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Old 02-08-2018, 10:11 AM   #61
Lt1
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Well stated Ted and FTL. How many times did the Doc try to hammer home the point that it was not any programs' top 2 but your top 2 that were the bets. Nice to see it restated here.
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Old 02-08-2018, 01:13 PM   #62
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I was offline a few days, but wanted to reply to your response to my posting FTL. It is as Ted says an HTR spreadsheet, and it is formatted a little differently than you suggest, but I believe the info and my statement is correct:


For all races last 12 months:


Factor Plays Win W+P WPS . 02/08/2018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play All 311261 13% 26% 39%


This means there were over 300,000 horses that raced, and since no filter was applied there were 13% winners or alternatively a little less than 8 horses per race on average since each race has a winner.


Now using the filter of first after layoff only---all races.


Play All 25262 11% 21% 33%
There were 25,000+ horses who were 1pL and of those there were 11% winners


There was little difference whatever the surface except for AR with smaller sample size:
Dirt Sprint 12789 10% 21% 33%
Dirt Route 02030 11% 22% 33%
Turf Sprint 02368 10% 21% 32%
Turf Route 02531 11% 21% 31%
Wet Sprint 02705 11% 21% 33%
Wet Route 00484 11% 25% 36%
Artf Sprint 01900 11% 22% 35%
Artf Route 00455 14% 25% 39%


Using a proprietary HTR algorithm called KAT with 1pL:
KAT 6 01206 16% 31% 43%
KAT 7 01284 21% 37% 51%
KAT 8 00549 18% 35% 48%
KAT 9 00464 28% 45% 61%
KAT= 10 00084 33% 50% 62%


There were 3587 horses in that cluster and roughly 717 winners or about 20% winners on average. So I would stick to my contention that throwing out these layoff horses is dicey. I didn't post the WROI because I don't know how to align the longer column lines. It is not profitable without further filtering, but my point has to do with the win% regardless of ROI.


I use both RDSS and HTR. They complement each other, because RDSS shows the pace picture much much easier than HTR, but HTR has many features that relate to form, et al that are easier to reference than RDSS. (It's ironic that HTR isn't easy to grab the pace picture from, since Ken Massa programmed Brohamer's ideas, but Ken has gone away from a pace approach over the years). In addition, HTR has the "ROBOT" which allows one to make complicated queries leading to spreadsheet data in anywhere from 60 seconds to 5 to 10 minutes.
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Old 02-08-2018, 05:38 PM   #63
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I can come up with similar numbers.
I took two separate years and performed your calculation.

Year 1 – 348,121 total horses
Of those, 24,204 horses were off more than 90 days.
Of those, 2,296 horses won or 9.5%.

Year 2 – 327,172 total horses
Of those, 22,425 horses were off more than 90 days.
Of those, 2,210 horses won or 9.9%.

As you can see, the results I got (9.5% and 9.9%) are very comparable to the 11% you show.
And, as I just did above, you calculated the number of winners there were from the group of horses that were off more than 90 days.
But, that is NOT how the statistic is calculated.

The idea is to first find the number of winning horses. Then determine how many of those winning horses were off more than 90 days.

So, in my Year 1 – there were a total of 42,543 winners.
From that group of winners, the same 2,296 horses off more than 90 days (as shown above) were race winners, which comes to 5.4% of all race winners.

In my Year 2 – there were a total of 40,442 winners.
From that group of winners, the same 2,210 horses off more than 90 days (as shown above) were race winners, which comes to 5.5% of all race winners.
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Old 02-08-2018, 09:39 PM   #64
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bah your answer is with the question

yup
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Old 02-08-2018, 09:43 PM   #65
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Tell Im listesing

B a h
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Old 02-08-2018, 10:10 PM   #66
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Ted makes good points.

Butt


F T L your the best teacher

Im a student of the M E T H O

F T L YOUR Rock in Roll is good for me

Im all In For the results Rock And Roll just Blows My MIND

Your discussion has been a tribute to Who You Are A Teacher and wisdom of unbelieved circumstances until you open our Brains of just how too achieve success as in Looking at the P P 's

Im Just saying is W O W
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Old 02-08-2018, 10:13 PM   #67
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Results

How about this $75.00 $49.00 $115.00

WoW last line
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Old 02-11-2018, 04:29 PM   #68
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I know I am late with this and kept meaning to do so

Neil S great job on hitting that
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Old 02-14-2018, 01:24 PM   #69
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Decided to take the day and just follow races at Gulfstream and Tampa watching for early speed. Race# 2 at gpx a sprint on dirt #2@ 16/1 takes early lead and goes wire to wire and beats the 3/5 favorite by a length.
Race #2 @Tampa a route #2 @ 6/1 takes the lead and goes wire to wire.
Spending the day seeing how many early win at a good price.
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Old 02-14-2018, 02:19 PM   #70
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Hey Charlie I believe it was the 7 at Tampa r2 wtw.
Tim
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