Parx today Race 6 Quad Rater

[shoeless]

Tread lighty muddy track

[shoeless]

Here are the pacelines I used in case somebody wants to run it through a program as Quad Rater was intended more as a way to get your race down to the contenders

3 last line Oct 1

4 last line Oct 17

6 3rd line Aug 30

7 last line Oct 8th

8 last line Oct 9th


Im starting to think not only from this race but others that maybe it isnt
wise to go back 60 days for a paceline.The horse will more then likely not be in that shape today

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff

How does Quad rator do with these lines

             PRX1030 6 7.0 D CL 3+  $23,000 CP=$7,500 2:31PM
 
                     BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (VAL4)
 
IDE#  PNcNAME LdT  SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS   TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE
 
   5   9 SPANI2    79    6  21.3      8-5   PRX 7.0D  7/2   21   3
 
   2   4 THE D2 1  78    5  19.3      2-1   PRX 7.0D  6/1   13   4
 
   3   7 DEAD 1 1  79    6  17.5      5-2   PRX 7.0D  5/1   22   6
 
   1   1 BOLD 1x   79    6  17.0      5-2   MTH 8.5D  5/2   21   3
 
   4   8 CORAL2    76    7  13.5      4-1   PRX 7.0D  9/2    9   4
 
 
 
 
 
                    SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
                 ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐          │    PRIM     │  SUPP   │
                 │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│          │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│F│E│T│T│
─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│X│N│S│P│
#│PNcNAME LdT│ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│ │T│ │P│
─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤
1│ 1 BOLD 1x │ 79│ 6│4│5│21│4│11│1││5│3│1││S/P│ 4.7││4│2│2│4│2│4│3│3│3│1│2│2│
2│ 4 THE D2 1│ 78│ 5│2│1│19│2│16│3││1│4│4││E/P│ 0.5││2│4│4│1│4│2│2│2│2│4│4│4│
3│ 7 DEAD 1 1│ 79│ 6│1│3│20│3│12│2││2│1│2││PRE│ 2.7││5│1│3│4│1│5│1│4│1│3│3│1│
4│ 8 CORAL2  │ 76│ 7│3│4│27│5│25│4││3│5│5││EAR│    ││1│5│5│3│5│3│5│5│5│5│5│5│
5│ 9 SPANI2  │ 79│ 6│5│2│17│1│11│1││4│2│3││E/P│ 1.5││3│3│1│2│3│1│4│1│4│2│1│3│
─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Here are the pacelines I used in case somebody wants to run it through a program as Quad Rater was intended more as a way to get your race down to the contenders

3 last line Oct 1

4 last line Oct 17

6 3rd line Aug 30

7 last line Oct 8th

8 last line Oct 9th


Im starting to think not only from this race but others that maybe it isnt
wise to go back 60 days for a paceline.The horse will more then likely not be in that shape today

Here are my contenders for this race. All lines were picked on an automated basis. This is the order from top to bottom with line selection noted.
#4 – last line
#8 – 2 back, last line was a route
#7 – last line
#3 – last line
You may not get the same order, as I do adjustments.

As far as your note about the line you chose for #6 being 3 back and the number of days, your thinking is on the right track. My automated line selection does not choose a paceline that is more than 90 days old. I can tell you from my records, that the further back the paceline is, the less likely it is that the horse will win. Don’t get me wrong, it happens, but it is not the ‘norm’.

One final note on your #6 horse, I would be less concerned with the line being 60 days old and more concerned that the horse has a ML of 20/1. Those horses win 5% or less of all races and are not serious contenders. Sure they win once in a while, but on a daily basis from race to race, I would think the object is to narrow the field to the serious contenders, not be taking "shots in the dark". Not only that, but their line in with your real contenders has an effect on how you program sees the real contenders. Take the #6 out and see how it changes the horses that are remaining.

[shoeless]

Bill,

Is the number next to the name the line you used



FTL,

Good points you made and I did run without the 6 and it changed the outcome.
Do you use any type of software for your handicapping?

Also made posting error for the 8 I went 2 lines back,I dont like using
distance races in sprints if possible

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by shoeless

FTL,

Do you use any type of software for your handicapping?

Yes, my own. It was written by my son and I. (mostly by my son) I use it as a "tool", not as a means of selecting the horses to be bet.

I have several "numerical tools" that I use in addition to those generated by line selection.

And there is "statistical" information that I get from my database, which I also use.

In the end, the decision "to bet or not to bet", as well as "which horse to bet" is my own. I use all the tools I have along with just plain old knowledge of horse racing to reach a final decision.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by shoeless

FTL,

I dont like using distance races in sprints if possible

"if possible"?

Does somebody have a gun to your head??

If you can't get a line at a comparable distance and surface...eliminate the horse!!!

If you are THAT CONCERNED about he horse...eliminate the race!!

[Ted Craven]

I got back in too late to post this before now, so consider it a red-board. I believe a pair of win bets on 9 and 2 were indicated.



Ted

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff

Yes the line used is next to the horse name
example for the winner # 4 I used line 2
that little 1 next to the 4 and 7 means they come from the same race
the x next to the horse name and line number means the line was from a route
if you use a sprint line in a route you will see a p next to the name line number

GS
Bill

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

I got back in too late to post this before now, so consider it a red-board. I believe a pair of win bets on 9 and 2 were indicated.

Attachment 24486

Ted

Ted,

Nice picks.

Maybe I missed something, but the "PRX 6th" we have been discussing was from yesterday 10/30.

And don't worry about the "red board". lol