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10-06-2017, 02:09 PM | #1 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 20
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Creating a betting line
I have about 400 races under my belt now. I learned what i know from "money secrets at the racetrack." I like to muddle through things myself before seeing what others who have been successful do. I am happy with results so far but I am now curious if anyone here is also making their own lines. And if so, what is their general strategy for it.
Questions i have: 1. Do you create a 117% balance in lieu of the takeout? I have been using only 100% 2. Do you wager on any overlay or is there a limit. I only wager on horses i have at 6 to 1 or better or 14pts or better (what i consider a contender). 3. How do you separate the contenders? I think i have the most difficult time here. I actually capped myself at 40% because i think i could make too many errors with standouts. The favorites are often lower than that of course. I do have some horses that i have as contenders that i just don't assign enough value to but win at 3 to 6 to 1. This could be because i am not using the extra 17% in my line. I am also interested in data keeping. I simply record every horses odds then record the winning horses odds to see the percentage of times they win. I read recently to keep off odds on all your horses, but it seems too time consuming for the purpose. Perhaps i am not seeing the value or the ease in doing this. |
10-06-2017, 03:52 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Hi Tizlinda,
A personal oddsline should add up as close to 100% as possible. One trick advocated by guys like Dick Mitchell, Steve Fierro, and I believe Mark Cramer, is the "80/20" method. In other words, 80% of the line total are your true contenders, while the remaining 20% is the remainder of the field, your non-contenders. Fierro also has ready-made oddsline templates from his book "The Four Quarters of Horse Investing". The remaining questions are very open-ended. Others may answer better than I can, but contender separation/wager selection is wholely individual. What works for some might not do so well for others. |
10-07-2017, 11:09 AM | #3 | |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Odds Templates
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10-07-2017, 11:17 AM | #4 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Quote:
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10-07-2017, 06:48 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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FWIW, the Rx3 Oddsline on the Rx screen is intended to be a 80% probability line for the Top 4 ranked horses, with the remaining 20% for the rest of the field. We don't even translate probability to Odds beyond the Top 4 ranks.
Reviewing what's there briefly, I'm not sure that's displaying correctly as I originally intended it. But it's like that specifically because of Steve Fiero's concept in Four Quarters, a book which always influenced me and which I discussed extensively with Doc in his last year while he was commenting on RDSS. It's a good book and I highly recommend it. Here's a link to it in our own Amazon Store: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7106 Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 10-07-2017 at 06:53 PM. |
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