|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
07-05-2019, 11:07 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
|
Worth A Read
Not a big fan of Steve Crist, but worth a read:
https://www.albertbridgecapital.com/...ses-and-stocks |
07-05-2019, 02:09 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
In actually he is correct however in application not as easily applied, because value which I refuse to use that term and in actuality is an overlay, value tends to mean many different things to different players and like beauty in the eye of the beholder. Value tends to lead a player by the nose because of odds only and they fail to access the horses real probability. Crist does not make this mistake however the overwhelming majority do make this mistake.
Here Crist over simplifies the ability to make a correct evaluation of true odds which is harder than picking winners, and most know how hard that can be. A horse can be an overlay while paying $4.80 or 40% profit but not all favorites at those odds are good bets. You would also have to win 5 of those bets to break even as 1 lost wipes you out. Favorites still lose 60% and are just as hard to classify as legitimate as any other horse. Someone once said "for every race you win, you'll lose two due to the form factor." Even trainers and owners don't know when a horse is going to take the day off on us. He uses an example of a low favorite winning where he got the race down to only two horses, it still was a bad bet because risk verses reward. You don't want to risk a lot for little but one really needs to know their ability or strike rate which helps to access the accuracy of all this. If you can't pick your nose all this is for nothing. We have and advantage using the two horse betting technique which smooths out the losses and prevents long losing streaks. He is correct (Crist) in theory but its not something that everyone can employ and as with any other betting it still takes discipline. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 07-05-2019 at 02:13 PM. |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Is tracking odds worth the trouble? | The Pook | Matchup Discussion | 10 | 01-18-2019 01:08 AM |
Getting Started - RDSS 2.2 - READ ME FIRST! | Ted Craven | RDSS 2.2 (and previous versions) | 0 | 08-26-2016 02:07 PM |
what you should read | Bill V. | Welcome to the Sartin Methodology | 42 | 02-23-2013 06:52 PM |
Bad Windows 7 Update ?? - Win7 Users Please Read | Ted Craven | General Discussion | 2 | 01-14-2011 04:09 PM |
Starting Fresh , from the beginning . | pktruckdriver | Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum | 2 | 09-04-2009 07:46 AM |