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01-02-2019, 04:49 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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Some Thoughts for 2019
Some Thoughts for 2019:
Memorize this formula: EV = (Odds +1) x (Probability of Winning), if your bet or group bet does not create an EV greater than 1.0, you won't win Those who complain how hard it is to estimate the probability of winning do not realize that we are playing a gambling game of decision making under uncertainty, and those who dominate the betting pools are spending the time and effort to make these estimates In Sports Betting, Suckers/Squares bet teams, while Sharps/Pros bet numbers Similarly, in Horse Betting, Suckers/Squares bet horses, while Sharps/Pros bet Odds Never bet a horse to win going off at less than even money: there are few, if any, horses that have a greater than 50% chance of winning any race Never spend more than 7 minutes on your race and bet analysis: the breakdown should be no more than 2 minutes for race analysis (contenders, pace lines, analysis of favorites) and no more than 5 minutes to construct a wager. If you are using a computer program, Trust The Machine. Remember, those who dominate the betting pools are trusting their machine and probably using an algo to make the bets. If you end up looking to bet a horse to win whose odds are 7/2 or lower, make sure you can toss at least one horse to win whose win odds are 3-1 or lower to give you a chance at +EV If your method selects win contenders, your minimum win odds requirement is your number of contenders -- that is, if you have 3 win contenders your minimum win odds to make a win bet is 3-1, etc. If your method does not separate win contenders, you minimum win odds requirement is the number of horses in the race divided by 2 -- that is, 8 horses then minimum win odds is 4-1, etc. Some of this may seem harsh, but I guarantee that if you do not adhere to these betting principles you will not win. The rest is up to you. Richard |
01-02-2019, 06:23 PM | #2 | |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Quote:
My race analysis takes a little longer than 2 minutes (his brain has another gear) but I understand his point. The focus should be on the wager. |
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01-02-2019, 07:20 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I believe in tailoring the bet based on your analysis. Personally I believe more time should be placed on analysis and then tailor the bet to capitalize on that analysis.
But if the above is working for you then go for it. Mitch44 |
01-06-2019, 04:22 PM | #4 |
stretch run
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Los Lunas, NM
Posts: 28
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Nothing constructive to add, except I really like this thread. Estimate the probabilities as best you can, then hold out for the reward that compensates for the risk. In my beginners opinion, that’s the whole game.
__________________
Vic "The race may not always be to the swift, nor the victory to the strong, but that's how you bet." - Damon Runyon "I don't like money actually, but it quiets my nerves." - Joe Louis |
01-08-2019, 02:56 AM | #5 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 50
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Let me see if I understand the formula.
If my group bet (2 horses) has a combined chance to win of 50% then the average odds of those 2 horses only has to be better than EVEN money? 1.0 = (1 + 1) x 0.5 |
01-09-2019, 07:00 AM | #6 |
stretch run
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Los Lunas, NM
Posts: 28
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Swiftly,
I don't know how to write the correct equation for you, but yours doesn't include, and compensate for, the 50% of the time when both your horses lose.
__________________
Vic "The race may not always be to the swift, nor the victory to the strong, but that's how you bet." - Damon Runyon "I don't like money actually, but it quiets my nerves." - Joe Louis |
01-09-2019, 07:09 AM | #7 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 50
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I believe it does include that. That is, if the combined chance of 2 horses to win is 50% it inherently says their combined chance to lose is the remainder (which is also 50% in this case).
Any win percentage always implies the opposite loss percentage. |
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