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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 04-10-2010, 06:49 PM   #11
Charlie D
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You can't run from off pace if you don't have the ability to do so though TFM.

There were no Zen's, Street Sense types in this field and the Nobles Promise that ran behing Lookin last time probably just didn't turn up today.
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Old 04-10-2010, 07:28 PM   #12
tfm
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They went 1-2-3 around the track. Nothing was closing in that race today. The winner got passed and came again. This after running a 22.65 opening quarter. What else is there to say about the race? The winner is certainly not a freak and the runner up showed us he wasn't much in the Tampa Bay Derby.

All the POLY haters really need to look at this race (and so many others like it) and get a sense of how wrong they are about POLY being the unfair surface.

This type of **** is an outright disgrace. This isn't the AQU INNER, and this is a G1 race. To think that the reason the closers didn't fire is because they were not good enough today is to REALLY miss the point.
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Old 04-10-2010, 07:39 PM   #13
Charlie D
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Which closers do you think should have closed in this race tfm???
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Old 04-10-2010, 08:12 PM   #14
Charlie D
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Take a look at Bluegrass tfm

Decent Turfers and decent Dirt horses struggling to get in a blow and 80 dollar horse takes it.

You may as well have put your money in slot machine.




We have had poly in UK a lot longer than US and there is not one Grade 1 race run on the surface.

Epsom. Ascot, York , Sandown etc are not rushing out to buy and install synthetics and change years of racing tradition.
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Old 04-10-2010, 11:26 PM   #15
Bill V.
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place

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Old 04-12-2010, 10:12 PM   #16
Neil S.
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Although Wasted Tears winning the Jenny Wiley was my best bet of the day as the lone early who also happened to be coming out of FPLR, I took a chance on the winner in the Arkansas Derby for very close to the same reason. Although his last race was a win on the SA lawn it was the FPLR and at the price it was worth a shot. What a shot it was as a 20 dollar win wager brought back a $346 profit.
I've been looking at these situations for the last few weeks and making one horse bets it has been an astonishing 14 for 35 with a net profit of $660 making $20 win bets on each candidate. Granted most of the winners pay in the 7-8 dollar range, but if you are making one horse bets and are very patient you can do quite well.
My criteria has been that the horse who ran the FPLR last race had to have won the race. When looking at matchups I always seemed to find that the true ability of the runner came in races where it won rather than when it ran a bang up third against a tremendous pace.
I don't know if the results are a short term phenomenon or a genuine winning angle long term, but my confidence is bolstered when looking at a lot of Richie's example races in the match up and Hat sections where many of the winners actually had the same qualifications as I have been looking at and have produced nice profits.

To be continued.......

Neil
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Old 04-12-2010, 11:12 PM   #17
tfm
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me too

not only did I bet the winner of the Arkansas Derby but I had the cold exacta, triple and super. I also hit the winner of the Bluegrass and had that exacta, triple and super as well. In fact, AFTER THE FACT, I have ALL the winners.

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Old 04-12-2010, 11:31 PM   #18
Neil S.
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Normally I wouldn't dignify your comments with a reply. Having posted here on a number of occasions my veracity has never been questioned before and therefore shouldn't be in this situation. I certainly wouldn't waste my time or the time of the people who read this board with false claims.
If you read what I actually posted you will notice that this winner was by far the biggest score of what has been a limited sampling of FPLR horses that won their last race. Obviously the timing of my post would scream "Red Boarding" and for that I am to blame, but it doesn't change the result.
Someone claimed that the Bluegrass winner had a similar profile but I did not see that in my readouts.
Based on the tone in all of your posts you are bitter about the overall result of both Grade I events and cannot believe that it was possible to get either winner. So be it. I appreciate and respect the comments of all of the contributors here and try to learn from each of them. Surely the FPLR is not my idea as I indicated in my post. I merely added my personal observation about winners being more reliable from a match up point of view.

When and if you are fortunate enough to make a nice score I'm sure that you would want congratulations and good wishes rather than sarcasm from someone who is a sore loser.

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Old 04-13-2010, 02:09 AM   #19
Charlie D
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These races are put up well before the race so people have plenty of time to get thier thoughts, picks in before the race. With this in mind, I can understand tfm's comments and tbh redboarding does seem to have become a favourite past time for members of racing forums.
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Old 04-13-2010, 08:07 AM   #20
gl45
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NS,
the FPLR is, "...a genuine winning angle long term,". Here is a quote from Ray Taulbot article dated July,1956 in American TURF Monthly.

"....despite the factors which influence the effectiveness of time, it is surprising how frequently the horse that run in the fastest run race last start turns in a bang up effort today. Since our present purpose is to debunk the claim that time or speed is of small or no importance to the handicapping problem, let's examine a day's racing, using a crude method of time as it applie to the last race.
In short, we will accept the time figure for the last race at face value, disregarding beaten lengths up to and including 15.
I have before me the racing paper for Thursday, May 10th. 1956. Beginning with the first race at Jamaica we shall accept the horse in each race that run last start in the race where the time was fastest for the distance......."

In the article, Ray explain the FPLR of every winner in every race from the first to the last (race#8), and conclude with:

".....So with a very crude time method we come up with five clean-cut winners out of five plays, or six winners if we accept Hide Out over Pucker Up, an animal that had been idle since last October....."

So the concept of FPLR is been out since 1956, and it is a profitable angle.

Way to go NS.
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