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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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03-30-2018, 05:28 PM | #1 |
Happy Punting
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 481
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Florida Derby Time
The fun starts now.
I really like AUDIBLE in this spot. Happy Punting! Jon |
03-31-2018, 01:17 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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One more month till Kentucky Derby!!!!
MrPagine
Thanks for your analysis Mendelssohn just ran a huge race in the UAE Derby- he won by 18++ open lengths... I have narrowed my contenders to Audible, Catholic Boy and Mississippi... Audible is the obvious choice with his huge sustained run in the last race and Todd Pletcher is again in the Derby Hunt. Mississippi ran second to Noble Indy in his 2nd pace line back who went on to win the Louisiana Derby. Today's is Mississippi's 3rd route off the layoff.... Catholic Boy has the best 2nd fraction move of these contenders... Good skills |
03-31-2018, 05:29 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Florida Derby.
In looking at the race the FPLR belongs to the 9 46.4-111.0
The only other horse who has run successfully behind these fractions are the 8 and 5. Been reading the hat file on the FPLR. So Richey or anyone else who is more versed in this technique give a shout out. Bob |
03-31-2018, 06:21 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I'll go 8-4-1-6
Mitch44 |
03-31-2018, 06:27 PM | #5 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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I keep returning to this screen. They're 3YOs, so who knows? But ...
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03-31-2018, 06:29 PM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Fla
Holly came from Miami Fla.
I will go with the 6 and 9 |
03-31-2018, 06:34 PM | #7 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 97
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Raceman, not to speak for anybody but…I agree with you about the FPLR. A horse who ran well &/or up close in the FPLR race should get a look.
However, in this example, the 9 & 5 were in a tandem which was 9’s last race (fplr) in an OC race. 5 then went on to race in the Fountain G2 and failed miserably. That race was a tandem with the 4 & 1. With all that said, I’m not sure where that leaves the 9…But I do think the 8 is a solid fave. I see the 1 & 4 up front with plenty of company up on the pace. The 8 may well be the one to win. I see it going OTE which he is and likes to be up close if he doesn’t get caught up in the E. However, 9/5 is a pass. I wish the ML on the 6 was higher. He’s ran 9F and has ran in Graded company. I may look at a shot on the 6 letting the others run up front and coming a little late. Just looked at live odds. 2 MTP and 8 is 8/5 & 6 is 2/1…Hard Pass… Show bets on the 99/1’s? Nah just kiddin
__________________
"Regarding FPS numbers and how to calculate how far behind they are honestly I do NOT know. I never was one of "those guys" man." RichieP |
03-31-2018, 07:06 PM | #8 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Corollary of Murphy's Law
It's a corollary of Murphy's Law that if you bet a horse to Win and Place, he'll run third.
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03-31-2018, 07:26 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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If you think this race was impressive check out the UAE Derby post.
Mitch44 |
04-01-2018, 11:45 AM | #10 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Chart
Congrats to the connections of Audible
You have a real good looking contender for the Kentucky Derby also a shout out to the place horse #7 Lightly raced and a big time 3rd fraction |
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