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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-10-2021, 03:37 PM   #11
Lt1
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I agree with the choice of L2 for the #1. It's recent and it's the best of the last 3. Remember we are only talking paceline selection at this time. There are handicapping factors that will deal with the horses last line but they are different from PL selection.
Tim
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Old 08-11-2021, 11:22 AM   #12
ranchwest
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1: L2
2: L3
3: L3
4: L3
5: L3
6: L3
7: L1
8: L3
9: L2
10: L1
11: L1
12: L1

I show lines for the 2 MTO horses strictly as an exercise. Obviously it makes no sense to select a turf line for an MTO horse.

Last edited by ranchwest; 08-11-2021 at 11:26 AM.
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Old 08-11-2021, 12:38 PM   #13
Mitch44
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Scratches:

The 5-6 & 7 have scratched.

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Old 08-11-2021, 01:23 PM   #14
buffaloxp
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my win contenders is 2,4,9,11,12
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Old 08-11-2021, 01:26 PM   #15
buffaloxp
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my bet is win=2,12 EX 2,12w2,4,9,11,12

Good luck
raymond
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Old 08-11-2021, 02:04 PM   #16
Bill Lyster
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My picks are 4-9-11.

Of the 14 races in my model at this distance 13 have been top 4 POR horses and 12 of the 14 have been top EPR and TPR.

Win horses are 4 and 9. Place horses are the 11 and 12
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Old 08-11-2021, 02:32 PM   #17
Mitch44
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My contender's are:
2-4-10-11-12

My final picks are:
10-11-2

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Old 08-11-2021, 02:51 PM   #18
rdiam
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My pacelines:

1 -- try Line 2 (june 25) and Line 3 (june 12), second time Lasix, stretching out, but lowest ranked jockey and trainer in field

2 -- try Line 1 (july 17) and Line 3 (may 28): positive switch to Saez, stretching out, no works since raced 25 days ago

3 -- Line 1 (july 16): strong final fraction, Jose Ortiz tops in field, but speed rating slower than others

4 -- Line 1 (june 25): stretching out, weak first fraction

5 -- SCRATCHED

6 -- SCRATCHED

7 -- SCRATCHED

8 -- Line 1 (may 28): top trainer in field, trainer/jockey combo hot, stretching out, speed rating slower than others

9 -- Try Line 1 (july 5) and Line 2 (may 20):

10 -- Line 1 (june 25): stretching out, positive jock switch to Santana, but first time on grass, poor grass pedigree, but top speed rating (on dirt) in race

11 -- Line 1 (june 26): lightly raced, second time lasix, excellent workout pattern, strong final fraction, but stretching out, weak first fraction, trainer is cold

12 -- Line 1 (june 5): positive jock switch to Gaffalione, should get pressing trip, but stretching out

Matchup: 1 out early, pressed by 8, with 4,9,10,12 coming on midrace, and 3,11 closing

Betting strategy: win bets 9,10, ex 4/10,11,12, ex 11/1,2,3,4,10,12...worried about the 12, but can't bet them all...(my rule of thumb is no more than half the field as win contenders, so max four win contenders in nine horse field)

Good luck

Richard

Last edited by rdiam; 08-11-2021 at 03:00 PM.
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Old 08-11-2021, 04:13 PM   #19
ranchwest
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best contenders: 1,2,11
secondary contenders: 4,9,12
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Old 08-11-2021, 04:24 PM   #20
Bill Lyster
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
My picks are 4-9-11.

Of the 14 races in my model at this distance 13 have been top 4 POR horses and 12 of the 14 have been top EPR and TPR.

Win horses are 4 and 9. Place horses are the 11 and 12
I mis-stated the model info. It was for the much more often run distance of 8.5 f on the turf, there being only 2, 9F turf races in my model. however, there is strength in these numbers at almost every distance. At 8 furlongs on the turf 13/15 winners came from the top 3 POR horses.

So no change in my choices for this race.
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