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Old 09-16-2020, 07:45 PM   #11
Raptor
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What are the average odds of the favorite?
9-2 or 7-2?
Anyway, the search goes on!
I have asked a serious question.
Maybe I'm asking something that cannot be answered!
It's an Art Form to predict the future that has no necessity to follow the past.
I guess I'm ok with it and don't really need any help.
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Old 09-17-2020, 01:46 PM   #12
ScottB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MJS6916 View Post
maybe I should have said 7/2 instead of 9/2.

there are some very good handicappers here.....didn't want to insult them.

Mike
I know how to pick winners and they pay all prices. You can only win with winners. I cash tickets on my fair share of horses 4-1 to 9-1 by I also cash
a lot of tickets on horses that go to post at 3/2 to 7/2.

Why try to bet a 6-1 shot when your handicapping tells you the 5/2 is the
horse. If your handicapping is good you have to go with the flow and take
what they give you. The beat the top 3 choices every race mentality is old and stale and costly.

When you post a misconception you only insult yourself.
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Old 09-17-2020, 04:03 PM   #13
MJS6916
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raptor View Post
What are the average odds of the favorite?
9-2 or 7-2?

Anyway, the search goes on!
I have asked a serious question.
Maybe I'm asking something that cannot be answered!
It's an Art Form to predict the future that has no necessity to follow the past.
I guess I'm ok with it and don't really need any help.

you must be responding to this post here:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...1&postcount=10

also, neither that post or this one:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...73&postcount=6

mentions that horses I referred to at 9/2 or 7/2 or less
had to be the post-time favorite.

Furthermore, I never wrote anything that suggested
you didn't ask your question seriously.


hope you find what you're looking for,
Mike
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Old 09-17-2020, 04:07 PM   #14
MJS6916
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MJS6916 View Post
maybe I should have said 7/2 instead of 9/2.

there are some very good handicappers here.....didn't want to insult them.

Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
I know how to pick winners and they pay all prices. You can only win with winners. I cash tickets on my fair share of horses 4-1 to 9-1 by I also cash
a lot of tickets on horses that go to post at 3/2 to 7/2.

Why try to bet a 6-1 shot when your handicapping tells you the 5/2 is the
horse. If your handicapping is good you have to go with the flow and take
what they give you. The beat the top 3 choices every race mentality is old and stale and costly.

When you post a misconception you only insult yourself.
are you sure you didn't mean to reply to someone else here?

Because none of this addresses anything I said or posted
here or anywhere else.

Mike
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Old 09-28-2020, 12:40 PM   #15
Dorianmode
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raptor View Post
Good afternoon everyone. I am searching for an easy to understand free computer program or such that can track custom factors. I put the relative rankings in and the "program" will show the ROI in retrospect.
Thank you.
Sorry I missed this thread. I think I can help you.
There is a regression tool (along with many others) in Excel, (you have to go into the options, and open the Data Analysis Tool Pack). It's free, it's just hidden until you put it on the tool bar. https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/...c-bdb5a2cefab6

I'll have to re-read what you're trying to do, but after you get the stats tools to show up, and play with the regression tool a little, we can talk, OR, we can continue the conversation here, or in the "Excel Tips and Tricks" thread which I started a while ago.
It's a great subject to discuss there.

Good luck. I used the Regression tool in Excel to add a read-out in my profiles. It's very powerful ... it tells you what weight to assign a certain read-out, in ranking them. You don't really have to re-do the regression from scratch each race, you can make a macro to rerun it, (and it takes about a second .. literally).
There also a correlation tool, and a multiple regression analysis tool, among others in Excel. Actually within certain parameters, depending on the results and how you intend to proceed, you don't need anywhere near 3000 races. You might just need 21, if the variance is within a fairly narrow range. If you use the NewPace module, or have seen it, the calculation, is, in part, based on a statistical tool that calculates (I think) up to 10 speed ratings, using the tool. I have my own, for speed ratings, that pops out not only a Composite Speed rating, but about 7 other statistical read-outs, based on the Adjusted Speed Ratings. See "Confidence Interval on the Mean" for one of them ... which has a 95 % confidence level, which is higher than the way Schwartz does it in NP. http://onlinestatbook.com/2/estimation/mean.html

https://www.probabilisticworld.com/m...d%20difference.

Last edited by Dorianmode; 09-28-2020 at 12:58 PM.
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Old 10-03-2020, 06:21 PM   #16
Raptor
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Wow!

I just won allot of money because I thought the filly could do it.
How to see the unseeable is the question.
How do I model this?
I watched Pizzolla's entire video and still bet the four.
Maybe it's two separate questions, seen vs. unseen?
Otherwise, every horse will pay nothing.
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Old 10-03-2020, 07:09 PM   #17
Raptor
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I just remembered the Dick Schmidt quote:
There are three ways to affect change--
Talking, Prayer, and Violence.
For what it's worth.
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Old 10-03-2020, 07:21 PM   #18
Lt1
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The ex payoff was outstanding also.
Tim
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Old 10-03-2020, 08:07 PM   #19
Dorianmode
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The mutuel pools (this one was 6 million +) for these big races contain a lot of recreational money, thus often offer nice prices.

Congrats Tim. That *is* a nice exacta !

We *knew* she could do it.
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Old 10-03-2020, 08:55 PM   #20
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Thanks Dorian. Great finish to the race. I admit to yelling for her to hold on.
Tim
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