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Breeders' Cup 2014 - Saturday Nov 1 Saturday Breeders' Cup Races - Discussion

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Old 03-04-2016, 03:41 PM   #31
lone speed
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Join Date: Nov 2011
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Reviewing the Matchup and afterthought

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Originally Posted by lone speed View Post
$5 Million Race at a mile and a quarter on real dirt at Santa Anita race track.

Okay, trying to make amends for last year's Classic race when the three year old colt Will Take Charge got nosed out by Mucho Macho Man, who got a dream trip by Gary Stevens. Fantastic ride! old man

At first glance over the past performances, I noticed that there are a lot of closers in this year's edition and that many had faced sub-par early pace fractions for previous prep races leading to the Breeder's Cup Classic. In this full field of fourteen contenders, we do have Moreno who is a true front runner but this one was aimed for the Whitney Stakes in the first week of August. Whether this one has enough gas in the tank after a long campaign this year remains to be seen in this match-up.

In my two cents opinion, I narrowed this year's Classic Match-up to the leading three year-old colts: Shared Belief the Pacific Classic winner and morning line favorite; California Chrome- this year's Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner and the Pennsylvania Derby winner Bayern.

Shared Belief is coming up to this race beautifully, one sprint race ,and three route races with one at Del Mar's synthetic dirt and one important prep race over the Santa Anita dirt course in its last race. In California Chrome, I believe that Art Sherman wished he had gotten one more route prep race into California Chrome.

Bayern's last race early pace fractions stands out for my own analysis as Bayern went 47.8 and 110.8 for the early pace fractions. Bayern burned the second fraction in 23.0 seconds flat!!!! This is a huge (and hidden move! ) turn of foot especially when one preps for a longer race like a mile and a quarter.

So the key factor in this matchup is whether Bayern can get a mile and a quarter with his early speed to get position with Moreno drawn inside on his flank and have enough in the tank to withstand the late moves by Shared Belief and California Chrome. Should be a great tactical race.

Good skills
The 2014 Breeder's Cup Classic was two years ago, but I enjoy reviewing past races to evaluate. I had written some private messages to Bill Lyster and to Ted Craven about Jim Bradshaw's "Marathon Match-Up" by using the mile times of races to apply the match - up. I commented about the great and extensive work that Bill Lyster was posting about Bradshaw's marathon method. But somehow I overlooked one horse in this 2014 BC Classic Match up. Toast of New York.

Originally, I concluded with Shared Belief, California Chrome and Bayern as my final contenders. Bayern's last paceline stood out as he "blitzed"second turn in 23.0 flat followed with another 23.6 fraction from the 6F marker to the mile marker. (American Pharoah ran almost the same fractions in the 2015 Travers Stakes while losing to Keen Ice in the race. Hmmm, both horses are trained by Bob Baffert)

In re-evaluating the race, I zoomed in on the Pacific Classic race won by Shared Belief. Toast of New York finished second in the race but let's focus on the mile part of the race as dictated by Jim Bradshaw.

Bradshaw suggested that it's best to evaluate marathon races like the Classic by using the mile time of the races. Many are aware that mile and 1/4 races are not great pacelines to evaluate the match up in many Sartin programs. So let's focus on the mile part of the race and not on the whole race.

The contenders: the highlighted pacelines were my original pacelines with the exception of overlooking Toast of New York.

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Let's review the 2014 Pacific Classic but let's focus only on the mile time of the race as suggested by Jim Bradshaw.
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Old 03-04-2016, 03:52 PM   #32
lone speed
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I used Thoromation to evaluate the race; and using the highlighted pacelines:

Bayern- last paceline
California Chrome- 3rd paceline using only the mile fractions of the Preakness
Shared Belief- 2nd pacelne using only the mile fractions of the Pacific Classic
Toast of New York-last paceline using only the mile fractions of the Pacific Classic


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The first screen came up SP--no surprise with Bayern's great Sustained paceline
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the exdc screen
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and the Thoromation screen
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Jim Bradshaw knew what he was talking about!!

P.S. My respects for the passing of Shared Belief
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Old 03-04-2016, 04:07 PM   #33
lone speed
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Inquiry objection after the start of the race.

We are all aware of the incidents that happened after the starting gate opened and the objections of the stewards' decisions. But my posts, two years later, are about the importance of Jim Bradshaw's Marathon Matchup method by using the mile fractions for the match up analyses.

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Old 03-05-2016, 05:12 PM   #34
lone speed
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mile fractions within mile and 1/4 distance races

Here is the pp of American Pharoah
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Now we compare the mile fractions of American Pharoah from the 2015 Travers Stakes with Bayern's race in the 2014 Pennsylvania Derby. The pace fractions and turn time are eerily "Identical."

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APharoah: 48.1 for 4 furlongs followed by a 23.2 turn time; followed by a 23.6 fraction to the mile marker

Bayern: 47.4 for 4 furlongs followed by a 23.0 turn time; followed by a 23.6 fraction to the mile marker


Anyways, we move on...thanks for reading...

Last edited by lone speed; 03-05-2016 at 05:16 PM. Reason: corrected fractions
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