Early/Late Difference Graph

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Admittedly, I am not a Sartin expert. But maybe I bring fresh eyes. Or maybe I am stupid and don't know it.

In yesterday's 3rd at PID, I had the 6 with the highest E/L and one of the lower TE and TPR ratings based on my line selections. I think the E/L value can sometimes indicate that a horse can exert a lot of energy within some portion of the race. So, I bet the 6 to win. The horse lays off the pace, circles the field near the top of the stretch and draws off to win convincingly. Paid $9.20 after having been 6/1 shortly before post.

My point here is the guidelines are great, but sometimes there is a deeper picture than the basic guidelines reveal. Each race is a puzzle. Sometimes it is a thinking man's game.

That shows What I have always said: POSTION is not or never has been ENERGY distribution. The e/l tells you when these CAN win

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

That shows What I have always said: POSTION is not or never has been ENERGY distribution. The e/l tells you when these CAN win

I think I had the wrong line, though I think there's a lot of interpretation in selecting the line on this one. Ted and I concluded line 1 is best, but we did so for different reasons.

[Mitch44]

I thought lines either 1 or 2 were best and chose L 2 using Bris PP.( Better Tot Energy all 3 FR's ) Not sure what the Perceptor chose between Lines 1 & 2. I would have went with that. With its change of style in L1 it could achieve a new top and transfer some of its 1st FR to its 3 FR, but how much is a WAG at best.

I believe Ted was right on with L1 or L2. All of this is an excellent reason to review the lines chosen.

MItch44

[Mitch44]

For clarity a Blue stick is a + and a Red stick is a minus, the + and - aren't shown. Hence a -20 the horse is decelerating sharply and is an Early horse. A +20 is a S or late horse and is gaining.

Now with an + 20 horse in a 3rd FR its apt to pass tiring E types (E,EP & P) They can pick up the pieces or pass tiring E horses. Can they win? Well their more suited to Turf races and longer races. Sure some of them can, all depending on the Match Up and make up of the other horses. Many of these types are one run closers that fail to get up for the Win but Place or show a lot. The best closers that can win are horses that are high ranked in HE(Hidden Energy), because they put together two good Fr's( 2nd & 3rd FR). HE trumps a horse thats a one run closer or all 3rd FR.

-20 or Red Stick horses are Early type horses and the longer the red stick the more it decelerates. These types tend to be NTL and too fast early to win however they may hang on for P or S. Note a horse can be -15 and be a 70% horse or NTL, so don't think its just -20 horses, its depends on its Total Energy. Tot. Energy is figured into % Med which is more accurate than the Red Sticks.

If your keeping a Track Profile using the color sticks you need to know if it was a + 15 or a -15 that won. If you just put 15 you won't know that later when summarizing results. Actually computing %Med of winners is much better but the color sticks can suffice to see how a track performs at various distances and surfaces.

If you keep track of this stuff it will provide insights. Know that the Match Up supersedes all this. I.e. No matter how fast and speed favoring SA. MTH or PRX is, if every horses in the field or a particular race is an S type, well an S is going to win. Ditto if the field if full of 70% Med horses. The make up of the field of horses has an effect on the Match Up.

With these Red and Blue sticks look for a range by distance and surface, it'll help you to discount horses or toss them. The Match Up in the Program supersedes all this and its accounted for. Tracking this stuff will provide valuable insights.

This Mine the Bird example, I'm sure he wasn't a one run closer and probably ranked very high on HE.

Mitch44

[Ted Craven]

A correction to what Mitch wrote above - in Early/Late Difference, Early is a POSITIVE number and Late is NEGATIVE (not the other way round). E/L Diff is simply EPR minus LPR. If the number is POSITIVE, there's surplus of Early Energy over Late and the stick in the E/L Graph will be RED and to the right. If NEGATIVE, there is more Late than Early energy and the stick is to the left and BLUE. Per the image below from an earlier post in this Thread.

Do a few calculations by hand to get the feel. For example, in the #6 horse's Sept 14 race, EPR = 82.8 and LPR = 86.9. 82.8 - 86.9 = -4.1 (more Late than Early). The Diff figure is shown in the RDSS Model Excel export files (Col BF) as positive or negative numbers. One should record this figure as positive or negative.

Everything else Mitch wrote is applicable, particularly the advice to model the range of E/L Diff by track/surface and distance, and the point which Tim Y has been reiterating for some time.

[Ted Craven]

Also note - in most Turf races and many Routes, there will be generally be more Late energy BLUE sticks than Early RED ones: horses generally disbursing their energy Late versus Early. In these cases, the RDSS E/L Diff Graph indicates which is the least Late (i.e. most Early) for help in identifying counter-energy types. Below, the 2nd ranked Early horse in each example is a horse with BLUE or Late difference, but it is the 2nd most Early.

[Mitch44]

These numbers in the red and blue sticks first appeared in 1991 in the book titled Pace Makes the Race. Specifically in the chapter titled Advanced Concepts which was written by Howard Sartin himself.

Any horse whose LPR was less than its EPR was given a minus - and any horse whose LPR was greater was given a plus +.
On page 333 Sartin states;" I have inserted a difference a difference between EPR and FFR) column as a means of demonstrating the Deceleration Factor. As you gain more experience with this method, the Deceleration Factor will help you to discount horses Numbers Game on the basis of too much Deceleration. Horses with low Deceleration frequently finish in -the money"

Throughout that chapter he displays this and always a horse with a lower LPR is given a minus and a higher than its EPR is given a plus. Its a visual aide that allows a handicapper to visualize how the horse performs in the crucial 3rd FR. If this plus or minus is switched around it destroys the visual concept of Deceleration. Early types in the 3rd FR are decelerating, some quickly and others gradually. S types are increasing their speed or running faster than in the earlier part of the race.

