Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-10-2016, 06:59 AM   #21
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Finding the fucrum POR

This is a video I made for the RDSS2 forum in 2013. In this video I use the same fulcrum guidelines, I look for the fastest 2nd call POR from the last line only.
But rather than look at the adjusted EPR rating on the TPR screen,
I use the raw pace of race fractions

Here is the video
Fulcrum.mp4

Last edited by Bill V.; 03-10-2016 at 07:02 AM.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2016, 03:28 PM   #22
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Yes Bill post one ,your choice. Then many more can get involved. The feedback should be good and diverse.
Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-2016, 05:21 PM   #23
mick
Abiding Student
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
Thumbs up Thanks, Bill.

Bill - this is a favorite thread. It's such a rich vein of ore to mine. You put a lot of work in it and I wanted you to know it's appreciated.

mick
__________________
mick

Illustrated Glossary
mick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2016, 02:22 PM   #24
Tim Y
turf historian
 
Tim Y's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
Horses running in the fastest paced races have endured the greatest pace pressures. USE THAT as your guide:If others show faltering from that pace of race, they will not be a choice today.

Use SEVERAl lines to find the comparisons, don't get stuck in sample error. The better horses REPEAT their efforts and there-by can be counted on more readily.
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

Last edited by Tim Y; 08-16-2016 at 02:24 PM.
Tim Y is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2016, 02:34 PM   #25
Tim Y
turf historian
 
Tim Y's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
SAMPLE ERROR: drawing an incorrect conclusion from too small a data set. Or, the plague of small numbers. That is a denigrating expression of Bernoulli's theory of LARGE NUMBERS, (actually used in insurance actuarials to predict probably of death by age and lifestyle) aka the MORE examples one investigates, the closer those observations are to the reality of the situation.

Read The Drunkard's Walk, a great primer on the foibles of statistical evaluation .....it is eye opening.

Imagine I am from Mars and want to invade Earth. The rational way to scout the target would be to send MULTIPLE probes or groups, all around the planet, and multiple times of the year, to get an idea what they were going to encounter.

I am a dummy so I send ONE expedition and it happens to land in a nice meadow in June in rural Minnesota where I see open land and small animals.

Between these two groups, WHICH would you say probably had the better reconnaissance? and which WILL suffer the effects of Sample Error.
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."
Tim Y is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2016, 09:08 AM   #26
mick
Abiding Student
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
The Drunkard's Walk

Thank, Tim. I always appreciate a recommendation on a good book. I've ordered it from our local library. And thanks again for the press box tour. It was special.

mick
__________________
mick

Illustrated Glossary
mick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-28-2016, 09:47 PM   #27
tom
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 644
Follow Up #16, pages 3-4, Doc talks about the procedural template for the trackside clinics they were doing at the time.

Also, on page 34, an article that goes into greater depth.
Attached Images
 
tom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2016, 08:26 PM   #28
Tim Y
turf historian
 
Tim Y's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
This is a concept that is more theoretical than real.

One needs to find COMMONALITY of pace of race challenges for ir is EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL that any ONE pace line will have all the aspects (early, middle and late) that will serve as a yardstick for all in the race.

The more I study this (and since 1986 I have looked a more than a few contests) I came to a conclusion: all horses have a RANGE of pace of races TO WHICH they can contend. What we call "cheap" animals have the narrowest range of challenge response, all the way up to the stakes winners who have the widest (to give truth to the old saying that CLASS laughs at pace).

Find a few pace lines that are real challenges at this level: put them in the program and find the PACE OF RACES that are the toughest of those listed. You start there. Line up the other horses in the race (ALWAYS LOOK AT ALL OF THEM INITIALLY), see how they match up.

the idea of ONE fulcrum just is not a long range practical standard to attempt to discover. A range is about as close as you can find.
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."
Tim Y is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2018, 08:56 PM   #29
Lefty
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 340
I know this thread is a few yrs old but I'd like to chime in about the hefts of Doc's work.

actually,
doc said two members of Pirco stole his mailing list. Not long after, I got a flyer with both Pizzolla's and Schmidt's names on it, so not hard to figure out who Doc was talking about,
Lefty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2018, 12:33 AM   #30
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Lefty

I wanted to do a follow up race, using the fulcrum method.
I don't usually bet Woodbine till latter in the season.
Mitch posted his selections today in the selections forum, so I was following along.

Race 1 2 and 3 had no fulcrum horses .
Race 4 was a MC10 .I had a tandem race fulcrum with horses 1 , 2 and 9,

The POR fulcrum was a 87 but horse 3 will boost that POR up in this match up

Remember: The fulcrum is a very strong elimination tool.
Its a paceline selection aid.
The fulcrum horse places or shows a very high percentage
I look at the fulcrum as kind of like a mini dashboard of the match up.

Here is my work up of race 4

Name:  Entries.PNG
Views: 729
Size:  46.7 KB
Name:  H1.PNG
Views: 683
Size:  107.5 KB
Name:  Horse 2.PNG
Views: 657
Size:  111.7 KB
Name:  Horse 3.PNG
Views: 692
Size:  120.2 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Fulcrum Pace Query - 2014 Derby Stakes Prep Races DocSartinLearner RDSS2 / FAQ's 7 03-30-2014 06:30 PM
Finding the Fulcrum CaptDon100 Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 7 02-14-2014 03:39 PM
Setting the fulcrum POR Bill V. RDSS2 / FAQ's 11 02-12-2014 10:41 AM
Need Help Finding the Win Bet CaptDon100 Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 58 12-20-2013 09:06 AM
55% Solution Exacta/Quinella Profits - Finding the Place Horse Ted Craven Manuals 0 03-22-2010 03:31 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:41 PM.