Early/Late Difference Graph

[Mitch44]

Quitters and 70% Med horses are sort of two different things. They will fight till they run out of gas. Quitters also tend not to pass horses or fight when challenged. 70% plus horses tend to be Need to Lead types and if they don't get it some will fold while others will continue to the wire but just won't pass a horse. Obviously Tot Energy has a bearing on all this and if a NTL with the best Tot Energy it may still win, you won't find that often but it happens. Normally because of their pitiful 3rd FR their not high on Tot. Energy but can be depending on the Match Up.

I use Prime or Profit for my 5 Contenders, therefore my contenders are not a problem. The winner will be there 90% of the time. However I understand your ? and be it 5 or 12 horses, eliminate low velocity horses with high deceleration. Keep 5 for record purposes, also for the proper Match UP. I could scratch down to 3 but I don't, nor do I hide horses. I may hide them in my mind but not in the program. I don't recommend this because it can alter the Match Up. Keep 5 horses.

You will lose races if you don't verify lines chosen by the program. If its last 3 races were at the wrong surface or distance it'll use one of those 3 lines. You could end up with a 5.5 F line for todays route race etc. Its easy and fast to do, the program is not smarter than your brain. It does what its programmed to do but not smarter than your own brain. This game is tuff enough and I don't believe in giving up anything going into a race. Take the time and verify the lines. Your better off doing one race correctly than doing 9 or 10 with a hap hazard approach. Its about quality not quantity. I never heard of Kahunab's approach and don't agree with it.

A bad pace line can greatly effect the CSR, V/DC and other ratings. If you have the correct contenders and pace lines lean more to RX3, V/DC and BLBL. I always begin my analysis with the TPR screen and the Velocity -PoH screen and than confirm my analysis with other screens.

Quality not quantity,

Mitch44

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Quitters and 70% Med horses are sort of two different things. They will fight till they run out of gas. Quitters also tend not to pass horses or fight when challenged. 70% plus horses tend to be Need to Lead types and if they don't get it some will fold while others will continue to the wire but just won't pass a horse. Obviously Tot Energy has a bearing on all this and if a NTL with the best Tot Energy it may still win, you won't find that often but it happens. Normally because of their pitiful 3rd FR their not high on Tot. Energy but can be depending on the Match Up.

I use Prime or Profit for my 5 Contenders, therefore my contenders are not a problem. The winner will be there 90% of the time. However I understand your ? and be it 5 or 12 horses, eliminate low velocity horses with high deceleration. Keep 5 for record purposes, also for the proper Match UP. I could scratch down to 3 but I don't, nor do I hide horses. I may hide them in my mind but not in the program. I don't recommend this because it can alter the Match Up. Keep 5 horses.

You will lose races if you don't verify lines chosen by the program. If its last 3 races were at the wrong surface or distance it'll use one of those 3 lines. You could end up with a 5.5 F line for todays route race etc. Its easy and fast to do, the program is not smarter than your brain. It does what its programmed to do but not smarter than your own brain. This game is tuff enough and I don't believe in giving up anything going into a race. Take the time and verify the lines. Your better off doing one race correctly than doing 9 or 10 with a hap hazard approach. Its about quality not quantity. I never heard of Kahunab's approach and don't agree with it.

A bad pace line can greatly effect the CSR, V/DC and other ratings. If you have the correct contenders and pace lines lean more to RX3, V/DC and BLBL. I always begin my analysis with the TPR screen and the Velocity -PoH screen and than confirm my analysis with other screens.

Quality not quantity,

Mitch44

Regarding my example of the 9/22 R3 at PID and in follow up to your comments... The 6 was the Prime Power #1 and it had also been passing or holding its own in its last 3 starts (I calculate what I call "closing points" and the horse had 6 of 12). So, it wasn't your typical NTL horse, even though I had it as the highest E/L in the field.

