Anybody looking at Tampa March 7, 2014 - Races 1 & 7

[The Pook]

Would be interested in an opinion on Tampas first. The favourite #1 is dropping way down and going back on dirt. I took him out as no match for the fulcrum pace of #3. My contenders are 5,3,6. If the 1 fires I'm dead. Any thoughts?

Pook

[The Pook]

Oh well….I hung it out there and what I suspected might happen, did happen. That #1 wasn't (early) recent enough for me. But wait….oh yeah, there is another race 18 minutes away.

Pook

[Ted Craven]

Here's a fun picture! Using EVERY one of that horse's last 10 lines, 9 of them are better than EVERYBODY else's recent best performances

Together with the class drop and the 1/2 odds, that's as good a measure as I can think of to PASS the race, versus betting against the favourite ...

Right about the next 18 minutes part!

Ted

[The Pook]

Good point Ted……..where were you 10 minutes before the race?

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Good point Ted……..where were you 10 minutes before the race?

All kidding aside, learning about horses like this one the Ted points out is not a

"tip" Its a big step in learning to win at a worthwhile level. If your betting
to show off to your buds then play around and look for "tips" before the race.
If you are serious about making a good profit I suggest reading as much as you can about the art of passing races or using "other pools"


Good Skill
Bill

[The Pook]

Bill

I'm new to the site and just thought I'd see who was out there and to see how getting a conversation going about a race worked. I'm not looking for tips or anything.

Pook

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Bill

I'm new to the site and just thought I'd see who was out there and to see how getting a conversation going about a race worked. I'm not looking for tips or anything.

Pook

Thanks Pook
Welcome to pace and cap. Good to see you here

Bill


___

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Here's a fun picture! Using EVERY one of that horse's last 10 lines, 9 of them are better than EVERYBODY else's recent best performances

Together with the class drop and the 1/2 odds, that's as good a measure as I can think of to PASS the race, versus betting against the favourite ...

Right about the next 18 minutes part!

Ted

Attachment 36831

That's pretty cool Ted.

[Ted Craven]

Beautiful opportunity to bet against the #8 (IMO). What will happen to the #8 when it is asked to run against the pace of 22.8 45.4 which the #6 can set all the time?







Plus, all those other earlies chasing him does not help.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

OK - just my opinion!

#8 wins anyway.

FWIW, and related to Pook's questions in another thread about when to PASS races (i.e. pass on the favourite): I saw weakness in the odds-on favourite here:

1. was not ranked far and above (on BL) the next tier horse
2. was an Early (arguably a Fighter) who had not shown he could win against fractions to be set by another horse (#6); AND an Early among 4 or 5 other earlies!
3. the Other Than Earlies (7-4-3) don't look so bad - even the Early #1 can stay out of the suicide duel for the lead
4. was only going to pay (did pay) $3.80 if I call it right. Meh ...

If that's not an opportunity - I am very willing to learn more! It's an example of a race I want to be in: 8+ runners, older horses, some 'defects' to a top ranked odds-on favourite = odds on everyone else are higher. Lose I may (and did) - but I want my fair share of the mutuels when these favourites lose.

FWIW.

Ted