Basically horses with the smallest numbers are Decelerating the least and carry their speed further and are the better horses who frequently are in the money as compared to those with large numbers. This can also be used for determining an Early or Late bias for a track.

By todays advancements this was the first look at the Deceleration Factor and its effect on a race. Later came Entropy and than V/DC. Most have a problem understanding V/DC but can grasp this original method using the sticks and numbers provided one uses the Plus + and Minus -correctly as originally intended.. It'll help to eliminate horses too slow or too fast as win contenders and putting you closer to your goal of picking the correct two horses for win betting and finding the correct horses for EX. and other gimmick betting.

While not a contrarian thinker, on this one Ted I'm riding along with "The Doc." We'll have to agree to disagree on this. It has served me well for many years. To reverse or flip the + or - totally destroys Sartin's original purpose and hinders a user from grasping Deceleration in its basic form.

Mitch44

[Ted Craven]

The E/L Difference graph is a visual aid to show surplus and relative Early versus Late energy. When using it, one is not thinking in pluses or minuses, rather balances or (relative) extremes.

I accept Sartin's characterization from the original PMTR book of more Late as a positive value rather than how the number is characterized in export models in RDSS (negative value). (And thanks Mitch for prompting me to dig out my old copy of the book, with Sartin, Brohamer, Schmidt, and Hambleton's autographs ).

I use the same code and formulas in RDSS as I got from Doc Sartin. Internally, in Validator, and Speculator, and Synthesis (RDSS ancestor software by Doc Sartin), surplus Late is shown as a negative value same as RDSS. I chose to not argue with Sartin about why he reversed his formula.

Look - it doesn't matter whether one number is positive and the other is negative; whether you keep your hand-made models with a minus sign or a plus sign for either side, or use a separate model column for surplus Late and another one for surplus Early, or use a smiley face or a frowny face for that matter. It matters that you accurately keep your range of values by track/surface and distance by some means.

Those who use RDSS, which can export data for you so you don't have to write it down by hand, can continue using what you've always been using! Those who don't use RDSS can certainly use whatever means you like to distinguish E versus L Difference. Don't worry though, the concept is not totally destroyed when you use a different +/- sign than in the PMTR book when doing it by hand - if you understand the concept in the first place.

1retired - this digression is mostly for your benefit, since you are not yet using RDSS. Do please distinguish between the direction of the BLUE versus RED E/L sticks in your model keeping. If you do it the way I have described above, you won't have to swap the signs when you start using RDSS.

Ted

[1retired]

Ted/Mitch

Thanks for your advice and comments. I appreciate you taking the time to give theem to me. them. It's all a learning experience for me.

I am now diligently surfing the posts of "Races of Interest" which is really a goldmine for how to handicap using RDSS. There is a ton of info there that I am soaking up.

iI have also uncovered 2 more races that qualify for Lueylumps Spot Play Anmgle. That brings my race database up to 10 races. The last three were (1)Palace Malice's Belmont Stakes race, which he won, a MSW 2s race at CHD that Bill Lyster posted about - aklso where the horse won at 14-1, and (3) A Marland Million graded stakes race at LRL where a horse which won a Stakes race at Penn National, and then finished 4th by a length for the first loss which this angle has shown. This race situation does not come up bvery often - about once every 50 or 100 races based on what I've seen in the "Races of Interest section. The great thing is that these are all longer odds horses and many of the exacta's and trifectas of these races pay $100-1000 and are gettable.

Mitch, when I was describing Kahunab's idea, I may have not specified enough about it. It is based on a Bill Quirin angle from his book abbout early speed horses. HQuirin said that if you have enough early horses in the race and their ES totals add up to 21 or more then the early speed horses will burn each other out and the winner will be eitgher a qualified presser or a sustained horse . Kahunab says look at the entries screen and see what numbers show up on the running style. I'ts that simple. I'm sure you are familiar with that idea. I'm surprised that people at this website (users) don't have a spot play angle for this situation. There is a relatively recent book out called something like "Doodling at the Races", which, among other angles, talks about discovering which of the multiple tracks running on any particular day have situations or races that are loaded with early speed horses and then playing the qualifiied presser and sustained horses in those races to win. It's hard enough to have an edge in this game with track take and syndicates pounding down the price of low priced favorites more and more. When we do have an advantage as in this particular situation where a race is loaded with early speed, we should have an angle to take advantage of it.

Kahuna b has also worked races in which all the races show horses with red sticks of varying length, where they all had similar total energies and TPRs and posed the question of which horse should win? Of course, the answer is the least red stick horse or the one with the most balance. He's done the same thing with turf races in which all the horses which had all blue sticks of varying length and posed the same question with the opposite answer, the horse with the most balance and the smallest blue stick. To me, using the sticks gives a great visual representation of what the race offers you. The Hat said "take what the race offers you". This helps me do that.

I spent quite a few years using Beyer numbers and posting par times for races at the 1st, 2nd and finish and then betting the horse with the best numbers, almost invariably at low odds. I got farily good at it but I was just vbarely
breaking even. tnRDSS gives me a chance to get horses at long odds using the tools that it offers. . o. h

Again, thanks for you helpful comments.

1retired

[Mitch44]

For an early speed duel I like at least 3 horses. If only two and one is out of form the duel may never develop.

The horses with the smallest numbers on the sticks are the better horses. Their more balanced and more apt to be in the money.

There are some great tools within the RDSS program and few use them. If you don't want to use the + or - on your excel sheet simply put a R or B next to the number. R for red and B for blue, just a number won't help much for a track profile, especially as to distance and surface.

There are many good spot play angles and you need to recognize them when they come up. Anyone going to work with one tool isn't going to get much accomplished. Wishing you much success in the future 1 retired.

Mitch44