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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

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Old 10-20-2014, 02:24 PM   #1
PeteC
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Beginners / Refresher Teaching Thread

This thread will be for newcomers and others wanting feedback / guidance regarding the the 5-Step Approach to the Match-Up. I learned this from Richie and am happy to pass on whatever I have learned. However, I am going to depend upon other veterans, many who are more experienced than me, to help with this.

For those who want feedback, please be sure to include the following for each race:

1) E-S-P running styles for each horse- When you identify an early horse, please indicate the pace that you feel it can set / handle today.

2) Today's projected pace

3) Some analysis of the "early scenario" today, including your determination of whether the race will run early or OTE

4) Your thought process in narrowing the contenders from your "winning group", including tandems

I will try to put up at least a race or two a week, with at least one of those being on the weekend so more people may have a chance to participate.

FWIW, I am not too concerned about potential payoff or whether or not someone picks the winner. I am more interested in people's process of using the match-up steps above...

Here is a link to the 5-Step Approach....

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5715
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Old 10-20-2014, 02:27 PM   #2
PeteC
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10/21 prx #2

Here is our first race.....
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File Type: pdf 1021prx2.pdf (169.6 KB, 1301 views)
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Old 10-20-2014, 02:36 PM   #3
PeteC
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Also, if you are looking for honest feedback, it's okay to me if you don't get to the race before it runs.....I know people are busy AND if you're looking for honest feedback I'm going to assume you are matching the race without knowing the result
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Old 10-20-2014, 04:02 PM   #4
mowens33
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Hope I covered all the bases (work in process).
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Old 10-20-2014, 08:29 PM   #5
Ryan.p.coli
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Here's what I got.... Name:  10.20.14 Matchup Worksheet Parx Race 2.PNG
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Old 10-21-2014, 01:22 AM   #6
viikinki
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4 & 6 fight for the lead, 6 doesnt get the lead it needs b/c of the 4 and vice versa -> they are out
2,3 out because they are now position >= 3 and doesnt win from there.
-> OTE and I go for #1 b/c powerline match-up vs. other OTEs

If I were two horse bettor, I would bet 1 and 6.
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Old 10-21-2014, 09:56 AM   #7
raceman5
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My 2 Cents.

I see the pace of the race going in 22.3 and 46.1 taken from the 4 horse last race. we want the horse to be in the first position at the first and second call to get our pace of the race. If this does not exist then we take the horse who ran against the fastest pace last race. I see the 4-6-3 getting in a ding dong battle for the lead, but i will call the 4 in the lead judging from his start position and first call positions and the pace he can run against. He can win against a 22.1 and a 45.4. The horse i see coming at the end is the one horse who is a presser. I will excuse his last race as the jock lost his whip, he ran a good race his 2nd back. On March 14 at penn he ran a very competitive race behind a 22.3 and 45.4. ! will dutch this race using the 1 and 4.

Bob
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Old 10-21-2014, 10:36 AM   #8
chuckg
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PRX 2 Oct 21

First pass through the PPs I tag 2 3 4 6 as early.

Eliminate 1 1A 5 8 9 as slow horses.

I use the WIN and ITM boxes to separate the Earlies and the OTEs so that I can compare them in their own groups.

Looking at the Earlies, which horse will get the lead?

All 4 horses like to break 1st.

3 Golden has taken the lead over 5f twice and won. Going 5.5f today. This will be my leader since she is used to getting out quicker over shorter.

What pace? I'm looking for the fastest she has run over this track since there are three other Es to lead.

Line 5 at PRX against 22 was 1.6 back, makes it 22.3

Here are the lines matching all 4 Earlies against 22.3

Name:  PRX 2 Oct21 2014.JPG
Views: 792
Size:  47.2 KB


This shows 6 Katavi with the fastest raw times.

If the Early can't win, throw out all the earlies and look for OTE.
Can any of the Earlies win from OTE?

Name:  PRX 2 Oct21 2014 ote.JPG
Views: 779
Size:  42.9 KB


4 I'ma has won from 2nd
6 Katavi has won from 4th and chased down an open leader.

Betting 6 Katavi to Win.

Now, what to make of the 7 Quick? Lone S horse against 4 Earlies? Do we bet her at all 1st time over this track? I'd have to leave that to the PRX vets who know how to read a Pen shipper line.
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Old 10-21-2014, 11:40 AM   #9
mowens33
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Chuck, good point on the 7, looks to have a significant late pace advantage.
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Old 10-21-2014, 11:57 AM   #10
ray lopez
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I have a pace projection of 22.1 - 45.2. The early horses are 2-3-6 ,with the #6 prevailing.
Looking at #7's pp's,looks like he's got 'seconditis'...(never winning,coming in second best a few times)...
#6 to win,putting #7 in an exacta-saver bet.

Ray
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