Getting models quicker

[Latekick]

I am looking forward to the Churchill card Saturday with the Stephen Foster and really just a great card. I would love to play that card but the thing is, i have no model whatsoever at Churchill right now, and i will not get time to handicap the Churchill cards before Saturday. IS there any specific way to get a model in a quicker fashion? I usually take about 1-2 racing days to begin a model but for tracks that i don't handicap often, how do i get a model going quickly? This also applies to when i begin to start playing in contest later this year ( right now im reading and trying to learn everything i can) but in the contest i cant see myself having a model for every single track there is to play, so is there a quicker way to start a model and have it accurate enough to trust it? By the way i only model FW-EP-TT-HID-LP- and E-L graph.

[Peteman]

Latekick have you read Brohamer's modern pace handicapping? I do not think there
is a shortcut to making a model,but putting in the time one race at a time,based on your
handicapping,next best is a simple track profile,for tracks that your not used to.
You can play any track,anywhere with 4-7 days of result charts and 20 to 45 minutes of
your time.By keeping track of a few things ,positional calls,2C BL,ESP.So you can kind
of see how track is playing.I was trying to attach a profile but having problems with it

[Lt1]

Late Kick when I start playing a track that I don't have a working model for I fall back on what I learned when I first started with Doc and that is to confine my play to the top 2 ep and 2 lp horses. This way you are covered no matter how the track maybe playinguntil you get your model. Peteman has given some good advice on establishing a track profile from result charts if the track has been running a current meet.

[Latekick]

Pete i did read Brohamers book but i am not sure what you are reffering to.
I have also had the idea of just starting a simple track profile but i remember eithe rin one of Brohamers tapes or something that was said in his Model manual, he said that just because a horse goes wire to wire doesnt mean he was the best ep horse, and he then gives an example of a horse that went wire to wire and was the 2nd ranked SP horse. Anyway i find it a bit cloudy to start a model of off a track profile espeically if im playing in a bigger type of tournament or even just on a big day of racing.

LT, i agree with you on what your saying but my only question would be, if you dont have a working model how would you know whether to bet the top 2 EP or LP if you have no idea how the track is playing.

[Lt1]

Let the odds and RDSS tiers guide you. Also if you do establish a track profile before hand you will have some idea what's happening. By dutching your bet you cover the bases especially if you are playing exotics.Also you are not starting a model off the profile. You start the model off your handicapping of the race you are playing.
Tim

[Peteman]

HI Late
"Pete i did read Brohamers book but i am not sure what you are reffering to."

Page 193 in Tom's book,he puts things better than I could about a track profile
its about 3 or 4 paragraphs,your not starting a model from the profile,but using it to
point out where winners are coming from at the first or second calls,the running style
bias at the different distances,to help you better decide what ratings to use.

[Peteman]

Here is Alb 5.5 Fur if I never played this track before the profile
will tell me a few things about the distance I'm looking for contender to be
about 2 lengths of leader at 2nd call and E types not to be Favored
for win ,and the winner to likely be in top 3 positions at 2nd call
maybe top 4 for place.Each distance most times will read a different
Any edge I can get on a unknown track I'll take with very little effort
took me about 40 min for all distances.But Tim make the best point
Let the odds be you guide! Good luck

Pete

[Peteman]

Some real good links to threads about profiles and models, there is a lot more that
I can not find,often one forgets how much good info this site haw to offer

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8917

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3963

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6053

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9485

[Latekick]

Pete, it looks like in every posted the players either model a different way then i do, or they just do not think it is all that necessary. For me, without a model i do not know how to use RDSS. The only way i know how to wager is from a model and this may be my downfall at times, and i really do need to work on learning different ways to use the methodology without completely relying on a model.

P.S. I am in an online tournament today with only two tracks,one being Belmont and one being Monmouth. I created a track profile from the last 3 days of racing at Monmouth because i had nothing else to go on. Help me interpret what kind of horses i SHOULD BE BETTING.
Dirt sprints: 1c: 3rd by 2 2c: 2nd by 1
Dirt Routes: 1c: 2nd by 1 2c: in the lead
Turf routes: 1c; 4th by 2 2c: 3rd by 2

Using this information what readouts or screens should i be looking at to my select my winners based off of this info? Also, if you would like to input on the ways of playing and using rdss without a brohamer model that would be helpful. I know a model is needed in almost every case, but everything i read in those links basically says if its not a long meet, and you cant get consitent races, its not worth it.

[Peteman]

Hi Latekick,

People have different styles and experience levels, all methods should work BL BL Tiers
Hats matchup is an some good stuff ,It can’t hurt to know who is advantaged by todays pace.And a lot of people have been doing this for a while, trying new ideas, seeing what works for them and discarding that what doesn’t fit for them.

To much info can also be confusing at times,so go at your own pace,You chose models
Ok lets go with it then. Models, profiles can give an insight to a pace bias at our track.
I do not use rdss.But software is a means to and end,to find good odds like Tim said.

I am not a good at typing, so send me a private message with your phone number,
I have an internet phone,so we can talk about profile interpertation

Pete