8 & #5) R10 – (#4) SA R1 – (#4) R4 – (#4) GG R5 – (#2) R7 – (#6)

01-12-2012, 10:09 AM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	How was your day Hi Bill I only looked at 1 of your races yesterday . By the time i saw your thread most of the races had already run The race that was going off next was TUP 7 Can you give a short recap why you liked the 3 and 7 ? Although I don't want to tell anybody what to bet or how much or get into areas that are very individualized regarding decision making which is each of our own business I understand that no two people can or should bet exactly the same. That said You show a .20 loss. It must have took you many hours of either watching passing or betting lost races before you hit the winner in TUP Plus the time it took you to handicap 23 races My question.. What about the time devoted to handicapping 23 races and the strain of a lot of misses Does this equate a value to you ? or Is what your doing purely numbers game of "This horse could win and IF it does I will have it " with a mind set of "if not who cares" ? or are you actually handicapping fully all these races totally confident and sitting and watching the tote board or are you making conditional bets . are you involved ready to bet the horses that conform to your requirement or is it "Lets see what happens " and your moving on with your normal daily activities. Either way 23 races does involve added time and attention That I feel you should be compensated for. . Therefore In my opinion based on watching your work for many years I feel your missing the forest which is your natural ability. Your looking for a rare tree or to find something in a tree Regardless this is just my opinion and it probably is not worth anything to you If you could give me a brief recap on TUP race 7 Good Skill today hope you hit many of your value plays with you goals Bill

01-12-2012, 10:46 AM	#3
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	Hi Bill, I am in the process of testing a fairly automated process which I am studying. It takes very little time to assess the value horses in a specific race. It involves pattern recognition. I qualify each race and try to be as selective as possible.. Yesterday was day 1 and today I have refined my selections. I enjoy watching each race and am very hopeful that I will soon do this as a full time occupation and generate some good income from my studies and efforts. Regarding yesterdays Race-8 where I selected 3 & 7. The (3) was the early and mid pace horse in a race that could have gone either early or late. According to my figures, the (3) was the total pace horse. The (7) was a mistake and I shouldn't have used it. Although I only had 1 winner, I was happy with yesterdays results. I realize that another winner would have given me a decent profit as opposed to a break even. When you play for profit you do not play the same way you play in a contest. Picking winners is great for contest players. Making value bets for profit requires a much smaller percentage of winners. Last edited by partsnut; 01-12-2012 at 10:57 AM.

01-12-2012, 04:34 PM	#4
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	I almost had a big payer here but got beat at the wire. My pick paid $24.00 for place. FG R1 – (#3) R6 – (#8 & #5) #8 paid $24.00 for place. R10 – (#4)

01-12-2012, 04:59 PM	#5
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	Another close one. I got beat in the stretch. GP R6 – (#6) R9 – (#2) Paid $ 8.20 for place

01-12-2012, 08:57 PM	#7
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	Recap 01-12-12 Recap 01-12-12 No winners today. 10 playable races lost There were 3 bet downs and 2 scratches. Losing streaks are expected when betting value. I will look at 4 more races from CT that I posted on Buds thread.