Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-16-2016, 04:59 PM   #1
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
How I use RDSS2

This is my reply to a email.
The person who wrote me had a request
Could I send him my reply in a private Email because he said when others reply to my workups ( which there are many) he gets confused.

I wrote back and said, yes I will show you how I use RDSS but No, I will not send you a private workup.
The reason? The way I use RDSS works well for me, But I am just one person, with my own feelings. I wrote back and told the emailer, If you don't
want to listen to others you don't have too, Post on Pace and Cap are not novels if you disagree with Tom, Dick or Harry that is a choice you are free to make.
I feel that what I do is a good foundation for success, but other's can add
to my bass . You will have great success with RDSS once you find a method that works best for you ,
So I ask all pace and cap people How do you use RDSS

I will get things started


First thing I have my setting set like this,

Name:  settingsdoc.PNG
Views: 1355
Size:  26.1 KB

This is how Doc left Validator
I always did very well with Validator, In all the years I used Val 1,2 3 and
Val 4 I never though, man If I could change some settings I would do better ! No I never did, and I wonder why we could not change things on
Validator, Maybe Doc knew It would harm more than help ?
also I look at the VDC readout and Doc had a hard rule about 7.5 beaten lengths, Saying beaten lengths over 7.5 mess up the VDC readout

Okay that is that about settings,so I use RDSS as if it was Validator
for the VDC readout and the adjustments set by Doc.

So how do I use RDSS?
Its very simple - Phase 1
There are many great readouts on RDSS, I just don't use them

So basically there is not much to add
I use RDSS to download my cards
I use RDSS for the Tote X ray
I only look at two screens, The two screens I use are
The TPR/PMTR screen and the Segments screen.


So once I get a card loaded. I turn on the tote Xray ( if I'm working races live) I open the races from the tracks I follow,

I go through these steps

1. Check the conditions
2. Set the option to select the last pace line for every horse in the race

Name:  Pacelines selection method.PNG
Views: 1315
Size:  19.1 KB

3. Check who are the top 5 TPR horses from the last pace line.
4. Look at the TPR ratings of these 5 horses
5. Look at the Best EPR horses,

Name:  top5tprany.PNG
Views: 1237
Size:  27.4 KB

6. Go to the original PP's and find the fulcrum horse
7. Mark The running styles
8. Change the pace line selection option to Best of the last 3 comparable

Name:  BTL3.PNG
Views: 1235
Size:  15.4 KB

9. Now I go through each horse and see if the BLT/C has selected a usable line IF the last line is excusable
10, Go to the TPR/PMTR tab
11. Find the top EPR horses

Name:  BL3anaysis.PNG
Views: 1227
Size:  22.9 KB

12 Check the F1 panel on the segments screen, Who is getting the lead?
12, Hide non contenders who are deficient in EPR or LPR or TPR,
13 Hide or note horses who deficient relative to the conditions
14 Check the length of the sticks, Who is too early ? Who is too late
15. Look at the top 3 VDC horses and look for the horses with weak VDC
16 Match up, Is a Early horse or OTE horse going to win.
17 Find my bets based on Phase 1, The Match Up and the VDC readout
18 Make my bets based on the tote xray odds, or if I am traveling and betting ahead of time Check the morning lines

That is all and everything

So How do you use RDSS ?

Thanks
Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2016, 05:48 PM   #2
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
There it is in spades!

Awesome layout Bill! You are amazingly consistent which is key for making money.

Thanx for taking the time to show us your procedure!
Richie
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!"
RichieP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2016, 08:27 PM   #3
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,148
Bill,

Nice workup of how you use the program

Thanks
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2016, 08:33 AM   #4
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Conditions Life Time Record and APV CR

I simplified my steps in Post 1
Yes the first thing I do is check the conditions of the race.
But I also look at the APV, The CR and the earnings box of each horse

Name:  conditions pic.PNG
Views: 1135
Size:  9.6 KB


Here is the morning line favorite for todays 3rd race at Parx

Name:  rosie life apv.PNG
Views: 1210
Size:  91.3 KB

Rosie has 10 wins The condition for this race is CL12.5 Non winners of a race in 6 months 124 lbs
Rosie has the most wins in the field, (10) Her APV is under 1.00 but her class rating is good at 117 so she has done well against lesser horses . I also check the race rating. Todays race is a 77 I usually look for good efforts in races over 80.

