Match Up ?

[Mitch44]

I received this PM which I thought may be interesting to the masses along with my reply.


Match up??

---

Hello again Galen!
Hope all is well for you and yours.
I know you and Ted told me not to go the way of the marchers and for the most part I have listened. But some ideas are pretty sound like giving esp to all horses.
So what parts of the match up process do you feel the so called marchers fail at??
Thanks again my friend.


My reply:


Yes ESP is sound but not the one that matchers use. They use the visual ESP which is just not accurate and are fooled by what the human eye sees. A horse that goes wire to wire may not be an E horse. It could very well be a SP etc. Horses tend to just do what they have to do. If not pressed on the lead they'll slow down and only do what they have to do. The % Med which is determined by a mathematical formula and is much more accurate as to how a horse truly runs. % Med ESP designations are a much more accurate depiction of how a horse truly runs.

Matchers can't match the power of the program itself. Such as being able to carry the match up into or to compute the 3rd Fraction. Essentially their just early speed handicappers. Everyone see's ES and the prices are low.

2nd they fail to adjust for track to track adjustments, sure you can win some races without adjustments but your going to lose far more. A must today, especially with weather changes, track maintenance, run up distances etc. Bradshaw explained at a seminar how he does this, rather simple but effective. In reading through the Match UP I don't recall seeing this. For me it would be pencil and paper time but Bradshaw did all this in his head and made these adjustments.

3rd they don't adjust to the track variant which changes from day to day, even more so with severe changes such as sloppy or muddy tracks. I suppose Bradshaw avoided these lines which made his results more accurate, I also refuse to use off track lines even when the track is sloppy etc. Believe it or not the track variant varies even on fast tracks. That's right!! There are different degrees of fast and a good variant is a must.

Their essentially speed handicappers that look for horses that can go wire to wire , many horses decelerate in the 3rd FR and fail to win, especially early speed types.

Bradshaw taught the match up to those that could grasp it, and only to those that asked, he gave them only what they could handle with it. So everyone was taught different based on their capabilities and limitations. There's no sense teaching rocket science to a moron when they can only handle ABC's and 2 + 2 equals 4. Sartin had a very high IQ and he couldn't do it as well as Bradshaw and he taught it to Bradshaw. Yes it wasn't originated by Bradshaw but Bradshaw took it to a level that Sartin couldn't accomplish without the use of the computer.

Sartin use to caution users also about carrying the match up into the 3rd FR because the 2 for 1 beaten length and more like 3 to 1 for routes is just not accurate. The reason is every horse decelerates at a different rate therefore there is not a nice little 2 for 1 beaten length rule that works. Its nothing more than an inaccurate ball park guesstimate. And their deceleration is also effective by the match up or Early pace of the race which varies from race to race therefore they don't decelerate the same in each race which makes it all even more difficult.

A person needs to know their capabilities and limitations to be successful, unless you have a genius I.Q. and think you know as much about this stuff as Sartin and Bradshaw than forget about it. Even Sartin use to say in reference to Bradshaw, "Unless your from Oklahoma and wear a cowboy hat for get about it." Bradshaw is the exception not the rule.

Bottom line is if you can't make RDSS work your not going to make the Match Up work. The Match UP is within the program and in the program's best readouts. Let the RDSS program do the heavy lifting.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Great response Mitch. I should be noted that the Doc did go away from the visual matchup deferring instead to the compounded ratings of the computer programs.
Tim

[The Pook]

I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the Matchup. It works quite well. It works quite well using Visual ESP.

I don’t possess any special high degree of IQ but decided a few years ago to try to progress through the levels of the Matchup as taught in the forum on this site, from the 5 steps to Voodoo.

I do most of what is explained in the forum. I do visual ESP. I use raw times but also adjusted times as Voodoo. I use tandems when they help. I use BPP and Pl for contenders. I never use just one pace line and use all the pacelines I need. I keep no models and know nothing of trainers or jockeys. I bet only when I figure one or two horses have an advantage. I have no minimum odds. I have no maximum odds.

Matchers aren’t just looking for wire to wires. They also need OTE’s. Wherever an advantage might pay.

I get my share of low odds horses. I get my share of high odds horses that pure Sartinistas would never see. And that is the crux of it. You get your own particular set of results to make what you do, work.

I do a modern version of it with much help from RDSS. If you put in the time, it works. Maybe not the same as decades ago but it works. As Richie P said somewhere else on here lately, ones interpretation of it is subjective. I have honed my own interpretation and would not share exact specifics because I prefer to preserve profit.

The parts are all here. There is no need to fail at it when you put all the parts together..

Pook

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by The Pook

I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the Matchup. It works quite well. It works quite well using Visual ESP.



Matchers aren’t just looking for wire to wires.



Pook

Pook,

and matchers shouldn't just look for Lone Earlys. I agree.

We should also be looking for cheap/outclassed/phony Earlys who figure to be less than 9/2.

When you're real good at that.........those are the races worth digging into more.

[shoeless]

Good response Pook

[Mitch44]

Matchers are entitled to their own opinions. I was asked and gave my best advice and would not recommend it. I evenly occasionally use in certain situations but would never use it as a stand alone verses other concepts.


I'm well aware of my capabilities and limitations and stay within bounds of that. I would not recommend it. I concur with Sartin on his advice who was much more intelligent than me. Whenever he spoke I listened.


The concepts of Sartin are a difficult hurtle to overcome let alone the Match UP. Most fail even after years, it took me many years to conceptualize or understand the principles of Sartin or get it.

I would say that Cigar is a very good Matcher and one I would say is the exception.


Then again there are some who like to chime in that I doubt can even match up a pair of socks.


Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Pook I believe your; "modern version" has increased your capability in the last year or so. This was evidenced by your good showing in the contest. Glad to see you tweaked it so that your better able to adapt and overcome. Best of luck in the future.


Mitch44

[cigar]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Matchers are entitled to their own opinions. I was asked and gave my best advice and would not recommend it. I evenly occasionally use in certain situations but would never use it as a stand alone verses other concepts.


I'm well aware of my capabilities and limitations and stay within bounds of that. I would not recommend it. I concur with Sartin on his advice who was much more intelligent than me. Whenever he spoke I listened.


The concepts of Sartin are a difficult hurtle to overcome let alone the Match UP. Most fail even after years, it took me many years to conceptualize or understand the principles of Sartin or get it.

I would say that Cigar is a very good Matcher and one I would say is the exception.


Then again there are some who like to chime in that I doubt can even match up a pair of socks.


Mitch44

I was reading your post and found it hilarious, not for the obvious reason. "I doubt can even match up a pair of socks".

l left the house this morning in rush and grab a pair of socks not checking if they match. See pic - LOL.

Thank you for the complement, I am a matcher who also incorporate RDSS readouts into my process. Once you find your comfort level in whatever process you use, stick with it. Like Pook, I do not keep records.

Cigar

[Mitch44]

Vish: I'm MAO. Truly a great photo. Hope your well up there in Canada and cashing tickets. BTW at least you got the shoes on correct. Ha ha ha


Mitch44

[raceman5]

Read the 2 words that cigar mentioned. Comfort level. My personal comfort levels with the match up are.

1. Tandem Races.
2. OTE Races.
3. Lone Sprinter in a race going long for the first time that meets the Hat's Parameters in the hat file.
4. The speed of the speed.

Bob