Predictive Factors for Contenders

[lone speed]

Glad that you are feeling better Bill

I believe that I asked this question to RMath years ago....

From the RX3 rankings....Can someone check how many of the #3rd rank and #4th rank RX3 horses had the top ranking on Early Pace (First Fraction Only)

Great stats guys....

[Mitch44]

Mick:


In doing an analysis of your stats, specifically posts # 1,7, & 26 of this thread I completely concur with your findings. They meet my findings of research that the top 4 of Profit contain the winner about 77% of the time.


I undertook that well over 10 years ago in reference to the top 4 of Profit. Its been so long I don't really recall when that was undertaken. Mine was conducted without regard to class of the race etc. Later refinements proved that the % of top 4 Profit can be improved upon with selected types of races.


Your study also validates Sartin's finding that routes are more predictive than sprints. The reason for this is that a horse has time to overcome trouble in a route which it can't in a sprint unless really superior on class. A good rounded number for a sprint is about 6 lengths per second. (Actually about 5.80 lengths). Therefore if it runs up on the heels and has to take up or any other trouble it'll lose about 6 lengths minimum, more dependent on the amount of time and also where the interference takes place.


Additionally your study used the automated pace line selection as in the program. If a member were to verify the pace lines using Sartin's latest guidelines and Preceptor the percentage in the top 4 could also be raised. It reasonable for a member to reach an 85% in the top 4 RX 3. And if he or she were a two horse bettor it'll serve them well.


Great stuff Mick, excellent work. Your work is like steering control which is much better than cruise control which will steer you in your future endeavors.


Terrific posts,



Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Bill:


You posted;" -FTL guidelines." Is that a minus meaning without his guidelines or with his guidelines?
Thanks,
Mitch44

[mick]

I've added more sprints and included routes.

[Bill V.]

hi Mitch

That was kind a misprint. what I was hoping to point out was, I am doing very well using FTL's guidelines, I wish I could be doing better,
Right now my major weakness are using horses with "0" races and moving to
plus races, when the 0 line has no excuses.
Another weakness, so far is reading the conditions carefully,
Richie P's most recent Match Up race from Laurel is a good example of this
weakness in my game.

Blessings
Bill

[dlivery]

Hi Bill

You are doing just fine Bill
One question Using Horses in the"0" races and moving to
plus races, when the 0 line has no excuses. Would you explain further

[Mitch44]

Thanks for the clarification Bill. One has to start with the conditions to pick proper pace lines noting a minimum of surface
& distance but I also note the other conditions which aide in separating contenders. I just skip over a bad line and use what represents the horse by using the best of the last 3 year olds are notorious for throwing in a clinker for absolutely no reason and run back with a big one.


Hope your doing well and better.


Mitch44

[Lt1]

I took a look at my last 100 races to see how how RX3 performed. Contender selection was the top 5 PL horses. Paceline selection was the best of the last 3 perceptor. I did change the program line when I did not agree with the line selected. All races were for 3 &up dirt and turf. The tracks involved were Parx,Tampa Bay, OP, and MVR. Here are the results


#1 31 wins 31% AWP $5.80
#2 17 wins 17% AWP $10.49
#3 12 wins %12 AWP $10.25
#4 15 wins 15% AWP $14.00
#5 10 wins 10% Awp $25.94
For those who might feel that 100 races maybe too small a sample I will state that the 85% winners in the PL top5 has been constant over the last 5 yrs that I've tracked it. No large data base was involved but I did conducted several random surveys a year. For what it's worth, since nothing wins 100%, I'm confident that using the top 5 PL horses is a very solid contender selection process.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by lone speed

Glad that you are feeling better Bill

I believe that I asked this question to RMath years ago....

From the RX3 rankings....Can someone check how many of the #3rd rank and #4th rank RX3 horses had the top ranking on Early Pace (First Fraction Only)

Great stats guys....

hello Lonespeed

Here are some stats on my top 4 F1 horses. I used 3 criteria
Pace of Race velocity F1, Pace of Horse velocity F1
and CBL F1 column BK on the template.
I have 58 sprints and 43 routes

[Mitch44]

Jimmy Bradshaw said;" You always have a bad horse in the mix." So even when getting it down to 3 there is a non winner in there. This is where experience comes in and
also is a reason why a two horse bettor has an edge.

Getting the winner in the top 4 a high percentage of the time puts the player in the game and on the field and not as a spectator in the stands. They should demand a top 4 of 80 to 85 % to be a major player.


Enjoy the crowd and take their money.
Mitch44