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Old 08-18-2020, 06:20 PM   #61
Mrbill
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Great replies guys and I appreciate your insight. My plan of attack is to first use my track model to identify contenders, use the 4 factor method to further weed out the non-contenders, then do a check of the other factors such as positive jockey switch, etc. I'm going to make myself a note on items to look for so I keep focused. I'm a very firm believer in the saying "think long, think wrong. It is my belief that contender selection should be a fairly quick. I'd rather put the focus and time on bet construction as this is very important for horizontal players.
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Old 08-21-2020, 10:33 PM   #62
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Richard;

I had a question for you. This is one of the races I lost yesterday. This is the fourth race at Saratoga. When you do the eliminations, the winner Sky Kitten is not in the contender group. However, the horse looks very good in the 3rd section (PF3, TSF3, etc.). I haven't seen this very often so far, but it blew up my pick 4 ticket. What are your thoughts on handling horses like this?

I never use the non-contender feature of RDSS. I want to look at every horse, and make my own decisions. Sky Kitten was #2 in VDC, (so much for "syndicates" betting them), it went off at 17/1. Just using my simple "all track" turf route profile, she was #2 in both my contender profile, and my win profile. If you look at the various (other) paceline combinations she's also up there, as 2 or three, in many of them, (and you *could* be keeping records of which of the *other* paceline selectors work best in that particular race type.) She was also # 2 in my personal version of CSR, which I described a number of years ago. The Track Master speed ratings (adjusted) are well worth using systematically, (which is what I use to make the CSR). They are of help in some races, but not all. My final contenders were 2,8,6. I dutched the 2 and the 8. Besides the traditional CSR, the class ratings we get from Track Master are useful, as we can see how successful the horse was (SR) in what class ranking (number). So there are various ways they could be "combined", or used together. In this race, there is a sort of "hidden" class advantage in the 2 and the 8, which one might not notice, unless you look closely, or have a tool to do that. I find BPP and PL are nice, but not anywhere as good as the profiles you can build for yourself using only RDSS. We don't really know what the models are that either of them use, (the stats are available in a few places, and in one you can even make your own).
Has anyone every done a study to determine which of them does best in what sort of race ? One needs that information. My only point is that RDSS (plus Excel) has all the tools necessary to do above 50 % one horse betting, and in the 70's and 80 % two-horse win betting. This thread is great, as using a structured handicapping and betting method is great.
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Old 08-22-2020, 12:06 PM   #63
Mitch44
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Good analysis Dorianmode.


As far as Bris Prime and Profit they are effected by class just as any other factor, or in other words the better class of races and horses the more predicable.

The RX factors like any factor won't get all winner in the top 5. It does capture about 90%. The mistake here was making the horse a non contender with great readouts. The RDSS program will get some horses that Prime or Profit won't and Prime and Profit will get some horses that the program won't. The combination of Prime and Profit with the program factors produce more winners than just the program itself.


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Old 08-22-2020, 01:59 PM   #64
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This horse is what you look for using Richies' longshot angle. A non-contender which ranked 2 vdc and 4th csr. Additionally as was pointed out she ranked 3rd in 4 supp factors
plus tie at #1 te, 1 f3, and #2 TS+F3. As Doc always pointed out horse ranked 3-3-3,3-3-2,are prime longshot plays. Going off at 17-1 seals the deal.
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Old 08-22-2020, 05:16 PM   #65
rmath
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Tim is right about the Longshot angle I use in finding horses like Sky Kitten.
Using the top 5 Profit and Prime along with the longshot angle I get around 95% ofall winners.
If Dorianmond is willing to share some of his findings with all of us we might be able to approach 100%.
Richard
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Old 08-22-2020, 06:21 PM   #66
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I updated the documentation at the top of the Thread to correct the DTV range settings Dick actually uses. Should be -25 to +25.

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Old 05-05-2021, 11:44 AM   #67
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Update

I have just finished a 500+ test using the 100% DTV setting and the default +15 to -15 settings instead of the +25 and -25 and found no appreciable difference.
My findings are the same , so use either setting.

