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Old 08-02-2012, 11:13 PM   #1
lightspeed2011
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Class of the field

Ted (or anyone),

I would appreciate some pros/cons on a couple of thoughts from other readings. Some of this may be basic to the more experienced or a subprocess of other considerations.

1 - I haven't seen much discussion in the way of weighing form patterns. An approach I read about (can't remember where) suggested finding the high and low speeds. Let’s say an 84 to 66, and has never hit the top twice in a row and after hitting top usually drops 6 to 10 points in next race. Gauging whether that speed is achievable again or not - say ran 82 last out - that's almost the top number and depending on age, races, etc may be a downgrade indicator. A variation of looking for “W” or “V” repeating patterns.

2 - In James Quinn’s “Class of the Field” (1987), he present an approach that sounded interesting to me and I have made some attempts to program it. It has to do with assigning a value range (2-7 for mdn clm to 12-20 for G1) for the time of the race based on the class and a value (1-5) on how competitive the race was. This part of the formula, (timefctr * compfctr) - beaten lengths (8 max) = performance index. Then the performance index is divided by this race class par (15 for mdn clm to 48 for G1) to get a class expectation to par for this race (1.0 = “par”).

To find his “Blueboys” (best of the best), he suggests the following:
average the performance index of:
1-the most recent representative race (no trouble, surf good, etc)
2-the best rating against the most advanced competition

Using his ratings, a “par” mdn claimer rates a 15, while just getting out of the gate in the Derby is a 12.

A lone early winner setting the pace would probably rate a 1 or 2 * speed factor
While 3 earlys fighting each other might rate a 4 or 5 * speed factor for at least part of the race even if it faded

Anyway, I’ve been playing around with the value of using one or a combination of:
1 - a rating from the highest class run
2 - a rating from any recent good race
3 - a rating from race comparable to today’s
to see if there is any correlation to performance and using the internal fractions to try and reflect the internal battling going on and adjust for closer/faders, etc.

Thanks.
Bob

An example of not reading the form completely: at Latonia (now Turfway), For a sprint, I skimmed over a horse because it had finished 10th or 12th or something like that. Once out of the gate - BANG - a 6 length lead by the top of the stretch. What did I miss? Looked at the form a LITTLE more closely - last race was the Derby - what a dummy!
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Old 09-29-2014, 11:12 PM   #2
omar
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Cool assessing a horse's class/form

First off i know this response is a little past the expiration date of your question but sometimes if i'm not napping on cloud 9 i'm just too busy picking winners and contenders! FORGET NUMBERS is the best way to assess class/form.Let's say 2 horses are running today, one in a 25k claimer and another in a grade 1 race. For arguments sake they both ran 2 weeks ago,on the same day,but in 2 different races,however their respective running lines were identical: 2nd by 2,3rd by 4,5th by 8 and 8th by 14 at the wire.By chance that was their 1st race after a 6 month layoff to the day by both of them. Also by chance, their 3rd race back was also run on the same day and they both won in wire to wire fashion. So who is the better bet today?the claimer,the stakes horse,both of them 2nd off l/o, or neither one? The answer is this:certainly not the claimer,but i would trust 2nd off l/o on a gr 1 horse unless he's in against other gr 1 horses coming off wins or close finishes. A horses recent form is his class.that claimer today is in for 12.5 k and is 6/5,but until he shows me a good race i'm looking elsewhere for the winner. I let the class of today's race determines how far back i go in a horses's pp's to assess his class/form and to pick the right paceline to use. Later, Omar.
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