Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-18-2021, 09:04 AM   #11
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
Rdss

Here is the $60,000 question Bill, after you get your top 5 how do u narrow it down to your top 2? After all, in today's racing, the av field is around 7-8 horses in a race on the dirt, unless it is a turf race.

Bob
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2021, 09:35 AM   #12
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Once you get below -15 or above +15 your out of what is a normal variant normal. Once I select all of my lines I then review the variants and create a new norm by seeing what the average is for my chosen lines. Then I see what is abnormal by that standard, if a horse is abnormal I try to seek another line.

Sometimes you can use another line and sometimes your just stuck with it, especially with young horses with limited data. Even if stuck with it, the line provides important information as to its preference to distance or surface. Like a FTS if its horrible I just
disregard it and consider it an UNK. Factor.

No matter what one uses there are flaws within in it. Even the best factors have flaws. Only being able to adjust one race for CSR is a flaw, false favorites effect CR+ and just using the last 3 lines are all examples of flaws. There are work arounds to most problems or flaws however most are on autopilot mode. Autopilot mode will have you crashing and burning on landings and takeoffs. Just not good for all situations or all races.

If there is a whole card of being a math wizard it lies in working smartly and figuring out solutions to problems. We encounter the same problems daily in handicapping such as stretch outs. Greater success comes from solving problems other can't handle.

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2021, 10:47 AM   #13
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Point well taken Mitch. I'm doing more of the same as I review the band of +'s and-'s in my contenders. I agree, there are times when you are stuck with a line, so I try to mentally adjust, giving nudges occasionally. I will be responding to LT1's latest with an idea that I have been kicking around, but have not formulated all that I want to say yet. As always, thanks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Once you get below -15 or above +15 your out of what is a normal variant normal. Once I select all of my lines I then review the variants and create a new norm by seeing what the average is for my chosen lines. Then I see what is abnormal by that standard, if a horse is abnormal I try to seek another line.

Sometimes you can use another line and sometimes your just stuck with it, especially with young horses with limited data. Even if stuck with it, the line provides important information as to its preference to distance or surface. Like a FTS if its horrible I just
disregard it and consider it an UNK. Factor.

No matter what one uses there are flaws within in it. Even the best factors have flaws. Only being able to adjust one race for CSR is a flaw, false favorites effect CR+ and just using the last 3 lines are all examples of flaws. There are work arounds to most problems or flaws however most are on autopilot mode. Autopilot mode will have you crashing and burning on landings and takeoffs. Just not good for all situations or all races.

If there is a whole card of being a math wizard it lies in working smartly and figuring out solutions to problems. We encounter the same problems daily in handicapping such as stretch outs. Greater success comes from solving problems other can't handle.

Mitch44
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2021, 10:54 AM   #14
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
I think I read that, probably in one of your posts or someone elses, as it relates to PL ranks. The other factors total picture when compared to other possible contenders can really clarify the issue.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Well done Bill and thanks for sharing. You point out a very important fact about Profit Line ranks. According to Twin Spires when there are ties in PL odds the tie is broken by post position. Let's say the #3 and #5 both have PL odds of 15-1. By default the 3 would rank ahead of the 5 although closer examination may show the 5 is the stronger of the 2. Another thing to check is BPP ranks. You will find that sometimes a horse that has NEVER been on todays' surface will rank higher then those that have. You may want to[and I do] downgrade this horse when you make your final selections. Bottom line DON'T blindly accept any rankings. Do your due diligence.
Tim
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2021, 11:22 AM   #15
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Quote:
Originally Posted by raceman5 View Post
Here is the $60,000 question Bill, after you get your top 5 how do u narrow it down to your top 2? After all, in today's racing, the av field is around 7-8 horses in a race on the dirt, unless it is a turf race.

Bob
In previous posts in this thread we have covered rankings of the four main factors. So any horse without a top 5 ranking in ALL four factors is suspect - in this study 84+% of all winners had top 5 ranks in all four factors across all distances and surfaces (but see LT1's post further on about PL and BPP.) You would be surprised how few races where there are five horses with all of the four main factors!

What follows is pretty much basic Sartin Methodology.

Next you can look on the TPR graph to see who the top 3 EPR, LPR and TPR horses are and if they are within 5 points of the best. Exceptions to the within 5 points might be extreme early and late horses, but the early horses need to be their and 2C.

Look at the total energy TE ranking and the actual TE value of the remaining contenders. If there are more than about 2.75 points (my estimate, could be different with others) difference between a horse under consideration and the best, consider dropping this horse as a win contender.

