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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 02-12-2018, 10:18 PM   #11
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raceman5 View Post
would you bet a horse that was next to last on all the readouts on rx 3.


Bob
Im guessing Bill bet Early/counter early. #1 was counter early but 3/5. #3 offered a better price and it's CPR was over #1's.
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Old 02-12-2018, 10:19 PM   #12
Jeebs
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And CONGRATS Bill!
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Old 02-12-2018, 11:36 PM   #13
Bill V.
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Readouts and match up

Quote:
Why
would you bet a horse that was next to last on all the readouts on rx 3.


Bob
Jeebs wrote:

Quote:
Im guessing Bill bet Early/counter early. #1 was counter early but 3/5. #3 offered a better price and it's CPR was over #1's.
Hello Bob and Tim

Bob, Tim (Jeebs) has it exactly. The 7 was in the top 2 RX3 but all the early horses on the RX3 readout were in a tight group. The VDC percentages readout from the TPR screen shows how tight VDC was in this race.

I took the best early, which I thought would be the 7. For other than early
I went with the 3 over the 1. I based this on the fact that the 3 had better
3rd fraction type readouts than the 1 and was # 2 on powerline. and was top 2 on CR+

I use phase 1 so I looked at that screen, Here also I saw all the horses were
within 5 points on TPR ( CPR)
When I placed my bet the 1 was 3/5. The 3 was 5/1. So that choice
was supported along with the 3 having better 3rd fraction readouts than the 1.

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Old 02-12-2018, 11:38 PM   #14
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Thanks

Thank you Mitch and Jeebs

Good question Bob

Good Skill

Bill
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Old 02-13-2018, 07:32 AM   #15
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I concur with your analysis Bill and made a post similar to your conclusion sometime back. Least deceleration won this race. In a FTL recent post I said members should look at the percentages of CR or CR+ for possible contenders along with a few other things in RDSS to get higher than 64% in the top 4 . Nice analysis and bet Bill, congratulations.
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Old 02-13-2018, 09:58 AM   #16
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Nice job Bill. Brings us back to Docs missive it's not the programs top 2 but your top 2 that should be bet. I move horses up and down in tier level ranks all the time based not only on odds but several other factors that I've found work very well for me. Sometimes I get burned but like in this case the price justified the risk.
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Old 02-13-2018, 10:18 AM   #17
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Thank

You Mr. bill


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Old 02-13-2018, 12:06 PM   #18
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I also move horses up & down depending on my analysis , not only of several screens but also proved techniques learned over many years from experience, record keeping & experimentation.


LT1 and I both would have had the # 3 as a contender and given it a pace line.
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