The 5 horse has 4 wins, It has good APV and CR ratings
but it has placed 11 times

Name:  The 5.PNG
Views: 1112
Size:  89.6 KB

These are all factors I get when using RDSS
Attached Images
 
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2016, 01:38 PM   #5
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
The way I use TPR is as follows: My set up is the same as your with the exception that I start off with my pace line selection with Preceptor the best of the last 3 comparable and don't change it. I review every line chosen with my computer set up with 3 screens: #1 on original screen to verify the line chosen for agreement. That screen gives the Preceptor for all its races and the POR (pace of the race) for each race. I never use off track lines for dirt races even if the conditions today are off as they can vary greatly and aren't created equal. I will use an off trk. line for a turf race if the horse has no turf races. I attempt to stay within 1/2 F with my lines but will except 1F. This is important because of deceleration rates after more than 1 F just aren't accurate. Also on the screen are the variants for review and I'm leery of very high abnormal ones ( over +27 or -7 and under) note sometimes your forced to use what you have and if their all coming from the same track with aberrant variants its OK. SA many low fast tracks with many under -7 or Mahoney where all may have variants of +40 etc. #2 screen I have set on TPR/ E/L so I can check the line chosen to insure it agrees with its normal running style,#3 screen is set on the BL/BL screen so I can check more than one line for the same horse if in doubt.
Regardless of the set up chosen for pace line selection I pity the individual who doesn't verify the line chosen and confirms it. It does very well but can cost you $$$$$ if not verified.

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2016, 02:10 PM   #6
Bill S
AlwNW3X
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Bensalem PA
Posts: 33
". . . .I'm leery of very high abnormal ones ( over +27 or -7 and under)"

Mitch, can you explain to me why you choose -7 and under as your limit? I feel the same way about picking lines with variants like this, but I usually don't use -15 and under and I'm wondering if maybe I need to rethink this -- thanks...
Bill S is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2016, 03:03 PM   #7
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
Hi guys
I capped this race today and this what I did. My win contenders were the 1 entry,4 &5
for horse #1 I used line 3 line 1 too high a class,line2 wrong dist
1a line 3 line1 too high class,and 1st from l/o l2 7f more then 1f todays dist
#4 l2 better adj sr then lin1 and preferred by program
#5 line 4 l1 sly sealed trk 1st from lo, l4 better adj sr then lines 2 &3 and is same class and dist as today. I note its from 198 days ago, but I don't confine myself to the 90 day guideline and it gives the horse its' best chance to win something that Marion Jones and Vic Paiermo stressed at the 93 Vegas seminar. I passed the race due to low payoffs. The 4 won paying $4,$2.40,$2.10, the 1 was 2nd $2.40 $2.20 the 5 was 3rd $2.80. The ex paid $10.40,$1 tri paid $13.60
Tim

Last edited by Lt1; 05-17-2016 at 03:05 PM.
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2016, 03:12 PM   #8
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Hi Bill S:
The reason I use those two criteria is that what I learned at the SAR. seminar back in the early 90's from Glenn Connolly. The Sartin groups research determined that the average variant across the country was 17. On either side of this there is a point that it becomes unreliable. Glen was a mathematician who worked in the space program with formulas but he was an individual who loved to do research. It was his determination as far as I know that came up with that and he stated that was what he used. Good enough for me.Those adjustments give you 10 lengths on either side, after that your dealing with a guessing game.

I suppose I could change the settings but I have always used the recommended setting with success. But I do look at the variants and sometime change a line based on that or as an example its not their running style.

If horses are all coming from the same track in many cases it safe to use them. Example races at SA all tend to be very fast with many around that -7 or under or at MV where + 35 could be the norm. This is mostly due to weather condition as in little rain and winter off tracks. If their all like that than its OK because your treating them all the same and their from the same track or if that's all you have to go on. Rather than change the settings I just review the variant for a norm. You can go the other way and change the settings but I would still recommend you review them just like you should review automatically picked pace lines. Hope this helped.
Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2016, 03:23 PM   #9
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Bill V.: Your post #1 poses an interesting race in that we don't know when it was run or the result. Very little difference here in TPR and Total Energy. My picks are 7 & 3 but that is based only on the information given. Before posting the result give some others a chance to chime in. I don't want to my rationale to influence others. Later before the result I'll give my opinions for my picks. Alright men serve them up.
Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2016, 05:08 PM   #10
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
The Fulcrum

Hi Mitch

The race I used for post 1 was a race I won.
I want to show the fulcrum for that race .

Here are the last lines for the 7 horses that ran
The condition of the race was 5.5 furlongs from Parx A 7500 claimer for F&M who have never won 4 races . It was a fast track

Here are the original lines .
Here again, are the EPR, LPR and TPR readouts ,

Name:  Race TPR.PNG
Views: 1111
Size:  28.7 KB

Name:  Original Fulcrum.PNG
Views: 1162
Size:  40.6 KB

For the fulcrum, I look at the horses with the highest EPR's in the last race ONLY
Here it is horse #3 a 90.5 EPR but Its from a 6 furlong race, The 4 horse has a 88 and its from the same track and distance as this race s I used the 4's EPR POR as the fulcrum

Here is Horse 3 Would you use line 1 with a -14 DTV ?

Name:  The 3.PNG
Views: 1188
Size:  86.6 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
** RDSS2 Beta2.6 Released! Ted Craven General Discussion 1 04-18-2013 02:25 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:50 AM.