In this regard you can always consult the POR TE on the RX3 screen (rt side of Rx3 info) and compare the POR from the paceline to the TE rank within today's contenders. If the horse is coming out of a race whose POR was #5 and today the horse is #4 or #5 in your mix of contenders, probably downgrade it.

If you suspect any of this is "suspect" go back and have RDSS auto choose lines and go to the Analysis Rx screen and see who won. Based on the information in this study I went back over the weekend's races at Saratoga and kept for final consideration, the top 3 PL, the top 3 BPP and the top 3 TPR. Then I did what I suggest above and made some eliminations. You would be surprised at how many of the races had W/P/S horses in the top 4 or 5 picks.

The more races you see, the better you will get at eliminations. Go back and record what you did, how it turned out, and you will find areas where downgrading a pick should be required.

Buenos knot holes going forward,
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2021, 11:50 AM   #16
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Well done Bill and thanks for sharing. You point out a very important fact about Profit Line ranks. According to Twin Spires when there are ties in PL odds the tie is broken by post position. Let's say the #3 and #5 both have PL odds of 15-1. By default the 3 would rank ahead of the 5 although closer examination may show the 5 is the stronger of the 2. Another thing to check is BPP ranks. You will find that sometimes a horse that has NEVER been on todays' surface will rank higher then those that have. You may want to[and I do] downgrade this horse when you make your final selections. Bottom line DON'T blindly accept any rankings. Do your due diligence.
Tim
Also from Mitch: "Once you get below -15 or above +15 your out of what is a normal variant normal. Once I select all of my lines I then review the variants and create a new norm by seeing what the average is for my chosen lines. Then I see what is abnormal by that standard, if a horse is abnormal I try to seek another line.

Sometimes you can use another line and sometimes your just stuck with it, especially with young horses with limited data. Even if stuck with it, the line provides important information as to its preference to distance or surface. Like a FTS if its horrible I just disregard it and consider it an UNK. Factor."

Have you ever noticed the variants of a horse's first start, especially if it won? Many times you will see a negative -15 and then it goes into its next race against winners and loses but the variant is close to zero or even a little positive, where the horse finishes up the track with no noted excuses. If all the horses in race 2 have positive variants, this horse's chances are probably over stated.

How many times do you see a near zero or positive variant win with an adjusted speed rating (ASR) of say 75 jump and in its second race to an ASR of 88 with a -15 variant? Yes, expect that a second race SHOULD show improvement, but not all do. But in my mind no horse jumps more than a few ASR points from race to race, certainly NOT 13 or more.

In this regard, pay attention to the distance being run. Early in their careers young horses often start out at 5 or 5.5 furlongs and post relatively high ASRs, but look what happens when the distances stretch out. An ASR of 75 at 5.5f often turns out to be an ASR of 73 at six furlongs, and perhaps 71 at 6.5 furlongs. In other words, the ability of the horse is declining as the distance gets longer. You will also find some horses get better as the distance progresses so you have to make that judgment in your line selection. Look at the TPR graph along with these other observations. To me its a dead give away if the TPR total is lower as the races get longer. Sometimes the EPR gets bigger with corresponding lowering of the LPR.

When I first started in racing reading the form, you would often hear trainers say a horse was a certain distance horse, like "this horse is a perfect middle distance horse (8.0f - 8.5f) but cannot last to 9F". Another instance in many 7f races you will find horses that only run 6.5f or 7f, but never successfully go two turns. Many times by taking this view of the PPs you can prevent yourself from choosing a line not at today's distance that contradicts what distance the horse is good at. This is one really good reason to choose lines within .5 F of today's distance, after determining if a shorter distance line is appropriate. Most often I use a line at the race distance no matter how far back, as long as the energy expenditure is in the horses normal range and the TPR graph supports it.
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2021, 12:25 PM   #17
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,037
When it comes to Mdn winners going against winners for the first time pay close attention to turn time. Doc stated[and I've found it to be true] that if it doesn't rank in the top 2 tt they don't usually win. The reasoning according to Doc was that mdns tend to loaf on the turn.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2021, 12:38 PM   #18
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
In previous posts in this thread we have covered rankings of the four main factors. So any horse without a top 5 ranking in ALL four factors is suspect - in this study 84+% of all winners had top 5 ranks in all four factors across all distances and surfaces (but see LT1's post further on about PL and BPP.) You would be surprised how few races where there are five horses with all of the four main factors!

What follows is pretty much basic Sartin Methodology.

Next you can look on the TPR graph to see who the top 3 EPR, LPR and TPR horses are and if they are within 5 points of the best. Exceptions to the within 5 points might be extreme early and late horses, but the early horses need to be their and 2C.

Look at the total energy TE ranking and the actual TE value of the remaining contenders. If there are more than about 2.75 points (my estimate, could be different with others) difference between a horse under consideration and the best, consider dropping this horse as a win contender.

