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Old 10-01-2011, 06:47 PM   #1
RichieP
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Sunday 10/2 at Parx - TM104 Race Class

Here is tomorrow's 7th from "Parx" going 6f on the dirt. Very best of luck/skill matching em up!!
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Old 10-01-2011, 06:49 PM   #2
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Old 10-02-2011, 08:26 AM   #3
RichieP
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My contenders/ Power Lines based on the #2 NOT being scratched.

IMO there are several runners that can not WIN when facing a 21.4 or 22.0 first fraction. Lets see what shakes and very best of luck/skill to ALL
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Old 10-02-2011, 12:30 PM   #4
SilentRun
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Parx R7 10/2

Hello Richie,

Just looking at the PP for #4 I can see that this horse is strong early.
The other speedballs are the 2 and the 8.

Using the Quirin Speed points: The 2 & 4 both have 7 QSP.
The 8 has 6 QSP. The results of RDSS & NP both favor the 4 & 8 over the 2.

Therefore my 2 top picks are the 4 & 8 for win.

But I would consider the 2-4-8 for an exacta box.

Ernie

Last edited by SilentRun; 10-02-2011 at 12:35 PM.
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Old 10-02-2011, 01:40 PM   #5
Bill Lyster
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Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
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Appears to be lots of contention on the front end;

1 P
2 E/P
3 P
4 E CAN RUN 22-45 OFF LINE 3
5 E RAN 22.1-45.5 IN SLOP AND NOTHING FASTER ON DRY TRACKS
6 E/P HAS FOUGHT FOR LEAD AND WON OFF SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE
7 S
8 P

I dont know much about the PARX class structure, but it looks like NW1X equates to something lower than claiming 25.

1
2 competitive at C25 and in SA 12.5 with two wins
3 Competitive at C22 (or maybe it was C25)
4 beat SA25 then lost 3 this level; could not keep up in OC 16
5 Suspect that Mth NW!X races are tougher; horse has been winning several at SA12.5
6 beat C16 at Mth and Sar
7
8 has one good race this level two back

Using Candy Heart from races 3 and 4, combining those lines little

Pace 22 - 45
1 scratched
2 won on lead in 110.3, does not need open lengths to win; also won from 2nd
3 only races usuable in slop; used line 5, won in 111
4 Fought on this pace in line 3; finished 3rd 2.3 back of 110.9
5 3 w-w wins at slower paces
6 fought for lead and won against slower paces
7 scratched
8 Use race 2, pressing from 4th to lose 109.4 by .50 length

Race is OTE with 4 on lead, leaves 8-3
8 runs 4-3-1
3 runs 5-2-2

8 to win and exacta with 2 and 3

Good luck


Bill
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Old 10-02-2011, 02:27 PM   #6
PeteC
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Getting to this late, but I will go with the 5 and 8...
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Old 10-02-2011, 03:03 PM   #7
SilentRun
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Revision

8-3-4 exacta box , Still BTW 4 & 8

Ernie
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Old 10-02-2011, 04:12 PM   #8
RichieP
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Ernie hits the ebox (Bill L has the winner as his "Other" win contender)and the first fractrion goes even a bit quicker than projected with the 2 and 4 dueling and both being consumed by the winning #3 who sat a great trip and blew up the inside around the far turn.

Thanx to ALL who jumped in
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Old 10-02-2011, 05:15 PM   #9
For The Lead
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two different looks

Welcome to “The Post Race Show!”

Just kidding. Before I go any further, I just want everyone to understand that my purpose here is not to pick the winner after the race. I don’t use RDSS and I don’t use the ENERGY program that you see here. I use my own software and a database and that really doesn’t allow for me to contribute to the site. In a recent PM another member and I had a conversation about how this old ENERGY program is used and I told them just the way it says to use it right out of the old pace line manual in the library. In those days you bought the racing form, handicapped the race and picked a line for each horse you saw as a contender. Then you turned on your computer and entered the lines you picked. That’s it. Today it is so different. So I decided to dust off the old dos version of ENERGY, write a little something about each horse and why to pick a line, or not, and the reasoning for the line that was picked. It is nothing more than a discussion, and hopefully, a learning experience.

