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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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08-10-2021, 03:37 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
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I agree with the choice of L2 for the #1. It's recent and it's the best of the last 3. Remember we are only talking paceline selection at this time. There are handicapping factors that will deal with the horses last line but they are different from PL selection.
Tim
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Trust but verify |
08-11-2021, 11:22 AM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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1: L2
2: L3 3: L3 4: L3 5: L3 6: L3 7: L1 8: L3 9: L2 10: L1 11: L1 12: L1 I show lines for the 2 MTO horses strictly as an exercise. Obviously it makes no sense to select a turf line for an MTO horse. Last edited by ranchwest; 08-11-2021 at 11:26 AM. |
08-11-2021, 12:38 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Scratches:
The 5-6 & 7 have scratched. Mitch44 |
08-11-2021, 01:23 PM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 778
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my win contenders is 2,4,9,11,12
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08-11-2021, 01:26 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 778
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my bet is win=2,12 EX 2,12w2,4,9,11,12
Good luck raymond |
08-11-2021, 02:04 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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My picks are 4-9-11.
Of the 14 races in my model at this distance 13 have been top 4 POR horses and 12 of the 14 have been top EPR and TPR. Win horses are 4 and 9. Place horses are the 11 and 12 |
08-11-2021, 02:32 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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My contender's are:
2-4-10-11-12 My final picks are: 10-11-2 Mitch44 |
08-11-2021, 02:51 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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My pacelines:
1 -- try Line 2 (june 25) and Line 3 (june 12), second time Lasix, stretching out, but lowest ranked jockey and trainer in field 2 -- try Line 1 (july 17) and Line 3 (may 28): positive switch to Saez, stretching out, no works since raced 25 days ago 3 -- Line 1 (july 16): strong final fraction, Jose Ortiz tops in field, but speed rating slower than others 4 -- Line 1 (june 25): stretching out, weak first fraction 5 -- SCRATCHED 6 -- SCRATCHED 7 -- SCRATCHED 8 -- Line 1 (may 28): top trainer in field, trainer/jockey combo hot, stretching out, speed rating slower than others 9 -- Try Line 1 (july 5) and Line 2 (may 20): 10 -- Line 1 (june 25): stretching out, positive jock switch to Santana, but first time on grass, poor grass pedigree, but top speed rating (on dirt) in race 11 -- Line 1 (june 26): lightly raced, second time lasix, excellent workout pattern, strong final fraction, but stretching out, weak first fraction, trainer is cold 12 -- Line 1 (june 5): positive jock switch to Gaffalione, should get pressing trip, but stretching out Matchup: 1 out early, pressed by 8, with 4,9,10,12 coming on midrace, and 3,11 closing Betting strategy: win bets 9,10, ex 4/10,11,12, ex 11/1,2,3,4,10,12...worried about the 12, but can't bet them all...(my rule of thumb is no more than half the field as win contenders, so max four win contenders in nine horse field) Good luck Richard Last edited by rdiam; 08-11-2021 at 03:00 PM. |
08-11-2021, 04:13 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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best contenders: 1,2,11
secondary contenders: 4,9,12 |
08-11-2021, 04:24 PM | #20 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Quote:
So no change in my choices for this race. |
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