In this regard you can always consult the POR TE on the RX3 screen (rt side of Rx3 info) and compare the POR from the paceline to the TE rank within today's contenders. If the horse is coming out of a race whose POR was #5 and today the horse is #4 or #5 in your mix of contenders, probably downgrade it.

If you suspect any of this is "suspect" go back and have RDSS auto choose lines and go to the Analysis Rx screen and see who won. Based on the information in this study I went back over the weekend's races at Saratoga and kept for final consideration, the top 3 PL, the top 3 BPP and the top 3 TPR. Then I did what I suggest above and made some eliminations. You would be surprised at how many of the races had W/P/S horses in the top 4 or 5 picks.

The more races you see, the better you will get at eliminations. Go back and record what you did, how it turned out, and you will find areas where downgrading a pick should be required.

Buenos knot holes going forward,
Good info Bill, thanks for that.
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2021, 12:40 PM   #19
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
Variants

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Also from Mitch: "Once you get below -15 or above +15 your out of what is a normal variant normal. Once I select all of my lines I then review the variants and create a new norm by seeing what the average is for my chosen lines. Then I see what is abnormal by that standard, if a horse is abnormal I try to seek another line.

Sometimes you can use another line and sometimes your just stuck with it, especially with young horses with limited data. Even if stuck with it, the line provides important information as to its preference to distance or surface. Like a FTS if its horrible I just disregard it and consider it an UNK. Factor."

Have you ever noticed the variants of a horse's first start, especially if it won? Many times you will see a negative -15 and then it goes into its next race against winners and loses but the variant is close to zero or even a little positive, where the horse finishes up the track with no noted excuses. If all the horses in race 2 have positive variants, this horse's chances are probably over stated.

How many times do you see a near zero or positive variant win with an adjusted speed rating (ASR) of say 75 jump and in its second race to an ASR of 88 with a -15 variant? Yes, expect that a second race SHOULD show improvement, but not all do. But in my mind no horse jumps more than a few ASR points from race to race, certainly NOT 13 or more.

In this regard, pay attention to the distance being run. Early in their careers young horses often start out at 5 or 5.5 furlongs and post relatively high ASRs, but look what happens when the distances stretch out. An ASR of 75 at 5.5f often turns out to be an ASR of 73 at six furlongs, and perhaps 71 at 6.5 furlongs. In other words, the ability of the horse is declining as the distance gets longer. You will also find some horses get better as the distance progresses so you have to make that judgment in your line selection. Look at the TPR graph along with these other observations. To me its a dead give away if the TPR total is lower as the races get longer. Sometimes the EPR gets bigger with corresponding lowering of the LPR.

When I first started in racing reading the form, you would often hear trainers say a horse was a certain distance horse, like "this horse is a perfect middle distance horse (8.0f - 8.5f) but cannot last to 9F". Another instance in many 7f races you will find horses that only run 6.5f or 7f, but never successfully go two turns. Many times by taking this view of the PPs you can prevent yourself from choosing a line not at today's distance that contradicts what distance the horse is good at. This is one really good reason to choose lines within .5 F of today's distance, after determining if a shorter distance line is appropriate. Most often I use a line at the race distance no matter how far back, as long as the energy expenditure is in the horses normal range and the TPR graph supports it.
My question Mitch is this. What do u consider an abnormal variant?

Bob
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2021, 01:51 PM   #20
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Every horse has a best distance. Just because a horse finishes in the money does not mean that's its best distance. Even trainers are fooled by this and don't adjust. Part of this has to do with the deceleration factor and Match Up.

Speed Ratings are greatly effected by distance also. However no one has more effect on the game than the Racing Secretary. By not carding certain distances for a period of time he forces trainers with sharp horses to run at inappropriate distances. Ditto for surface and class of races. Inept trainers also darken their form by wrongful placing of their horses.

Not an easy game to master but like any field of endeavor some do and most are regulated to the minors. Water seeks its own level and no black box approach will outperform detailed analysis and study. No matter how good someone is, you must always strive for improvement or get trampled.

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
A Saratoga Saturday Latekick Selections 35 08-05-2016 02:12 PM
Saratoga 2015 - PaceandCap Weekend ? Ted Craven General Discussion 5 03-30-2015 08:07 AM
Alabama Stakes 2014 Saratoga Ted Craven Races of Interest 5 08-16-2014 02:19 PM
** Update: Saratoga 2012 Plans Ted Craven 2012 48 08-17-2012 11:55 AM
Pace and Cap / Sartin Methodology Weekend at Saratoga 2010 Ted Craven 2010 5 07-26-2010 11:48 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:02 PM.