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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 07-31-2021, 01:08 AM   #11
ranchwest
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Originally Posted by ranchwest View Post
I have not looked at the other responses yet, but I look forward to reading.

My choices:

#1, line 2
#3, line 1
#6, line 1
#8, line 2

Thanks for doing this.
After reviewing the input above, I like line 4 of #1.
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Old 07-31-2021, 09:45 AM   #12
Mitch44
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No it doesn't concern me Ranch. I don't have the % Med and would have to figure them by hand. From a visual don't concern me.

The # 6 horse has steadily improved since adding Blinkers and in L1 appears to have changed it running style. Connections seem to have finally figured this one out. Seems in a new cycle and may keep on improving.

The # 9 appears to be very consistent regardless of pace he runs his race. His average speed rating is as good as many in here best SR, therefore he could win this on consistency alone. His best race came off a layoff and has recently been freshened and also been Gelded since last race. Only question is his ability on turf, however he has won on an off track so he can adapt and doesn't need a specific track type.

# 10 has been working steady for return and has run well in past against faster paces. Trainer is good off long layoffs and decent on turf. Breeding suggest he'll like turf. This horse obviously had some type of problem but a long enough layoff to fix whatever it was. With the rise in class off the layoff and having to prove turf this one will just have to beat me at 6-1, however his odds should rise based on PP's. He could win at a very nice price.

#1 Appears to be main threat, Been freshened and improved with B added. Won against slow pace in last and could run back to top figure. I would expect him to be closer to pace in this one.

Mitch44
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Old 07-31-2021, 10:02 AM   #13
Mitch44
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I agree with Bill Lister in reference to 7.5 F races on turf, especially if run at GP. They are notorious for inconsistent and crazy run up distances. Even on the same day. One may have a run up dis. of 10 feet and another a run up dis. of 210 feet. It greatly distorts time which is extremely important to a Pace Handicapper. I've written about this before.

They are not to be trusted if using Bris PP for Pace etc. and I refuse to use them when handicapping from Bris alone. However they can be used in RDSS because TrackMaster accounts for all run up distances regardless of track and surface. They are the only one, I know of that does adjust for Run Up distances.

The lines I picked were from RDSS PP's that were posted, therefore I wouldn't have a problem using them as they have been adjusted for run up distances. Trust the program.

Their fine to use in RDSS and TrackMaster products but never use them in any other product. That said, it still doesn't mean a horse that can run 7.5 F can get the distance of 8.5 F because of deceleration, Match Up and distance limitations.

Mitch44
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Old 07-31-2021, 10:55 AM   #14
ranchwest
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Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
No it doesn't concern me Ranch. I don't have the % Med and would have to figure them by hand. From a visual don't concern me.

The # 6 horse has steadily improved since adding Blinkers and in L1 appears to have changed it running style. Connections seem to have finally figured this one out. Seems in a new cycle and may keep on improving.

The # 9 appears to be very consistent regardless of pace he runs his race. His average speed rating is as good as many in here best SR, therefore he could win this on consistency alone. His best race came off a layoff and has recently been freshened and also been Gelded since last race. Only question is his ability on turf, however he has won on an off track so he can adapt and doesn't need a specific track type.

# 10 has been working steady for return and has run well in past against faster paces. Trainer is good off long layoffs and decent on turf. Breeding suggest he'll like turf. This horse obviously had some type of problem but a long enough layoff to fix whatever it was. With the rise in class off the layoff and having to prove turf this one will just have to beat me at 6-1, however his odds should rise based on PP's. He could win at a very nice price.

#1 Appears to be main threat, Been freshened and improved with B added. Won against slow pace in last and could run back to top figure. I would expect him to be closer to pace in this one.

Mitch44
Thanks for your comments. I appreciate it.
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Old 07-31-2021, 12:21 PM   #15
buffaloxp
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after 4 scratches, i try all the line your provide,the RDSS program come up HORSE 7,1,5,3
on top 4, i will go with 7 for wp and 7 with 1,3,5 for Qu, thanks for all reply

raymond
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Old 07-31-2021, 12:51 PM   #16
Bill Lyster
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Quote:
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horse

i changed line selection on the 6 because line 1 was too sustained from its normal energy expenditure. I ended up liking the 1 and 10. The 10 never on turf has been running in better races and appears to come off a layoff in good form, based on one significant lo. Appears to be the speed here in a race without a clear leader. Has never pressed and made up ground so i would classify as an e type. My exacta is a box 1x10, hoping for longer odds on the 10.

Good luck to all.


1, line 4, don't trust 7.5t lines, especially vs horses who have lines at or near todays distance on the turf. If all you have is 7.5t lines they might be overstating the potential vs the rest of the field.

3, line 1

6, line 1

8, line 5

all of these selections are provided that each line is within the horses normal energy distribution range. Otherwise look again.

Once you see what the range of median energys are for these four horses, check to see how close some of the first time turfers run on dirt. They can be contenders if their median energy and total energy are close to the veteran turf horses. Does not happen too often though, but you gotta check.
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Old 07-31-2021, 03:59 PM   #17
Bill Lyster
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Double bet with 6 in race 8 to the 1 and 5 in the 9th. Still looking at odds on the 10
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Old 07-31-2021, 04:13 PM   #18
ranchwest
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My selection is 7.
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Old 07-31-2021, 04:41 PM   #19
ranchwest
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Double bet with 6 in race 8 to the 1 and 5 in the 9th. Still looking at odds on the 10
Very nice, Bill!
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Old 07-31-2021, 05:07 PM   #20
Mitch44
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Nice DD Bill, congrats.

Mitch44
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