Queens Plate 2016

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Hoof 11

Post positions are irrelevant in the Queen’s Plate due to the long stretch run before the first turn, the jock’s have ample time to position the horse.

Sandy Hawley said just that at the post position draw breakfast yesterday

[Bill V.]

I just went through the race. Here are my preliminary thoughts

Woodbine is a whole new experience for me so I want to
feel this out .


Queens Plate

I am looking for Route lines
with a speed rating as close to at least an 80

Just skimming I think I have to relax
the within 1 furlong guideline

Days Since last race also is relaxed
I would prefer plus lines
against winners and as a 3 year old

Horse 1 Line 2 73 SR Best ? only 1 win
Horse 2 Line 1 70 SR Best ? 2 wins
Horse 3 Line 1 79 SR Suspicious of the 90 SR maiden win ? Only 1 win
Horse 4 Line 2 85 SR MS line. Excuse line 1 trouble 2 wins
Horse 5 Line 1 76 SR 9.0 distance = Plus 1 win
Horse 6 Line 3 85 SR Kee Turf 9.0 distance ability = Plus
Horse 7 No Line 69 SR 9.0 distance but against maidens 1 win
Horse 8 No Line 71 SR Distance and Competition level issues, 1 win
Horse 9 Line 2 77 SR Recent enough to forgive line 1. 2 wins
Horse 10 Line 1 81 SR 5 wins !
Horse 11 Line 1 82 SR 7.0 return after layoff Distance ability is a question. 2 Wins
Horse 12 Line 1 85 SP Turf Line Tepa ability is a question. 2 wins
Horse 13 Line 1 80 SR Actually line 2 is rated better but line 1 is at 9.0 3 wins


Good Skill
Bill V.

[Hoof 11]

Seeing that half of the field are front runners, none of which are particularly faster than one another through the first 2 fractions, other than Amis Gizmo, and i really don’t think Contreras will put this horse on the lead based on the distance. I really can’t see the first two fractions being any faster than 24 – 48, but with the congestion up front the pace may be contested by several horses. All On Red, Sir Dudley Digges, and Shakhimat have shown the ability to lay down quicker fractions, but those all came on Dirt and Turf surfaces with a fast DTV. With the weather forcasted to be hot and sunny on Sunday, i really don’t foresee the Tapeta playing fast. Having said all of that, i think a few of these horses will force the pace which in turn will set things up for a horse coming from just off the pace.

Looking at what has transpired this season on the Tapeta, generally speaking, horses have to be within 2 ½ lengths of the pace to be successful. But over the last week or so that has changed in some cases, we are seeing horses coming from farther back and winning.

Shakhimat, My Name Is Jim, and Amis Gizmo are the only horses to have success at 9F, with Amis Gizmo’ victory coming in well below his form cycle, this colt still has more to give leading up to today.

The lone filly in the field, Gamble’s Ghost, is the big closer in the race, but i am not entirely sure about her form cycle, she could be heading in a downward cycle, i could be wrong.

The other big closer in the field is Leavem In Malibu, the only horse in the field with a time of 1:43.5 at 8.5F, but this came on a fast surface early in the spring. But after looking at his works, this colt looks ready to come banging.

If you project All On Red’ 8F victory of 1:36.2 at Aqueduct to 8.5F, you are looking at 1:42.5, but this was on a fast Dirt surface, but it is still something to ponder.

I am still mulling this race over.

[Tim Y]

This is the "lightest" raced field I have reviewed in many a year. One has to dismiss any of the very fast Aqueduct times coming in when comparing to the much slower Tapeta. Even quality fields rarely get past the 1:13 to 1:14 mark at the second call in routes here this season.

Three year olds with median percentages coming in below 67.1 are very suspect (usually turfers changing surfaces)....and it appears, SO FAR, that few of these are on the improve as the distances have increased. In recent memory, only Inglorious came into this race with % medians in the high 66 range and won it.... as most of the true contenders are higher in the 67 range

Will take more analysis to come to any conclusions as, SO FAR, this one looks wide open.

[Tim Y]

Shakamut is getting earlier with the last three races as the Pace of the race has remained close to the same....May suggest distance limitations


66.4 67.8 68.0 NOT good coming in at 10 panels

[Hoof 11]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

One has to dismiss any of the very fast Aqueduct times coming in when comparing to the much slower Tapeta. Even quality fields rarely get past the 1:13 to 1:14 mark at the second call in routes here this season.

Jim Bannon seems to disagree with you.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Hoof 11

Jim Bannon seems to disagree with you.

Jim and I are both members of the elections and planning committees of the Canadian Horse Racing Hall of Fame. He is a classic handicapper and a good one at that, BUT he and I (probably everyone here as well) DIFFER strongly on the importance of pace alone. We have discussed various races from these two points of view over the years and remain in different camps.

Once at a seminar I was to speak at on Wager Creation, he was talking to Jim Mazur and my name was mentioned. Mazur said "and this guy is a Sartin handicapper?" to which Jim jokingly responded: "Well we won't hold that against him!."

YEARS and Years of collecting Aqueduct data have proven to me ONE consistent thing: Aqueduct (and Philly) lines transfer FAR too fast to other tracks. NO colt in this race (and I would wager on it) could survive much beyond the mile marker on Tapeta after a pace like that Aqueduct line.

[Tim Y]

If you look at those lines OUT of kilter with the others: All on Red's second and Ami's Gizmo (ON the older Polytrack, NOT the very loose and unpacked Tapeta) 3rd line back as a two year old. Two year olds run very differently at three (usually at a later % median). IN the case of Ami's, the last three 6 furlong pace times have gotten SLOWER.

One of the oddities this season is the WATERING of the course. I spoke with two trainers the other day at the Plate post position draw and asked if the watering was due to any kickback and they both responded; "No." The track is playing too loose and tiring right now, so the water allows it to bind more for a fair surface. I went to the Tapeta website and there is no mention of that kind of maintenance.

The ONE thing that people should learn in the Match Up. You have to have as common a YARDSTICK as possible to compare one horse's effort to the next, you cannot use a two year old's line or a line from a completely different surface and pretend they are equivalent NO matter how accurate an inter-track variant is.

Another thing about Woodbine is the turf course and the "going stick." It's MAXIMUM reading is 12.0 and the last few weeks it has registered 11.8 to 12.0 and the front end has done better than usual (the longest turf stretch in North America usually gives the late movers a great chance to move up). Make sure you know what it is before doing any handicapping on that surface.

[Hoof 11]

A few points to consider...

Colts and geldings carry the standard weight of 126 pounds while filly Gamble’s Ghost, second as the favorite in the Woodbine Oaks gets a 5 pound allowance.

Yesterday’s Dominion Day Stakes 10F

Fractional Times

25.30 – 49.52 – 1:13.64 – 1:38.64 – 2:04.06

Both front runners gassed in the stretch, leaving the door open to Melmich, the big closer who overcame a 3 ½ length deficit and won by 1 ½ lengths. The surface doesn’t appear to be all that much slower when comparing the times over the last 6 years, mind you Melmich is a little more mature.

Queen’s Plate Final Times

2015 – 2:03.45
2014 – 2:03.94
2013 – 2:04.72
2012 – 2:01.99
2011 – 2:02.63
2010 – 2:04.89

[Ted Craven]

I merged the 2 Queen's Plate Discussions.

Ted