Even more recently, another member sent me a PM and asked about how I used the various adjustments that are available in ENERGY. Again, I told him just what Doc would have said. If you don’t KNOW how to make adjustments, don’t make any! That means the “automatic adjustment” is the right adjustment for most people. Also, since I was asked about it, I have decided to make two posts on this race. The first will be just the way I did it last week and yesterday. In the second post, all the horses and lines will be the same, with just one exception, I used my own lines rather than the ones here. They have adjustments as I made them. This is not to say that my adjustments are better. I made my own adjustments and use them every day. My adjustments work for me, and as I told another member recently, “do what works best for YOU. Only YOU have to live with the results.”
Ok, let’s get on with it.

First are the race conditions. It’s much easier when you are doing a Graded Stakes Race. The race is either for Grade I, Grade II or Grade III, so it is straight forward, but when you get to the lower levels of racing the job gets a little harder than that.

This race is a NW1X, which means non-winners of a race other than maiden or claiming. More recently this condition also includes other than State Bred or Starter Allowance, since there are more of these type races than ever. In this race the condition also includes those horses than have never won 2 races lifetime. I certainly wouldn’t be interested in those horses. When I see this condition, the first thing I look for are the horses with a lot of races and still only one win. I look for them because I am going to eliminate them. If it took the horse many races to break its’ maiden and then moved to this condition and can’t beat it after several attempts, it probably isn’t going to beat it today either. What I am interested in are the horses that have multiple wins, primarily if those wins are in claiming races, or Starter Allowances races. Those horses that have only been able to beat State Breds are beating lesser horses than in an “open” race like today. Now understand, some of these NW1X races are strictly for State Breds, so you have to read the conditions.

#1 – scratched
#2 – Candy Heart, I’ll give the horse an excuse for its’ last race at PEN. In the race two back it beat a starter allowance field for horse that have started for $12,500 and have never won a race other than maiden or claiming. Not as good as today, but the horse has 4 wins lifetime, so I’ll put it in off of that line.

#3 – Fiscal Stimulus, 2 wins and a hard horse to find a line for. It has a lot of turf races and the two most recent dirt races were on off tracks, so there isn’t much choice. It beat a starter allowance fiel at BEL for horses that have started for a claiming price of $50k with a NW1X condition. That’s better than the #2 horse. Since its’ two most recent races on dirt are both on off tracks, I’ll take the most recent, line 3.

#4 – Crown the Chief, definitely as early horse and has 3 wins. Notice the only win showing is in a starter allowance race with a NW3L condition. Not real impressive, but it has speed and I’ll put it in off of line 2.

#5 – Change We Need, 4 wins in 8 races. I’m not going back to lines a year old, so the second race back will be the line, even though it is on an off track. I could have gone4 back to line 4, but I’ll take the most recent race.

#6 – My Man Marty, came off a long layoff to win a couple of claiming races showing good early speed in both. Today’s competition should be more in line with the NW1X at MTH in its’ last race where it made the lead at the first call. Some people might go back to the win 2 back, but I’m going to put it in off the last line. If the speed from that race isn’t sufficient to match the other early horses in this race, it probably isn’t going to win anyway.

#7 – scratched

#8 – Cat Loves This, this horse has 4 wins and I’ll excuse the last race on an off track. It was able to beat a starter allowance field for horses that have started for a claiming price of #12.5k with a NW1X condition 3 back. I’ll put it in off the race 2 back which was virtually the same condition as today where it performed well, running second.

Ok, there are the horses and the lines. The following are the screen shots from ENERGY.
You will see that the program chooses “early”, so the top two ranked horses under the “EP” column would be the play.

In the next post you will see the same horses and same lines. The difference is that I used my adjusted lines. In both cases I used the “automatic adjustment” in the ENERGY program. In this post you will see that the program selects "Presser" as the horses to bet. So you would look for the top two ranked horses under the “PR” column.

The program did not get the winner in the first post, but did get the winner in the second post.
In the first post, the program picked the #4 and #8 horses.
In the second post, the program picked the #3 and #8 horses.
You will see that the combination of these gets the win, place and show horses. No value, but the results were good.

Hope this is of help to everyone.
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Old 10-02-2011, 05:19 PM   #10
For The Lead
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two different looks, con't

here is the second set of screen shots
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