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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 08-17-2021, 03:18 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Saratoga Factor Information thru 8/7

Starts on day 1, does not cover races won by FTS or when more than two FTS or foreign starters in their first outing. There were a couple of days without data because I did not assemble all races. it started out as being a study of the four main factors, but ended up with most of the factors on the RX screen but not CR+, or New pace info. I forgot to show the final contender's TE ranking info and that could be a mistake. I like to look at the TE from POR top horses and compare it to my contenders, especially when making the final cuts to four or three. But just as interesting is a horse from say the #5 POR with only a 4 ranking in the contender mix – usually an easy elimination for win.

Finally, based on my handicapping and my SEGMENTS screen info I recorded the Lengths Back at 2nd call, so on the first worksheet that has all the races, 85% win within 4.5 L at 2nd call; also listed is wins from less than 2.6 L back.

All of the worksheets have the same info, but sorted differently. the 2nd sheet is by distance and distances that have top 3 in all races are highlighted in yellow; those with 2 or 3 outside the top three are in light green. I am not finished playing with this info, however.
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File Type: xlsx SARATOGA RDSS FACTOR STUDY.xlsx (68.4 KB, 792 views)
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Old 08-17-2021, 04:56 PM   #2
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Many years ago Tom Brohamer used 5 lengths behind for the Second Call, its a great down and dirty approximation. It can be improved on with a current track profile which would eliminate more horses and tighten up the parameters.

Generally looking at your data and based on my research you did an excellent job on this.

I can gather by the data that your Pace Line selection is very good. Also whatever setting your using is getting great results.

If you use this data I believe your getting the maximum from the program and only need to have discipline in betting and money management for success.

For others you may not get the same results due to settings and the all important selection of Pace Lines and contenders, therefore they should do their own research and collect data to expose their weak areas.

Excellent work Bill, your hard work has given you the tools for success. CONGRATS!!!

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Old 08-17-2021, 06:03 PM   #3
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Thanks Mitch,

One thing I was surprised at was the LB at 2nd Call data and how much of it was a lot closer than what TIM, LT1, had produced, but having looked at my paceline choices it was clear that several were from lines where the horse was more than 4 L back and it was the internal adjustments in the program that made it come together so that, overall, 63% of winners were no more than 2.5 L back at the 2c call once the program adjusted for variants, etc.

For pacelines I try to find representative lines near zero track variant and no more than +/- 5, sometimes +/- 10. I think that above -15 fast tracks give too much advantage to horses with those lines (unless all the contenders have representative lines at that amount), so as a consequence my lines may go a lot deeper in the PPs than others to find those lines, BUT, the lines I choose are within the horse's normal/average running line based on its TPR style. Also, no off tracks on dirt, but firm and good on turf are okay, for me.
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Old 08-17-2021, 06:08 PM   #4
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Math Wizards invited!!!

One thing I was hoping by publishing this info was to get someone with a higher degree of math background to possibly distill this information further, through the use of algorithms or other math voodoo to create another factor that might be better than we already have.

ALL MATH WIZARDS DON'T NEED TO APPLY, JUST DIG IN!!!

Regards,
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Old 08-17-2021, 07:18 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
One thing I was hoping by publishing this info was to get someone with a higher degree of math background to possibly distill this information further, through the use of algorithms or other math voodoo to create another factor that might be better than we already have.

ALL MATH WIZARDS DON'T NEED TO APPLY, JUST DIG IN!!!

Regards,
Bill,
Did you have all runners as win contenders when you put each race through
the RDSS analysis?

Thanks, Mike
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Old 08-17-2021, 07:35 PM   #6
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I gave each horse a line consistent with its history as close to the race distance as possible, then during analysis I eliminated down to those horses with the four main factors with top 5 ratings.

Be careful with horses that fail to hit the top 5 in BPP. If you hover your mouse over the BPP column for the #5 horse, check out how close that is only missing a top 5 rank in BPP. RDSS rarely, if ever shows ties in BPP, so a 6th ranked BPP could only be 0.1 of a point below #5 and might be a real contender if it ranks top 5 or better in the other main factor categories.

By my count there were 23 races out of the 144 studied that were missing one or more of the four main factors ranked 5 or better, or 121/144 = 84% of all WINNERS had all four of the main factors in the top FIVE ranks, irrespective of distance.

You can play with each distance to see where the anomalies exist.
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Old 08-17-2021, 07:49 PM   #7
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thank you Bill

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Old 08-17-2021, 08:04 PM   #8
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Just a further note on the four main factors:

Vdc depends on the line you choose. AND, the rankings often are tied, so even if a horse is ranked top 5 there may be more than 5 horses ranked in the top 5. So be careful of ties in Vdc.

Csr can be changed if any of the races had an excuse - and then a really low total energy. But remember if originally a horse you like is not a top 5 Csr its an indication that there may be a problem, forgivable or not, with that horse. In one major instance if todays race is 9f or less, any horse coming from a marathon race (10f and up) will have a very low CSR. If it has several long races in a row, the CSR will not accurately reflect that horses rank. Look for verification in the other factors before discarding.

PL and BPP cannot be changed and there are rarely ties, so usually you will only see 5 horses listed in the top 5 ranks. But when you look at the PPs for each horse you will see at the top the actual PL value and sometimes, the 5 horse will have a 15 PL and then one or two other horses not ranked in the top 5 will also have a PL of 15. Before you eliminate these types, make sure there are other reasons in the array of rankings to eliminate these types of horses.
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Old 08-17-2021, 11:21 PM   #9
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Win odds

Another fact from this study was that winning horses whose post odds were 4/1 (which includes everything just short of 9/2) won 76.4% of the time and horses that went off between 9/2 and 9/1 won at 16% of all races, leaving just a little over 7.63% of all wins at over 9/1 - a 1 in 13 chance with odds over 9/1. Think about that when you look at your contender odds! Granted its only 144 races thru 8/7!!??
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Old 08-18-2021, 08:43 AM   #10
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Well done Bill and thanks for sharing. You point out a very important fact about Profit Line ranks. According to Twin Spires when there are ties in PL odds the tie is broken by post position. Let's say the #3 and #5 both have PL odds of 15-1. By default the 3 would rank ahead of the 5 although closer examination may show the 5 is the stronger of the 2. Another thing to check is BPP ranks. You will find that sometimes a horse that has NEVER been on todays' surface will rank higher then those that have. You may want to[and I do] downgrade this horse when you make your final selections. Bottom line DON'T blindly accept any rankings. Do your due diligence.
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