Following the Derby Prep races using Sartin tools only

[trotman]

Atkinsrr what really appeals to me at Keeneland is handicapping the trainers and I understand you on the polycrap but then again I handicap a lot of Woodbine, for 1 the full fields which adds value and I can pretty well narrow a field down and zero in on the contenders. IMO the Woodbine poly plays fairly true of all the poly tracks.

[lone speed]

Well,I haven't posted in this thread in a month....so here we go....It will be exactly one month to the Kentucky Derby and we have some big Derby prep races this weekend. The Santa Anita Derby, Illinois Derby, and the Wood Memorial will be run this Saturday. Creative Cause will race without blinkers in the Santa Anita Derby....the trainer is following the prep races that Baffert took with Silver Charm......

Some interesting developments in recent prep races.....Big shocker in the Louisana Derby but no derby contenders will come out of this race. In the Florida Derby, we had some interesting turn of events as Take Charge Indy stole the race with some soft early fractions as the first two early runners ended up finishing one-two at the wire while the early Derby favorite Union Rags seemed content to work on his late kick for the Derby but after analyzing the race, some conclusions. The Florida Derby was not a strong race but Take Charge Indy must be consider a major contender in one month. Union Rags will be this year's Uncle Mo... a false favorite with no energy credentials.. Todd Pletcher finds his horse, El Padrino on the earnings bubble as El Padrino is currently ranked 19th...Maybe in hindsight, Pletcher shouldn't have ran El Padrino in that optional claiming race off the layoff.....

Daddy Long Leggs will ship from Dubai, after winning the Dubai Derby, but come on....seriously??? those early fractions even after adjusting for the Meydan synthetic race course seem too soft....from Trakus...the pace fractions were 26.37 50.76 115.40 139.84 and 158.34 for the mile and 3/16th race....

[mikesal57]

Will we ever see another Triple Crown Champion?

I doubt it....
In the 70's and prior horse racing was a true sport , where people had pride and lived for the sport...
Since then , its turned into a business....
Get a horse , run a few good races and then syndicate them before they fall apart..
What a shame

mike

[Bill V.]

I'm with you Mike

These races are a joke
Look at Union Rags

Why crank the horse up to win the Floriday Derby ?
It already had enough graded eanings to qualify so the race meant nothing.

As goofy as the Secrateriat disney movie was I enjoyed
seeing how the owner and trainer did not accept losing any race

In regards to a triple crown Smarty Jones could have done it
I didn't get a good view of the race from Parx ( philly)
that day and I could not hear a thing wiith the crowd roaring.
My late friend Mark for years told me Smarty Jones only lost to Birdsong by less
than a lenght for one reason- jockey error
I do not blame Smarty Jones on ability
a front running PA bred
What a story and magical moment in my life .

[lone speed]

The Santa Anita Derby was a decent race visually, but on figures,it was very questionable.... The Wood and the Illinois Derby were even weaker.... So now, we will await to see how Dullahan, the half-brother to Mine That Bird runs in the Blue Grass on synthetic race course and how Bodemeister and Hansen run in the Arkansas Derby next week.

This year's crop, the early speed contenders are dropping by the wayside... Maybe, trainers are tired of setting up the race for deep closers after all these years and have wised up ;and now they are chasing fat checks in shorter distance races.

Early contenders with one month to go are (IMHO)

Bodemeister off the San Felipe
CreativeCause off the San Felipe and BC Juvenile
I'll Have Another off the RBLewis Stakes
Daddy Nose Best off the Sunland Derby
El Padrino off the optional claimer race
Take Charge Indy off the same optional claimer race
Mark Valeski off the Risen Star
Union Rags off the Fountain of Youth and BC Juvenile

Good Skills to all....

[trotman]

Not an endorsement but after this past weekend don't toss Hansen yet. If the Breeders Cup is what the future could be then IMO the last was a workout for Churchill with it's paper clip tight turns and position is everything.

[atkinsrr]

yea trotman don't toss him until we get the pp's and run the numbers but if his %med is
over 68.0 he could be in for some problems in the stretch...I haven't been a big fan of Dullihan...his 3 lifetime dirt races are all horrible but anything can happen at 1 1/4..i.e.Mine That Bird...plus he's got Desormeaux who has won 3 Derbys..he will really be in elite company with a 4th one ...it's now getting interesting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[trotman]

Atkinsrr no disrespect but as Jim the Hat would say, it's the horse that runs the race. I think the workouts over Churchill will tell us a lot. I have found that Churchill for a classic such as the Derby those who have shown a win combined with works over that surface have proven positive but do not confuse this with a horse that is over the top and is regressing, yes their works on paper may look ok and the media, you know those experts will have you so confused because they can't tell the difference between a meaningful work and a gallop they will tell you anything, ha ha. Trust your gut they have never been that far and the race many times offers no value for unproven talent. I will look at it but chances are there won't be a bet.

[atkinsrr]

Jim was right it's the HORSE that runs the race...I mentioned Dullihan/Desormeaux cause I think that he is one of those closing PLODDERS that only wins when all the speed quits & all the other closers are getting too tired to close..if Kent can keep him out of trouble
it could happen...but like I said gotta wait until I run the numbers and see who rates the best on turn time and hidden energy (sp)...I'm just wondering if Bodemeister can run
"Spend a Buck" fractions and wire this field...won't know anything until fri nite before the race.........................

[trotman]

atkinsrr I would think Kent quits before the horse, just an observation. In my mind this year looks to be one of the more competitive fields and that being said I might think that as a quick overview I would look to see who has won at Churchill or top three. A few weeks ago it was Union Rags and who else so I would look towards 2yr olds who broke their maiden before October and who have sucessfully run two turns and not neccesarily have won. Once I have the workouts and post positions then I will look at the numbers. The Soft Focus as Michael Pizzolla called it where you don't handicap but observe
is so essential IMO.