BEL June 5 - Race 8

[Ted Craven]

Here is my model for Belmont sprint races today so far:

BEL.xls

Makes a good case in the final dirt sprint of the day for #7 and #5 in Win position, and #9 in Place as counter-energy. Top F1 and 2nd call are 4 for 4 so far (e.g. also EPR and F1 and SC CBL).



At ML Odds of 8-1 and 12-1 respectively, may both be bettable (i.e. for 4-1 net minimum, though would not be surprised to see #7 drop below 5-1)

Good luck everyone! Nice day, so far.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Router, favourite wins - not in my mix.



Top 2 CR wins all 5 dirt sprints, though all were favourites and low payers except for $11 race #1 winner.

[SilentRun]

I bet 7 to win. I thought that was a good play.
Then @ 2MTP TX was flashing 3-5-6-8. Not a good sign for the 7 so I covered with a superbox which really did not buy me much.

Ernie

[Ted Craven]

Rich,

Hmmm, looks like we both posted about the same race, unbeknownst: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...30&postcount=2

Both got beat by the same 'rascal'

Oh well,

Ted

[gkstein]

When I worked this race with RDSS I came up with a similar result to the ones presented. The 3 horse (Bribon) is a Grade 1 winner is there anything that I missed when I selected my running lines. All of Bribons running lines were for 8 furlongs, not the distance of the race, which was 6 furlongs. Bribon ended up being the fourth choice for RDSS. Using an old fashioned racing form analysis I would have ranked him higher.

[Ted Craven]

George,

I can't fault your analysis, and my mistake was in disrespecting as strong a 'Class' horse (G1 horse) as Bribon in a bona-fide G1 stakes, despite his recent lack of sprint history. The #2 was scratched. I think you'll find your readouts start to make more sense when you eliminate down to 5 horses (using the Perceptor Total/Line Score/Total Energy combination on the Primary Factors screen). Adding Bribon back in, as you did off his best Total Energy/Perceptor Total), you get this Summary (or you could eliminate the #6 with no effective change):



Bribon ranks 3rd on BL/BL but co-1st on VDC, one of our 'magic numbers'. His recent works are stellar, he is fit, his CR Class Rank towers over the rest of the field, and despite appearing to be strictly a router, he shows a lifetime 71% in-the-money at dirt sprints. Plus he was effectively co-favourite at bet-time.

Even so, given the evidence and available odds, I don't think I would have switched bets, but your readouts are more realistic than my original ones.



You asked me about picking pacelines which resulted in BL/BL ranks which more closely matched the CR order. I would not recommend universally approaching it like that, especially in the much more common lower class races. In cases where you're seeking an excuse to represent a horse from other than its most recent history (i.e. Bribon), acknowledging the CR factor (recent APV Earnings + recent consistency) along with bet-time odds sometimes comes usefully into play. Sometimes a 'freshened' CR horse with good preps is a candidate for Place or Show, if not Win.

As a guide to horses for a Pick 4 leg, you were probably right. As an analysis for a win pool bet, the odds on the other high-ranked BL/BL and VDC horses looked too good to me.

Ted

[gkstein]

Thanks for all the info. I appreciate the help.