[Mitch44]

ranchwest;

I looked at the 6 horse that you gave as an example. If you used L3 which you had to for that scenario than your correct and IMO you lucked out. I would have used L2 for that horse myself which totally changes its amount of deceleration , 3rd FR and red stick.
The 6 improved much in its last two races , also was #1 on Prime and was claimed by a better trainer who is 25% 2nd off the claim and 25 % 2nd start with the trainer. Also appears to have changed its running style in last race.

All this stuff is pace line dependent. The worse horse in the field sometimes wins, that's an exception not the norm. Horses can and do outrun their numbers due to many reasons and many are predicable while others aren't.

A steady diet of these high + horses will cost more than you'll win. It is not the key to the mint. If that was your sole reason for betting it than good luck with that in the future as their money burners.

Not all high deceleration horses are NTL types, generally those over 70% Med are. They can have high deceleration and be low on or high on Tot. Energy. Horses decelerate at different rates, the better ones decelerate gradually and the worse quickly.

Wishing you great success in the future ranch.

Mitch44

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

ranchwest;

I looked at the 6 horse that you gave as an example. If you used L3 which you had to for that scenario than your correct and IMO you lucked out. I would have used L2 for that horse myself which totally changes its amount of deceleration , 3rd FR and red stick.
The 6 improved much in its last two races , also was #1 on Prime and was claimed by a better trainer who is 25% 2nd off the claim and 25 % 2nd start with the trainer. Also appears to have changed its running style in last race.

All this stuff is pace line dependent. The worse horse in the field sometimes wins, that's an exception not the norm. Horses can and do outrun their numbers due to many reasons and many are predicable while others aren't.

A steady diet of these high + horses will cost more than you'll win. It is not the key to the mint. If that was your sole reason for betting it than good luck with that in the future as their money burners.

Not all high deceleration horses are NTL types, generally those over 70% Med are. They can have high deceleration and be low on or high on Tot. Energy. Horses decelerate at different rates, the better ones decelerate gradually and the worse quickly.

Wishing you great success in the future ranch.

Mitch44

Thanks for your commentary, you are a master of Sartin. I found that arguments could be made for any of the 6 ITM lines. Your best argument, IMHO, puts me on line 1 because it came after the claim.

I do know something about the claiming game. While the 25% stats impress me mildly, there's a lot more to know about a particular claim.

[dlivery]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Thanks for your commentary, you are a master of Sartin. I found that arguments could be made for any of the 6 ITM lines. Your best argument, IMHO, puts me on line 1 because it came after the claim.

I do know something about the claiming game. While the 25% stats impress me mildly, there's a lot more to know about a particular claim.

Say there are 10 examples of the horse in the PP's this wpould serve as a menu and see from past races how the horse feels during the race work out and after

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by dlivery

Say there are 10 examples of the horse in the PP's this wpould serve as a menu and see from past races how the horse feels during the race work out and after

I am not grasping what you are saying.

[Mitch44]

You may be correct about L 1 ranch. I chose that L 2 with using the PP's of Bris and not the program. They use different procedures for variants etc. I don't know what the Program said.

Mitch44

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

You may be correct about L 1 ranch. I chose that L 2 with using the PP's of Bris and not the program. They use different procedures for variants etc. I don't know what the Program said.

Mitch44

Your rationale on the claim was that the horse went to a better barn. In my mind, I am thinking to give slight preference to the post-claim race regardless of whether the barn is an improvement or not because it will be the best representation of the horse's best comparison to today. This is only for cases where the decision is otherwise in the air. What do you think?

[Ted Craven]

Which is a more consistent running style for the #6 winner - as a Presser/Sustained-Presser, or Early? If Early (no) use Line 3, otherwise, Line 1 or Line 2. Not sure E/L Diff was useful here, as the big red stick for the #6 using Line 3 is just not typical for this horse, either using E/L Diff or %Median.

Other factors help. (Using default settings, as usual, no line changes).

[ranchwest]

Thanks, Ted. So, the default line for RDSS was line 1. Thanks for your response and insight.