I do recommend the 100 on DTV because this has a profound effect on the CSR rating.
Thanks

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Old 05-05-2021, 06:47 PM   #68
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The track variant applied to a SR such as a TrackMaster SR is totally different that the variant as applied to individual Factors within the program or how it adjusts the line you selected.

With a SR its all applied to final time. In the program the variant is applied different and is spread out throughout the different Fractions and Factors in the Program. By distributing it among the 3 Fr's it lessens the impact on the race because it diluted by spreading it out to 3 places(3 FR's) as to putting it all in one place( final time).

Its diluted even further when applied to other Factors such as FX, FW etc.
With the SR the whole variant goes into the SR and is accounted for with in SR. I.e.
the variant shown is +27, That +27 is within the SR and there is absolutely no way for you to change it. If the SR is an 85 that its an 85 and that +27 was incorporated and is taken into account for the horse to earn that 85.

Now with the RDSS program we have choices we can make with that +27, we can use it all or 50% or we can use it all or 50% up to what ever setting we set the slide bar to such as -15 or +15. When I say use ,I mean on the line selected and whatever the variant is for that race and that day.

Sartin found that too many members were losing races by over adjusting therefore he increased their winning of races by recommending they only use 50% of the true variant. Their reports proved him to be correct. He also said that given an adjustment we tend to take it every time even when it shouldn't be used.
Having these options no two will get the same results. If one person uses 100% and another 50% their results should not be the same . There may be small differences but there will be differences, despite how Sartin figured out a way to nullify most of it.

His solutions to adjustments problems eliminated the need for a Model and Track Profile and took his methods to new heights. Huey Mahl understood that distributing the variant among 3 Fr. lessen it impact rather that putting it all on final time such as in a SR. Sartin took it even further with fuzzy logic to lessen the impact of the Variant even more.

Abnormal variants are a fact of racing that must be dealt with to be successful. There is nothing anyone can do about the variant of a SR, its in there weather you like it or not. Most SR's don't even disclose the variant that's within its SR. I.e with a Bris SR no one but the computer knows what the variant was for that day and race.

Appling it to Pace is a whole other story and greatly effects success or not. Whatever your setting are within RDSS has nothing to do with how applied to a TrackMaster SR, that's done solely by them and their written program to determine the SR.


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Last edited by Mitch44; 05-05-2021 at 06:51 PM.
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Old 05-06-2021, 09:09 AM   #69
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Just for clarity the adjusted SR in RDSS and which the CSR is based on is changed by the program.And the one you should be using. Its adjusted by distance and the settings of 50% or 100% of variant used and what the + or minus setting is used.

With other variants they can't be changed such as a Beyer or a Bris SR, in fact with Bris one doesn't even know what the variant is as they don't publish it, nor what it is within their Pace figures or how its distributed within those pace figures.

With whatever setting you use you may not see a difference depending on what track you play. SA seldom gets any rain therefore not much change and they tend to be very consistent .Not so with a track like Sar that's gets a lot of rain even in August primarily due to its location whereas other tracks get most their rain in the spring. CD in the spring get more rain than in its fall meet.

Weather, location and composition of soil are the biggest factors effecting the variant. Although maintenance of the track and class of horses and races can also effect the variant. You may get away with a 100% setting at one track such as a SA but not another as the difference can vary tremendously.

The Sartin recommended setting of using 50% smooths out differences of various tracks, due to location, weather and composition of the track. Its strongly recommended to use the recommended settings of 50% adjustment and -15 and +15. Additionally I recommend to be aware of any variant out of the norm as compared to the other contenders and lines you have chosen.


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Old 05-06-2021, 12:33 PM   #70
rmath
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Agree but disagree

Mitch , I agree that using the 50 or 100 % setting on the DTV will not prevent anyone from getting most of the winners.
But in my research using the 100% setting I got 7% more winners in the CSR ratings than I got using the 50% setting.
The CSR rating ( a Dave Schwartz rating ) is a compounded rating based on the last 4 speed ratings compounded. And while I agree that it could be improved upon if it were Distance and surface dependent it is still a very useful tool to be used in separating the true contenders in a race.

Richard
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