Santa Anita Derby-April 6,2013

[lone speed]

Saturday...Santa Anita Derby Day

Here is the link to the pps..

link: http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...ate=2013-04-06

This race should be an interesting race. It seems that Bob Baffert controls most of the "Ace" cards at the table in this game/race.

I hope that this race is not like the Florida Derby last week. Orb won the race but the time of the race and the lack of efforts by Itsmyluckyday and of course, Shanghai Bobby were disappointing....

I was going to delete this message post...Hear the Ghost scratched and is out of the Derby trail. But I decided to post the race, anyways. This race's history is rich in tradition and is an important prep race for the Kentucky Derby and we don't have more entrants in this year's edition.

In this race, we have one sprinter stretching out; a deep, deep closer getting added distance; and a couple of proven, graded stakes winner in route races, trying to redeem themselves and to gather enough points to be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May at Churchill,Kentucky.

Good skills!!

[patecatl]

I had hear the ghost until I found out he was scratched. Now I think its between Flashback and Superninetynine. Super99 is going to have the early lead, he may or may not be able to hold it. If anyone can close in on him I think its Tiz a Minister. Im going with Super99 because Im going 2 back on the pacelines, I think at the Rebel Stakes Super99 had an off day and was squeezed. If Super99 is on his game I think he's got it. My Picks

SuperNinetyNine and TizAMinister

[lone speed]

I have always had a fondness for the Santa Anita Derbies; I witnessed Affirmed winning this race as a young lad. At the time, I wasn't aware that I would be witnessing a Triple Crown winner.

I thought with so much certainty that Ferdinand was going to beat Snow Chief in the Santa Anita Derby as well as in the Kentucky Derby.; but Ferdinand finished third to Snow Chief and Icy Groom. I was so perplexed.....

It would be years later that I would learn that the great Charlie Whittingham used the Santa Anita Derby as a prep race for the Kentucky Derby and Whittingham sacrificed his great 3 year old filly Hidden Light as a workout companion for Ferdinand during the week of the Derby. Both horses were owned by Howard Keck. The last workout before the Kentucky Derby, I recalled that Ferdinand had worked a smashing 5 furlongs in 58 flat or so.

Whittingham was the master in getting his horses ready run their best for certain major races and he was also a master in getting his horses ready to run off long layoffs through workouts in the morning.

Since then, I always try to approach certain races with precaution as it might be a prep race for a major objective race further down the road. If a horse ranked on top of my readouts and it did not fired in the race, I do not second guess my workup of the race or the pacelines that I had chosen. I just move on and stick to my analysis.

It could have bounced off the major effort or it wasn't fully recovered to duplicate the last paceline, it might need some time. It could have been an unfavorable match up in the race at hand. Anyways, thanks for reading.

Back to the Santa Anita Derby....

[PeteC]

Hey LS, thanks for posting and thanks for the reminiscing. This is a favorite race of mine too.

As far as today's running, Flashback is my top pick. He finished best in the FPLR after fighting with Golden. The only potential upsetter I see is Super, if you can ignore the last race. I still favor Flashback. How do you see it?

[lone speed]

Hey Pete!!

Thanks for posting your comments.

I see this race coming down to two horses, Goldencents and Super99.

The outcome of the race depends on the jockey, Kevin Krigger. Does he keep cool and lay off Super99 or does he panic and press the pace...I keep focusing on all the six furlong workout of Goldencents. Look at all those 1:10 workouts!!! Is this a beast?? What are the odds of one trainer being blessed two years in a row...?? I could be wrong but Goldencents has worked out faster in the morning than he has raced in his last two races. It seem like two one mile workouts. This one needs at least a first or second place finish in this race to move on or else, it's the Preakness..

These are my two win contenders..

Good skills...

[tom]

I'll try just looking at positions, most recent race at 1m16 or longer, best finish.

Looking at the race in PP order, then sorted by 2nd call position.
Looks crowded up front, so I'm going other than early.
Power will be forced to either run faster early and engage the leaders, or accept a running position further back in the pack.

How do the two closers look?

Sorted by 2nd call, both will be in their comfort zones in this match up.
Dirty is not in this class and has not run in a while.
I will go with Tiz.

[noddub62]

My wager would be on Tiz to pick up the peices after after the earlies beat each other up.

Should be a good event.

Bud

[PeteC]

Originally Posted by lone speed

Hey Pete!!

Thanks for posting your comments.

I see this race coming down to two horses, Goldencents and Super99.

The outcome of the race depends on the jockey, Kevin Krigger. Does he keep cool and lay off Super99 or does he panic and press the pace...I keep focusing on all the six furlong workout of Goldencents. Look at all those 1:10 workouts!!! Is this a beast?? What are the odds of one trainer being blessed two years in a row...?? I could be wrong but Goldencents has worked out faster in the morning than he has raced in his last two races. It seem like two one mile workouts. This one needs at least a first or second place finish in this race to move on or else, it's the Preakness..

These are my two win contenders..

Good skills...

Well done man, you had the "Hat-nella" 1st and 3rd with your two picks....Nice payoff too!

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by PeteC

Well done man, you had the "Hat-nella" 1st and 3rd with your two picks....Nice payoff too!

Thanks Pete...

It is nice when things work out. Now if all the races were that easy to decipher.

Here is the result charts: