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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-15-2014, 10:38 PM   #1
Ted Craven
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Arlington Beverly D G1 Stakes (8/16/2014)

Race 9 - Beverly D Stakes - G1

We apply the same relative analysis re the European horses and their TrackMaster Speed and Race Class ratings as in the Arlington Million (see --> here), and arrive at this:

Name:  AP0816-9.0.png
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Name:  AP0816-9.bl.png
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Betting Options
Win: 2-11
Exacta Box: 2-11-4

Good luck/skill!

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-15-2014 at 10:46 PM.
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Old 08-16-2014, 12:36 PM   #2
Bill Lyster
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I agree. Using The Hat's marathon method the 2 and 5 have two of the fastest mile times at 133.8 with Real Solution, the DQ'd winner from last year posting 133.6 and 133.2 mile times from his last and 4th back. Closing running style could hurt due to lack of early speed. Hard to tell where the Euros settle in their races. I suspect that since the 2 and 3 have rarely finished in the 2nd half of their fields that they both press moderate to slow paces which I expect here.
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Old 08-16-2014, 03:45 PM   #3
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Oops, my bad. This was supposed to have been a commentary on the Million, not the Beverly D.


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I agree. Using The Hat's marathon method the 2 and 5 have two of the fastest mile times at 133.8 with Real Solution, the DQ'd winner from last year posting 133.6 and 133.2 mile times from his last and 4th back. Closing running style could hurt due to lack of early speed. Hard to tell where the Euros settle in their races. I suspect that since the 2 and 3 have rarely finished in the 2nd half of their fields that they both press moderate to slow paces which I expect here.
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Old 08-16-2014, 05:40 PM   #4
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Any last thoughts from the assembled multitude at Saratoga?
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Old 08-16-2014, 06:19 PM   #5
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Ted, good call on the 2!


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Old 08-16-2014, 06:50 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Race 9 - Beverly D Stakes - G1

We apply the same relative analysis re the European horses and their TrackMaster Speed and Race Class ratings as in the Arlington Million (see --> here), and arrive at this:

Attachment 38183

Attachment 38182

Betting Options
Win: 2-11
Exacta Box: 2-11-4

Good luck/skill!

Ted
Hey Ted. I still don't know how you came up with the winner#2, but since I was ahead for the day, by $100, I decided to blindly trust you on that one, and I invested my $100 in the exacta you proposed. I am so glad I trusted your skills. Thank you very, very much. You made my day
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Old 08-16-2014, 07:24 PM   #7
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Ted actually had the 4 not the 5 in the exa, the reason I Know I had a 5 dollar box with the 4. but it worked. Nice score!!
Had the 2 $20 on the nose

Thanks, Ted!!
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Old 08-16-2014, 08:53 PM   #8
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I was in a rush to play...and was thinking of Betting the 2 and 11 to win...then I noticed that the #5 was the favorite at a minute or so to post, and had a very good trainer...so I just made the bet, hoping that the #2 or #11 would beat the favorite...without even realizing that #4 was the other horse that Ted had suggested. Anyway...sometimes a mistake happened for a good reason...and it all worked out. Thanks again Ted
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Old 08-16-2014, 09:24 PM   #9
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Paul, Love to see pace and cap members making money!!

Mike
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Old 08-16-2014, 09:53 PM   #10
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Mike, I agree with you. I would love to see every Pace & Cap member making money. Ted has been feeling very generous lately. I still remember his big givaway on the "Queen's Plate Day" at Woodbine a few weeks ago. I'm gonna look at the Saratoga's card for Sunday, to see if if I can carry on the winning streak
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