AP 6/22 - Race 8 Analysis

[Bill V.]

These readouts are from the Entropy program This is not about the program
but about the concept
My take on Ted's comment that the 9 would be taken down

The 9 is a Early energy excretion horse

Here are my contenders




When I see a Early energy horse. In theory early energy horse must have
a lead and hold it. If they are pressured or have another horse with a comparable EP rating. tt better have a big advantage in total energy. or else its chances to win drop sharply.


Here is the phase 1 readout in Entropy





Look how the 9 and 5 both have
the same 80 EP (MP) rating . Look how low the 9 is on the LP compared to the 5 .
Where is the 9 going to get more energy to outbreak the 5?

Meanwhile the 5 is inside of the 9 in post position.

For those using RDSS you will see different EP and LP phase 1 readouts.
This is because entropy phase 1 uses the dream race to make adjustments
What you see in RDSS is different because its using different adjustment
as outlined in the book Pace Makes The Race

Speaking of the dream race, again knowing the 9 is a Early horse
Its not a good sign to have the lowest dream race total energy





Anyway, the point here is to show the concept of the energy available to each horse against its total energy

Thanks
Bill

[Ryan.p.coli]

Bill,

I think there is some serious value in this last post. A couple things I kept in mind as well.

When 2 E horses have similar EPR's, one must have a significant edge in total energy to outlast the other. Very actionable and data driven.

I guess my only question would be, what constitutes a "significant edge?" If the highest TE for the best E is 165, would that be "significant enough" (in general obviously) of an edge over a 163.5?

[Bill V.]

Hi Ryan

I am not sure. In all my studies I have never really done much with the total
energy readout, Total energy has always been a high is best readout.
So the compounded rating of the top 5 has generally been what I pay attention to.

I use the total energy readout as a class measure
I did a race for a few people yesterday. It was a 7 horse 100 Grade 3 stakes race.
There were 4 E energy types 3 of the E's had 7 or 8 QSP
the other was a E5. The raw total energy spread between these 4 horses
was a high of 166.55 to a low of 162.69
The 4 E horses were horse 1 5 6 7 The 6 horse was the top total energy
and had a 4 point advantage on EP (phase 1) the other 3 E' types all had 90 EPR's The 5 was the low total energy and the 7 had the worst LPR of only 82.

Thoromation called the race 6 1 4 I bet the 6 because of the 4 point advantage it had over the other E types and it had the highest total energy.
I bypassed the 1 because I figured it even being inside the 6 it would use more energy to keep ahead of the 6. The 1 and the 6 were both E8's
The 4 won the race as my second win bet. looking at the result chart
all the E horse finished at the back of the pack

[mowens33]

Bill, thanks for the post, this was a a good example of Pace makes the Race!!

Mike